Live Index – Fri, 13 Nov 2015 Premarket
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.12%) this morning are down -0.23% on negative carry-over from the -1.13% sell-off in the EuroStoxx 50 index on this morning’s weaker-than-expected Eurozone Q3 GDP report of +0.3% q/q and +1.6% y/y. However, the weak Eurozone GDP has boosted expectations for the ECB to expand QE at its next meeting in December and cut its deposit rate by 10 bp to -0.30%. Germany 10-year bund yields this morning fell by -3 bp to 0.58% on the Eurozone GDP report.
China’s Shanghai Composite index on Friday fell by -1.4% after Thursday’s post-close news that China’s aggregate financing fell to a 15-month low of 477 billion yuan ($ 75 billion) and was weaker than market expectations of 1.05 trillion yuan.
Asian stocks today closed lower on carry-over weakness from China’s stock market: Japan -0.51%, Hong Kong -2.15%, China Shanghai Composite -1.43%, Taiwan -1.17%, Australia -1.45%, Singapore -1.13%, South Korea -0.99%, India -0.99%, Turkey -0.27%.
The dollar index (ZNZ15 +0.09%) this morning is slightly lower by -0.035 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0025 at 1.0789 (-0.23%) on increased expectations for ECB stimulus at its next meeting in December. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is slightly lower by -0.02 at 122.59 (-0.02%). Dec 10-year T-note futures (ZNZ15 +0.09%) this morning are up +6 ticks on weak global stocks and the weak Eurozone GDP report.
Commodity prices this morning are up +0.33% on a rebound from yesterday’s losses. Dec crude oil (CLZ15 +0.43%) this morning is up +0.27 (+0.65%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ15 +0.29%) is up +0.0049 (+0.38%). Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ15 +0.40%) up +5.4 (+0.50%), Dec silver (SIZ15 +0.53%) up +0.80 (+0.56%), and Dec copper (HGZ15 -0.21%) down -0.008 (-0.35%). Dec corn (-0.14%) and Jan soybeans (-0.49%) are trading lower but Dec wheat is slightly higher (+0.05%). Softs are trading steady to slightly higher.
Eurozone Q3 GDP grew by +0.3% q/q and +1.6% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.4% q/q and +1.7% and slightly weaker than Q2’s report of +0.4% q/q and +1.5% y/y. The German Q3 GDP report of +0.3% q/q and +1.7% y/y was in line with market expectations and was mixed compared with Q2’s report of +0.4% q/q and +1.6% y/y. The French Q3 GDP report of +0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y was in line with market expectations and was an improvement from Q2’s unchanged q/q and +1.1% y/y.
China’s stock exchanges unexpectedly announced after Friday’s close that margin requirements will be raised to 100% from 50% starting on Nov 23. The higher margin requirements will reduce investor leverage and will be a bearish factor for Chinese stocks on Monday morning. However, the higher margin requirements should reduce the chances of China’s stock market seeing a new speculative bubble the size of the one seen in late-2014 and early-2015 before the bubble burst this past summer.
Syngenta rallied 8% after reports that China National Chemical Corp is in talks to buy the Swiss pesticide maker.
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct retail sales (expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Sep +0.1% and -0.3% ex autos), (2) Oct final demand PPI (expected +0.2% and -1.2% y/y, Sep -0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y) and Oct PPI ex food & energy (expected +0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Sep -0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y), (3) Sep business inventories (expected unch, Aug unch), (4) preliminary-Nov University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment (expected +1.5 to 91.5, Oct +2.8 to 90.0), (5) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s comments on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at the City Club of Cleveland.
There is 1 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tyco International (consensus $ 0.61).
U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.
Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.23% on negative carry-over from the -1.13% sell-off in the EuroStoxx 50 index. Thursday’s closes: S&P 500 -1.40%, Dow Jones -1.44%, Nasdaq -1.04%. The S&P 500 on Thursday tumbled to a 3-week low and closed sharply lower on weakness in energy and commodity producers after crude oil fell to a 2-1/2 month low and copper plunged to a 6-1/3 year low. Stocks also saw weakness on concerns about the global economy after ECB President Draghi said that “downside risks stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible.”
- Cisco Systems (CSCO +0.04%) is down by more than 4% this morning after, late Thursday, it lowered guidance on Q2 adjusted EPS to 53 cents-55 cents, below consensus of 56 cents, and said it sees Q2 revenue flat to up 2% y/y, weaker than estimates of up 5%.
- Illumina (ILMN +0.27%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Sigma-Aldrich in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on Nov 18.
- Yum! Brands (YUM -1.93%) climbed nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported China Oct same-store-sales grew 5% y/y.
- Applied Materials (AMAT -1.55%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 29 cents, higher than consensus of 28 cents
- Nordstrom (JWN +1.85%) plunged 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS ex-item of 57 cents, weaker than consensus of 72 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $ 3.40-$ 3.50 from a previous estimate of $ 3.70-$ 3.80, below consensus of $ 3.80.
- Syngenta AG (SYT -0.66%) surged over 14% in after-hours trading after ChemChina was said to be in talks to acquire the company.
- Fossil Group (FOSL -1.98%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $ 1.19, right on consensus, but reported Q3 revenue of $ 771.3 million, below estimates of $ 795.1 million, and said comparable same-store-sales were down -1%, weaker than consensus of up +1.4%.
- El Pollo Loco (LOCO -4.71%) dropped over 7% in after-hours trading after it cut its sales growth estimate for the year to 1.7% from a previous estimate of 3%, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to 67 cents-69 cents from an Aug estimate of 67 cents-71 cents.
- Blue Buffalo Pet (BUFF -4.58%) jumped over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 17 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to 60 cents, higher than consensus of 58 cents.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up +6 ticks on the weak Eurozone GDP report and this morning’s rally in Bund prices. Thursday’s closes: TYZ5 +4.50, FVZ5 +1.75. Dec T-notes on Thursday closed higher on safe-haven demand tied to the sharp stock market sell-off and on comments from New York Fed President Dudley and Chicago Fed President Evans who both said they expect a “gradual” pace of tightening once the Fed begins to raise interest rates. T-notes also received a boost on decent demand for the Treasury’s $ 16 billion 30-year T-bond auction that had a bid-to-cover of 2.41, better than the 12-auction average of 2.35.
The dollar index this morning is slightly lower by -0.035 (-0.04%). EUR/USD is down -0.0025 at 1.0789 (-0.23%) on increased expectations for ECB stimulus at its next meeting in December. USD/JPY is slightly lower by -0.02 at 122.59 (-0.02%). Thursday’s closes: Dollar Index -0.364 (-0.37%), EUR/USD +0.0071 (+0.66%), USD/JPY -0.25 (-0.20%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said that the Fed must send a strong signal that any interest rate increases will be gradual. In addition, EUR/USD received a boost after ECB Governing Council member Weidmann said the Eurozone economy is “not doing badly.”
|US||0830 ET||Oct retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Sep +0.1% and -0.3% ex autos.|
|0830 ET||Oct PPI final demand expected +0.2% and -1.2% y/y, Sep -0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y. Oct PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Sep -0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y.|
|0830 ET||USDA weekly Export Sales.|
|1000 ET||Sep business inventories expected unch, Aug unch.|
|1000 ET||Preliminary-Nov University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment expected +1.5 to 91.5, Oct +2.8 to 90.0.|
|1230 ET||Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at the City Club of Cleveland.|
|GER||0200 ET||German Q3 GDP expected +0.3% q/q and +1.8% y/y (nsa), Q2 +0.4% q/q and +1.6% y/y (nsa).|
|UK||0430 ET||UK Sep construction output expected +1.5% m/m and -0.4% y/y, Aug -4.3% m/m and -1.3% y/y.|
|EUR||0500 ET||Eurozone Q3 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +1.7% y/y, Q2 +0.4% q/q and +1.5% y/y.|
|Tyco International Plc||TYC US||Bef-mkt||Q4 2015 Earnings Release||Q4 2015||0.609|
|Edgewell Personal Care Co||EPC US||Bef-mkt||Q4 2015 Earnings Release||Q4 2015||0.694|
|Communications Sales & Leasing Inc||CSAL US||Bef-mkt||Q3 2015 Earnings Release||Q3 2015||0.625|
|JC Penney Co Inc||JCP US||7:30||Q3 2016 Earnings Release||Q3 2016||-0.556|
|Tyco International Plc||TYC US||8:00||Q4 2015 Earnings Call||Q4 2015|
|Celanese Corp||CE US||8:00||Investor Day||Y 2015|
|JC Penney Co Inc||JCP US||8:30||Q3 2016 Earnings Call||Q3 2016|
|Edgewell Personal Care Co||EPC US||10:00||Q4 2015 Earnings Call||Q4 2015|
|Tahoe Resources Inc||THO CN||10:00||Q3 2015 Earnings Call||Q3 2015|
|Copa Holdings SA||CPA US||11:00||Q3 2015 Earnings Call||Q3 2015|
|Communications Sales & Leasing Inc||CSAL US||11:00||Q3 2015 Earnings Call||Q3 2015|
|Questar Corp||STR US||12:00||Roadshow – New York||Y 2015|
|Reynolds American Inc||RAI US||Investor Day – London||Y 2015|
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