OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Ignite IPO Race
The IPO boom that investors have been anticipating seems to be transforming into a supernova. After announcing a funding round valued at $965 billion, more than doubling its valuation from February, Anthropic this week overtook OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, to become the most valuable frontier AI laboratory in the United States. Strong demand for Anthropic’s Claude, especially its coding functionalities, has driven the start-up’s annualised revenue from $9 billion at the end of last year to $30 billion in April and $47 billion this month. Anthropic’s new valuation considerably broadens the scope of this year’s IPO pipeline. The start-up is expected to file for a public offering before the end of the year. Its primary competitor, OpenAI, which was valued at $852 billion in March, is reportedly preparing to file in the coming weeks with the aim of entering the markets as early as September. Grasping the importance of this issue is essential for making informed decisions and engaging in strategic planning. It underscores the fundamental elements that could shape prospective results and economic trajectories.
Investors have been looking forward to a resurgence in IPO activity after the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign in 2022, which notably constrained capital markets. With three substantial IPOs approaching, investors are likely to face an unprecedented influx of new stocks. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is poised to make its debut next month in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. The company, valued at $1.25 trillion when it absorbed Musk’s xAI start-up earlier this year, could raise up to $75 billion, surpassing the funds raised by the current record holder, Saudi Aramco, during its public offering in 2019 by more than double. Together, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could potentially accumulate a total in their initial public offerings that rivals the aggregate raised by all U.S. venture capital-backed IPOs over the past decade, as suggested by the data. The impending tsunami of mega IPOs has sparked both euphoria and apprehension on Wall Street. SpaceX’s IPO filing has reignited interest in space exploration equities: The Procure Space ETF has seen a 65% rise since the start of the year, propelled by its two primary holdings, satellite operators PlanetLabs and ViaSat, both of which have more than doubled in 2026. The Roundhill Space & Technology ETF has experienced a 69% increase since its inception in March. Index managers are rapidly revising their criteria for index inclusion to accommodate this year’s notable IPOs.
In March, Nasdaq implemented new regulations designed to streamline the process for expedited entry into the Nasdaq 100, while S&P Dow Jones Indices, the overseer of the S&P 500, is contemplating similar adjustments. On Tuesday, Russell FTSE unveiled new regulations that could facilitate the inclusion of SpaceX in its indexes within five days post its initial public offering, with the objective of ensuring that its indexes “accurately reflect developments in the US equity market.” Some market observers express concern regarding the implications of altering the established regulations. Index eligibility criteria “aren’t” bureaucratic red tape, says Nancy Tengler. They embody the result of extensive analysis over decades concerning the attributes that enhance an index’s durability, reliability, and trustworthiness for the trillions of dollars that are benchmarked against it. According to Tengler, SpaceX meets the market capitalisation and liquidity criteria established by the S&P 500; however, it does not satisfy the profitability benchmarks. Furthermore, the public float, indicative of the share of stock available for trading in public markets, will be under one-tenth of the index’s 50% requirement.
Its float raises significant concerns for Tengler, particularly given that SpaceX’s expedited inclusion in major indexes will similarly accelerate its incorporation into index funds managing trillions of dollars in assets. “Forced buying into an index does not reflect genuine investor conviction; it manufactures artificial demand,” stated Tengler. Concerns emerge about the potential effects that interest in the trending issues of tomorrow could exert on the most coveted stocks of today. “There’s trillions of dollars of private capital that’s slated to come public over the next few years, which is great,” said Savita Subramanian. However, a surge in new AI stocks “potentially squeezes out and creates more competition” for established AI ventures. Whether the technology sector can accommodate mega-IPOs seamlessly is likely contingent upon the degree of investor appetite for exposure to artificial intelligence. So far this year, demand has been unquenchable. Memory and semiconductor stocks have witnessed a notable increase, and the impressive debut of AI chipmaker Cerebras earlier this month has not hindered their upward trajectory. Despite a decline in Cerebras’ stock since its initial trading day, it remains robustly positioned, trading 27% above its IPO price.
