Bitcoin’s Next Bottom May Be Taking Shape for October
The cryptocurrency community’s main concern since bitcoin’s steep and steady price drop in the last quarter of last year has been how much farther it could go. The next question concerns the eventual bottoming out, specifically when and where it will occur. After every drop, analysts started to speculate. When Bitcoin first fell to that level in February, its price was $60,000. Yet, it fell to $59,000, $58,000, and even fell below that on July 1 after a few months. As a result, there have been little changes to the figures at the bottom. The exact date was recently specified by renowned analyst Rekt Fencer, who used historical data. According to a market analyst’s tweet from August 13, there are 53 days (or 51 after two days) till the present market lull and slump ends.
This forecast is based on past Bitcoin market cycles, which for the most part have had bullish phases lasting about 1,064 days and bearish phases lasting about 364 days to reach their final low point. Despite its seeming simplicity, the pattern has shown impressive stability over the years. The exact number of days that Bitcoin’s bull cycle lasted from its low point in 2015 to its high point in 2017 was 1,064 days. It took an extra 364 days for the cryptocurrency’s price to hit rock bottom in December 2018 due to the protracted bear market. From the low point in 2018 to the high point in November 2021, history practically repeated itself. The market hit rock bottom in 2022 after another 364 days of falling prices. With time, it becomes better. The latest bull market for Bitcoin began in late 2022 and continued until October 2025.
Actually, another 1,064 days. Rekt Fencer predicts that the next bottom will appear on October 5, 2026, if the second half of this pattern follows suit with the same accuracy as the first. Rekt Fencer’s screenshot has gone viral in the cryptocurrency world. The reason for this is that it is surprisingly accurate. From the peaks of their respective cycles to the final lows of capitulation, the previous two major BTC bear markets took about 363 and 376 days, respectively. Using that range in conjunction with Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH suggests a possible bottoming timeframe of about October 4th and 17th this year. Recently, Ali Martinez discussed a very identical possibility; however, his dates fell somewhere between October 6 and 16. Excessive reliance on particular calendar patterns is problematic. Each of Bitcoin’s prior cycles occurred in a unique macroeconomic environment.
Spot ETFs, large institutional investors, corporate treasuries, a new regulatory environment, and much improved integration with traditional finance are all hallmarks of today’s market. An assortment of factors, including changes in interest rates, liquidity, exchange-traded fund flows, geopolitical events, and Federal Reserve policies, can derail even the most meticulous patterns. So, don’t take October 5 (or 6-16) as a given for when Bitcoin will inevitably hit rock bottom before soaring to new heights in the coming days, weeks, or months. But having a plan is always helpful, and October 2026 seems to be the month that every bitcoin investor has already marked on their calendar.
