China’s Export Growth Dips to 2.5% in March Amid Iran War Worries
As uncertainties increased due to the Iran war and its effects on oil prices and global demand, China’s exports increased by 2.5% in March compared to the same month last year, a considerable slowdown from the preceding two months. China’s customs office revealed March export figures on Tuesday, which was significantly lower than the 21.8% export increase for January and February and fell short of analysts’ projections. Compared to the 19.8% year-over-year growth in the first two months of this year, imports increased by 27.8% last month.
China’s strong exports in early 2026 were driven by technology-related exports, such as an increase in semiconductor shipments due to the global artificial intelligence boom. However, economists warn that the effects of the protracted Iran war may have an impact on the demand for Chinese exports globally this year.As the Iran war begins to impact global supply chains and demand, China’s exports have slowed, according to Gary Ng. According to a recent research note by Bank of America analysts led by Helen Qiao, demand is expected to decline as a result of the war’s energy shock, despite the notable recovery in China’s export growth in January and February.
The dangers will “arise from a persistent global slowdown in overall demand if the conflict lasts longer than currently expected,” the authors said. Over the past several months, China’s shipments to the US have been strained by US President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on Chinese exports and tensions between Washington and Beijing. As a result, China has increased its exports to other regions, such as Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. After being postponed because of the Iran war, analysts are also keeping a careful eye on Trump’s May travel to Beijing to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
For 2026, Chinese officials have set an annual economic growth target of 4.5 to 5%, the lowest since 1991. With a record-breaking USD 1.2 trillion trade surplus, China met its “around 5%” economic growth target for 2025 thanks to robust exports. Analysts predict that exports will continue to be a major factor in sustaining economic growth this year as a protracted decline in China’s real estate sector weighed on domestic demand and investments.
