Live Index – Mon, 30 Jun 2014 Premarket
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.08%) this morning are down -0.10% and European stocks are down -0.14% after German retail sales unexpectedly declined last month for a second month. Russia’s Micex Stock Index lost nearly 1% and the ruble weakened after Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on Russia’s credit rating to negative, citing geopolitical risk and the outlook for economic growth. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.44%, Hong Kong -0.13%, China +0.69%, Taiwan +0.93%, Australia -0.91%, Singapore -0.47%, South Korea +0.69%, India +1.25%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-week high on expectations that Tuesday’s data on China Jun manufacturing PMI will show improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity. Another positive for Chinese stocks are signs that the government is loosening banks’ restrictions on lending in an attempt boost lending and bolster the economy. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said that starting July 1 it will change the way it calculates banks’ loan-to-deposit ratios saying banks can include negotiable certificates of deposit sold to companies and individuals in the calculations, and the CBRC also said it will exclude loans advanced to small companies and the rural sector that are backed by bonds. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.49%) is down -0.42%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.52%) is down -0.48%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.52%) is down -0.47%. July copper (HGN14 +0.11%) is up +0.14%. Agriculture prices are mostly lower with Jul corn down -0.73% at a 1-week low ahead of this morning’s USDA data on Q2 quarterly grain stocks and 2014 planted acreage. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.03% at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.03% at a 3-week high after Eurozone Jun core CPI rose more than expected, which reduces the chances of further ECB monetary stimulus. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07% at a 5-week low. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.06%) are up +1.5 ticks.
Eurozone Jun CPI rose +0.5% y/y, unchanged from May and right on expectations. Jun core CPI rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y.
Eurozone May M3 money supply rose +1.0% y/y and +0.9% 3-month average, higher than expectations of +0.8% y/y and +0.8% 3-month average.
German May retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, the second straight decline, and Apr was revised lower to -1.5% m/m from the previously reported -0.9% m/m. On an annual basis, May retail sales rose +1.9% y/y, better than expectations of +1.0% y/y.
Japan May industrial production rose +0.5% m/m and +0.8% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
Japan May annualized housing starts fell -15.0% y/y to 872,000, weaker than expectations of -10.5% to 909,000 and the smallest number of starts in 1-3/4 years.
Today’s June Chicago PMI report is expected to show a -2.5 point decline to 63.0, exactly reversing the +2.5 point increase to 65.5 seen in May. Today’s May pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +1.2% m/m, adding to the +0.4% increase seen in April. None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today. There are no equity conferences this week.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC +1.44%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at B. Riley.
Affiliated Managers (AMG +0.95%) will replace Forest Labs (FRX -0.19%) in the S&P 500 Index as of today’s close.
Amedisys (AMED +29.81%) was upgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Sell’ at Deutsche Bank.
DaVita (DVA +1.87%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at Jefferies with a price target of $ 86.
Yahoo (YHOO +1.75%) rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after Piper Jaffray raised its outlook on the stock to ‘Overweight.”
Claren Road Asset reported a 4.96% passive stake in YRC Worldwide (YRCW +3.15%) .
Martin Marietta (MLM +1.61%) will replace U.S. Steel (X -0.31%) in the S&P 500 as of the close on July 1.
MSDC Management reported a 5.6% passive stake in Ring Energy (REI -2.76%) .
D.E. Shaw reported a 5.1% passive stake in Beazer Homes (BZH +2.60%) .
bebe stores (BEBE +0.64%) said it sees Q4 Same-Store-Sales in the negative low single digit range. The company was then downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at B. Riley.
Point72 Asset reported a 5.5% passive stake in TRI Pointe Homes (TPH -1.29%) .
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.08%) this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Friday closed slightly higher. A bullish factor for stocks was the +1.3 point increase in the final U.S. Jun University of Michigan consumer confidence to 82.5, better than expectations of +0.8 to 82.0. Negative factors included (1) valuation concerns with the S&P 500 Index trading at 16.6 times projected earnings, close to the highest valuation in 4 years, and (2) the prediction from UBS AG that with the end of the quarter approaching, fund managers may sell up to $ 20 billion in stocks as fund manages sell equities and buy bonds as they rebalance their portfolios. Closes: S&P 500 +0.19%, Dow Jones +0.03%, Nasdaq +0.46%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.06%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday rose to a 3-1/2 week high and closed higher. The main bullish factor was recent weak U.S. economic data that has pushed back Fed rate hike expectations as Citigroup cut its year-end forecast for the 10-year T-note yield by 40 bp to 2.95% from 3.35%. Gains in T-notes were limited after the U.S. Jun University of Michigan consumer confidence rose more than expected. Closes: TYU4 +0.50, FVU4 +1.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.026 (-0.03%) at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0004 (+0.03%) at a 3-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.07%) at a 5-week low. The dollar index Friday dropped to a 5-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) overall negative sentiment toward the dollar after recent weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data boosted speculation the Fed will keep interest rates at record lows for longer, and (2) strength in the yen as USD/JPY tumbled to a 5-week low amid speculation the BOJ will refrain from boosting monetary stimulus after Japanese inflation data rose and Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in over 16 years. Closes: Dollar index -0.181 (-0.23%), EUR/USD +0.00359 (+0.26%). USD/JPY -0.246 (-0.34%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.49%) this morning is down -44 cents (-0.42%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.52%) is down -0.0149 (-0.48%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed. Crude prices closed lower on speculation Iraqi forces will be able to stop insurgents from moving farther south in Iraq where most of the country’s oil output is located, the second largest in OPEC. Gasoline prices closed higher after U.S. Jun University of Michigan consumer confidence rose more than expected, which is positive for fuel demand. Closes: CLQ4 -0.10 (-0.09%) RBQ4 +0.0148 (+0.48%).
|US||0900 ET||Jun ISM Milwaukee index expected 60.0, May 63.49.|
|0945 ET||Jun Chicago PMI expected -2.5 to 63.0, May +2.5 to 65.5.|
|1000 ET||May pending home sales expected +1.2% m/m and -9.6% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and -9.4% y/y.|
|1030 ET||Jun Dallas Fed manufacturing index expected 10.0, May 8.0.|
|1100 ET||USDA weekly grain export inspections.|
|1200 ET||USDA Q2 quarterly grain stocks and 2014 planted acreage.|
|1310 ET||San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at the Montana & Utah Bankers Associations2014 Convention.|
|1600 ET||USDA weekly crop progress.|
|JPN||0000 ET||Japan May vehicle production, Apr +3.4% y/y.|
|0100 ET||Japan May annualized housing starts expected -10.5% y/y to 909,000, Apr -3.3% y/y to 906,000.|
|0200 ET||Japan May construction orders, Apr +14.9% y/y.|
|1950 ET||Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected 15, Q1 was 17. Q2 Tankan large manufacturing outlook expected 17, Q1 was 8.|
|1950 ET||Q2 Tankan large non-manufacturing index business conditions expected 19, Q1 was 24. Q2 Tankan large non-manufacturing outlook expected 20, Q1 was 13.|
|2130 ET||Japan May labor cash earnings expected +0.8% y/y, Apr +0.7% y/y.|
|GER||0200 ET||German May retail sales expected +0.8% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Apr -0.9% m/m and +3.2% y/y.|
|EUR||0400 ET||Eurozone May M3 money supply expected +0.8% y/y and +0.8% 3-mo avg, Apr +0.8% y/y and +1.0% 3-mo avg.|
|0500 ET||Eurozone Jun CPI estimate expected +0.5% y/y, May +0.5% y/y. Jun core CPI expected +0.7% y/y, May +0.7% y/y.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK May net consumer credit expected +0.7 billion pounds, Apr +0.7 billion pounds.|
|0430 ET||UK May mortgage approvals expected 61,800, Apr 62,900.|
|0430 ET||UK May M4 money supply expected -0.1% m/m and -0.3% y/y, Apr -0.2% m/m and -0.6% y/y.|
|CHI||2100 ET||China Jun manufacturing PMI (National Bureau of Statistics) expected +0.2 to 51.0, May +0.4 to 50.8.|
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|CenterPoint Energy Inc||CNP US||9:00||Investor and Analyst Meeting||Y 2014|
|CommonWealth REIT||CWH US||Annual General Meeting|
|Martin Marietta Materials Inc||MLM US||Special Meeting – M&A Vote|
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