Burnham Braces for Reform UK’s Challenge After Starmer’s Exit
Andy Burnham now appears poised to assume the role of Labour leader – and potentially UK prime minister – following Keir Starmer’s announcement of his resignation. In a speech delivered at Downing Street, Starmer indicated that his colleagues had convinced him of the necessity to step down from his position. It is reported that even those within his inner circle had discreetly suggested that he should resign. Burnham’s return to parliament intensified the pressure significantly. But how can this have occurred merely two years following Labour’s significant victory in the 2024 general election? Politics has become a complex and distinct arena in contemporary times. As Starmer has discovered, personality, trust, and likeability hold equal significance for governments and leaders alongside promises and delivery. In this context, Starmer’s prospects were determined when Labour MPs recognised the extent of his unpopularity among constituents. When Starmer led Labour into the election in 2024, he confronted the party’s longstanding adversaries, the Conservatives. This was a party in decline, and during its time in government, it failed to address the nation’s demand for transformation. And so Starmer achieved a decisive victory.
However, with two-thirds of voters supporting a party other than Labour, and a significant number of individuals abstaining from voting (resulting in the second lowest turnout since the post-war era), it indeed demonstrated a “loveless landslide.” Starmer struggled to consolidate the support of the 412 MPs at his disposal upon taking office, failing to leverage that substantial majority to forge a robust policy agenda with clarity and determination. Instead, he reversed his stance on key decisions and subsequently faced criticism following the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador when the depth of Mandelson’s connections to Jeffrey Epstein became evident. Burnham, the prime ministerial hopeful and newly elected MP for Makerfield, is not burdened by those catastrophic decisions in his public persona. If he were to assume leadership of the Labour party and consequently become the UK’s next prime minister, he would enter office with a markedly stronger mandate than the tepid backing that Starmer received.
Currently, there is a palpable excitement surrounding the “king of the north,” with Burnham openly asserting his achievements in revitalising Manchester. Yet he will encounter numerous challenges similar to those that Starmer has left in his wake. Currently, the primary political challengers are Reform UK, with the Green party playing a comparatively minor role. Labour has declined to a disappointing 19% in the polls, standing even with the Conservatives and slightly ahead of the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Nigel Farage’s Reform party, still establishing its presence in 2024, currently leads the polls at 24%. In the English local elections held in May, the “national equivalent vote,” which provides an estimation of how each party would have performed had every region of the country participated, indicated that Labour’s standing was even more dismal at merely 15%. To regain the vote share achieved in the 2024 general election, the next leader of the Labour party must enhance it by 14-18%. The new leader could achieve a significant portion of this figure by appealing to undecided voters. At present, 13% of respondents indicate to pollsters that they are uncertain about their voting intentions should a general election occur tomorrow.
One factor that influenced Starmer’s choice to withdraw was the magnitude of Burnham’s triumph in the Makerfield byelection, a constituency that was deliberately vacated for him to contest the Labour leadership. Securing over fifty percent of the total votes cast – surpassing the combined total of Reform UK and its right-wing competitors, Restore Britain – was presented as a testament to Burnham’s capacity to confront and prevail against the challenger parties. However, it is crucial to note that this occurred in a singular constituency, specifically within his own area in Greater Manchester. Just a few months ago, the Greens secured a seat in Greater Manchester. Burnham, obstructed by the Labour party from participating in that byelection, had actively supported the Labour candidate in that context. However, the Burnham effect was insufficient on that occasion. Initial indications suggest that Burnham’s victory in Makerfield resulted from consolidating the left within the political spectrum. It is probable that the magnitude of his victory is largely attributable to his ability to convince individuals who may have been inclined to support the Greens or Liberal Democrats to instead align with him.
That would not be nearly as straightforward in a general election, where those parties will be eager to engage in vigorous campaigning. However, it is possible that Reform has reached its maximum potential. The party may achieve success at the local level, yet struggle to translate that performance into a national context during a general election. It also encounters a distinct array of rightwing challengers, notably the emerging Restore Britain party alongside the Conservatives, whose leader Kemi Badenoch is gaining traction and successfully secured a seat from the prevailing SNP in a recent Scottish byelection. However, should Burnham manage to maintain his appeal, his greatest strength may lie in his capacity to bring together a coalition of strategic voters determined to prevent a government led by Farage and Reform. It’s hardly a resounding vote of confidence, but it could be the only path forward for a successful Labour party right now.
