World economy improves in second half of 2025, OPEC cuts 2026 production
OPEC anticipates a robust second half of 2025 for the global economy, while adjusting its supply forecast for 2026. OPEC stated on Monday that it anticipates the global economy will continue to demonstrate resilience in the latter half of this year, notwithstanding apprehensions regarding trade disputes, and has revised its projections for oil supply growth from producers outside the broader OPEC+ coalition for 2026.
In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026, following reductions made in April, asserting that the economic outlook remains strong despite concerns regarding trade. “The global economy has outperformed expectations so far in the first half of 2025,” OPEC stated in the report. “This robust foundation from the first half of 2025 is expected to offer support and adequate momentum into a solid second half of 2025.” Nonetheless, the growth trajectory is anticipated to ease somewhat on a quarterly basis.”
OPEC also stated that supply from nations not part of the Declaration of Cooperation – the formal designation for OPEC+ – is projected to increase by approximately 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, a decrease of 70,000 bpd from the forecast made last month. Reduced supply growth from outside OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, would facilitate the broader group’s efforts to achieve market balance. The swift expansion of U.S. shale production, alongside developments in other nations, has exerted downward pressure on prices in recent years.
