China announces talks on a trilateral meeting with Xi, Trump, and Putin
Beijing has officially acknowledged that it is in discussions regarding a potential meeting involving Chinese leader Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said this week in Beijing that China “is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state.” Nothing is set, but the three-leader gathering would take place this month on the sidelines of a regional summit in Shenzhen. If it occurs, it would be a significant event in history. Experts, however, suggest that the three leaders are unlikely to engage in any meaningful dialogue due to their conflicting interests; instead, they will likely convene for a photo opportunity, with China meticulously orchestrating the meeting. “I think it will happen. The question is the format and the content,” said Sun Yun.
“China wants the image but not the costs.” Beijing is the host of this year’s leaders summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, a 21-member grouping that includes the US and Russia. Trump is anticipated to visit Shenzhen for a third meeting with Xi this year, as they strive to uphold a delicate trade truce that is due to expire in January. In a sign that tensions persist, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a Friday video call with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng urged Beijing to take “concrete actions to fully implement its past commitments, particularly as they relate to agricultural purchases, rare earths, and other critical minerals,” according to a statement from Greer’s office. During his visit to China, Trump expressed interest in engaging with Xi and Putin to address nuclear arms control. However, Putin appears more inclined to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, excluding Kyiv from the conversation.
“Putin has the most to gain from a leaders’ trilateral, and the Russians are clearly behind the push for a meeting, which would be a diplomatic coup,” said Danny Russel. Trump, with his “crush on authoritarian strongmen,” would relish the meeting; however, it is evident that his advisers have cautioned him to avoid Ukraine as a subject of discussion, remarked Russel, currently a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Sun of the Stimson Center said Russia would likely use the summit to nudge China and the US closer to Moscow’s positions on Ukraine, while “China will have to manage Russian manipulation.”
China also would not engage in talks of arms controls or discussions about Ukraine or Iran, other than its diplomatic refrain that peace is important and wars should end, Sun said. Beijing’s biggest challenge may be the perception. The summit “should not be equated to three great powers dividing up the world,” she said. The meeting may amount to no more than a photo opportunity that would allow Putin to be seen next to US and Chinese leaders, said Craig Singleton. “But these photo opportunities have diminishing diplomatic returns,” Singleton said. “The spectacle may be historic without producing anything particularly consequential.”
