Opec+ set to greenlight September output boost
Opec+ is set to endorse a production quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day starting in September, after which it will halt any further output escalations, according to sources, as the group finalises the unwinding of voluntary cuts. The seven core members of Opec+ – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – have been increasing monthly production quotas for most of this year. Those increases have remained predominantly theoretical, as the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have significantly disrupted exports from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan.
Following September, the group is expected to halt output increases for the remainder of the year, according to one Opec+ delegate and one Opec+ source, as the alliance confronts potentially challenging discussions regarding new production quotas. The September increase would finalise a staged reversal of a 1.65 million bpd supply reduction initially agreed upon in 2023, at a time when the group still encompassed the United Arab Emirates, which exited Opec in May. Opec+ is conducting a review of the oil production capacity of its members to establish the output baselines for 2027, which will serve as the basis for setting quotas.
The pause after September would maintain approximately 2 million barrels per day of Opec+ cuts established in 2022 until the group determines the allocation of additional supply among its members. Some members of the group, including Iraq, are advocating for increased individual quotas to better align with their enhanced capacity.
