The history of Iran-Israel animosity
Examining the historical origins of animosity between Iran and Israel
Historically, Iran and Israel did not always occupy opposing positions. Indeed, before 1979, the two nations upheld a strong relationship. Iran was among the initial Muslim-majority countries to acknowledge Israel following its establishment in 1948. During the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran and Israel maintained a relationship characterized by diplomatic, economic, and military cooperation. Both nations perceived Arab nationalism as a shared threat, with Israel regarding Iran as a crucial strategic ally situated on the outskirts of the Arab world.
However, this collaboration came to an abrupt end following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The new regime in Tehran severed all connections with Israel, relocated the Israeli embassy to the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and proclaimed Israel as an adversary of Islam. Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime commenced its overt support for anti-Israel militant factions, transforming the conflict from a matter of political rivalry to one of ideological confrontation.
The proxy network of Iran escalates its regional conflict with Israel.
Since that time, Iran has provided support and military resources to organizations including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Islamic Jihad Movement in the Palestinian territories. This network of proxies has engaged in numerous conflicts with Israel, notably in Lebanon and various confrontations in Gaza spanning from 2008 to 2024. Iran has extended its support to factions in Syria and Yemen over the years, aimed at countering Israel and undermining its interests.
What is the current status of Iran’s progress towards nuclear weapon development?
The nuclear programme of Iran has consistently been central to the apprehensions held by Israel. Israel has consistently viewed Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities as an existential threat. Throughout the years, it has initiated covert operations aimed at undermining Iran’s program, which includes the notorious Stuxnet cyberattack and the targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists. These efforts have decelerated, yet they have not halted Iran’s advancement. Experts caution that once Iran surpasses the 90 percent enrichment threshold, it may be capable of producing a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks—a situation that Israel asserts it will not permit.
What are the contemporary flashpoints in the Iran-Israel conflict?
The conflict has unfolded across various arenas in West Asia. Lebanon continues to be a pivotal arena. Hezbollah, Iran’s most formidable proxy, is situated in that region and has engaged in significant military confrontations with Israel, notably the conflict in 2006. It is estimated that Hezbollah has in excess of 100,000 rockets targeted at Israeli urban centers.
In Gaza, Iran provides financial backing and support to both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement. Notwithstanding the Shia-Sunni schism, their common animosity towards Israel serves as a unifying factor. Syria represents yet another significant flashpoint. Iran sustains a robust military footprint in the region, utilizing the area for the transfer of arms to Hezbollah. Israel regularly conducts airstrikes targeting Iranian assets and supply routes within Syria.
Recently, Iraq has surfaced as a new focal point. Militias supported by Iran have executed drone strikes against targets in Israel. In 2024, following Israel’s bombing of an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iran and its proxies initiated a significant drone and missile offensive. While the majority were thwarted with support from the US and Europe, Israel retaliated with military actions within Iran and Syria. Both parties subsequently retreated to prevent the escalation into a broader regional conflict.
Which entities provide backing to Iran and Israel in this regional power dynamic?
Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” comprises both state and non-state entities, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its distinguished Quds Force, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad Movement, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and a range of Shiite militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Iran extends its support to various smaller militant factions operating within Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Israel, in contrast, enjoys steadfast support from the United States. Washington allocates billions in military assistance, sophisticated defense systems such as the Iron Dome, and intelligence support. U.S. military operations extend to Iranian-affiliated militias operating within the territories of Syria and Iraq. Western allies, comprising the UK, Germany, and Italy, provide support both diplomatically and through collaboration in missile defense initiatives.
Although they do not have formal military alliances, a number of Sunni Arab states align with Israel’s apprehensions. Since the 2020 Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt have strengthened their relationships with Israel. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank maintains a stance of ideological opposition to Israel while, at times, engaging in coordinated security measures against Hamas.
What factors are contributing to Iraq’s emergence as a pivotal arena in this confrontation?
Iraq currently functions as a base for Iranian-aligned militias and a theater for proxy conflicts. Entities such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, operating under the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” designation, have asserted responsibility for assaults on Israeli military installations. The presence of these militias enables Iran to engage in indirect strikes against Israel, thereby circumventing direct confrontation.
Iraq’s geographical closeness to Israel renders it strategically important for the transfer of weapons and military strikes. Nonetheless, the Iraqi administration led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani faces mounting pressure to rein in these factions, as concerns grow that Israeli reprisals could exacerbate the nation’s instability.
The current US military presence in Iraq, comprising approximately 2,500 troops, serves as a deterrent. However, Washington’s strategy to withdraw by 2026 may diminish Iraq’s ability to resist Iranian influence and further alter the balance of power.
Are the conditions currently established for a comprehensive regional conflict?
The Iran-Israel conflict is perilously positioned for escalation, characterized by nuclear breakout potential, active proxy networks, and direct military exchanges. Iraq’s role as a proxy front, the accumulation of Hezbollah’s stockpiles, heightened Western engagement, and unsuccessful diplomatic efforts are all intersecting.
The outcome of this situation, whether it escalates into a full-scale war or devolves into an extended series of strikes and retaliatory actions, hinges on the choices made in the forthcoming weeks—both in Jerusalem and Tehran, as well as in distant capitals.
Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium approaches the threshold considered suitable for weapons-grade material.
The catalyst for this escalating tension is Iran’s expanding nuclear arsenal. A recent estimate by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicates that Iran currently possesses more than 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity, approaching the critical 90 per cent threshold necessary for the development of a nuclear weapon. That represents an almost 50 percent rise compared to earlier this year. The duration required for Iran to achieve a “break out” and construct a nuclear weapon is diminishing swiftly.
