Bitcoin Rises as Corporates Buy Amid Record ETF Exits
Bitcoin rose beyond $65,000 Monday morning amid a sixth straight week of spot ETF outflows, a hawkish Federal Reserve debut, and a U.S.-Iran peace accord that boosted risk assets. The rise came as U.S. and Iranian officials made progress in peace discussions in Switzerland, building on last week’s memorandum of understanding that ended 100 days of conflict. Crude prices fell to their lowest level in three months after the accord reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which transports 20% of global oil. The bitcoin price rose to $66,230 late last week after geopolitical relief, but the macroeconomic environment reemerged. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh established a hawkish tone at his first FOMC meeting. Warsch pledged to return inflation to the 2% objective, prompted by the May CPI’s 4.2% reading. The July rate hike is 36% likely, according to CME FedWatch, and market expectations are for at least one 25-basis-point increase before the year ends.
The Federal Reserve’s tone has pushed the U.S. dollar index back to the 100.6–100.8 level, which has usually weighed on bitcoin prices. Spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. had a sixth week of net outflows. Data shows a $226.8 million outflow in the week ending June 18, resulting in $5.94 billion over six weeks, the largest consecutive weekly outflow streak on record. Galaxy Research reports a record $6.35 billion outflow from U.S. spot ETFs in the past 30 days. However, outflows have slowed. The first week of June saw a $1.72 billion outflow from the funds; the second week saw just over $226 million. Since funding rates are low and leverage has not increased, analysts believe spot order books, not speculative positions, are affecting recent price fluctuations. Analysts say investors are cautious due to the macro regime transition, while institutional and treasury-style purchasers offer the marginal bid. “That combination indicates an under-positioned market rather than an overheated one, allowing for upside if spot demand strengthens.”
According to the source, BTC/USD margin longs have been accumulating 10–25% from recent lows, a trend that has traditionally foreshadowed medium-term bottoms. Company purchasers showed no signs of withdrawing. Strategy announced Monday that it bought 520 bitcoin last week for $35 million at an average price of $67,068 for its third consecutive weekly buy. The firm now holds 847,363 BTC. To fund preferred stock dividends, the corporation increased its USD reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion. Strive, Inc. outbought Strategy in a historic bitcoin treasury week. The Dallas-based corporation bought 759 bitcoin for $50 million at $65,850 per coin, bringing its total to 19,864 BTC. Strive’s largest single-week acquisition in recent months is up from 73 BTC the week before.
The Bitcoin options market tells a more complex story than the headline price. One-week implied volatility has dropped from 60% to 36%, and the 25-delta put skew has declined from June highs, signalling less downside protection demand. Realised volatility exceeds expected volatility, with 1-month IV at 39% and over 42%. This means recent price swings exceeded options market forecasts. A large negative gamma cluster with $1.8 billion in short gamma is around $62,000. Analysts note that options traders continue to pay a premium for downside protection, maintaining high volatility premium and 25-delta skew indicators after the June decline. Bitcoin is over 50% lower than its October peak of $126,080. Future drivers include Warsh guideline modifications and CLARITY Act progress in Congress.
