Live Index – Thu, 14 Jul 2016 Premarket
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.65%) are up +0.75% at a new all-time nearest-futures high and European stocks are up +1.27% at a 2-1/2 week high on speculation world central banks will increase stimulus measures in order to support economic growth. The stock indexes fell back from their best levels and GBP/USD jumped +1.45% to a 2-week high after the BOE unexpectedly voted 8-1 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and voted 9-0 to maintain the asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds, although the post meeting statement said that ” most members of the committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August.” JPMorgan Chase is up over 2% in pre-market trading and is leading financial stocks higher after it reported Q2 EPS of $ 1.55, better than consensus of $ 1.43. Energy producing stocks are also higher with the price of crude oil (CLQ16 +1.50%) up +1.18% and mining stocks and raw-material producers are up as well with the price of copper (HGU16 +0.20%) up +0.09%. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.95%, Hong Kong +1.12%, China -0.22%, Taiwan +0.10%, Australia +0.43%, Singapore -0.13%, South Korea +0.22%, India +0.46%. A rally in USD/JPY to a 2-1/2 week high gave Japanese exporter stocks a boost and led Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index higher. The yen has weakened and Japanese stocks have pushed higher this week after Prime Minster Abe’s party won upper-house elections and promised more stimulus.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.17%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.84% at a 2-1/2 week high.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.28%) are down -7.5 ticks.
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +14.2% with purchase sub-index +4.3% and refi sub-index +20.8%), (2) Jun import price index (expected +0.5% m/m and -4.6% y/y, May +1.4% m/m and -5.0% y/y), (3) the Treasury’s auction of $ 12 billion of 30-year T-bonds, (4) Jun monthly budget statement (expected +$ 23.0 billion, May -$ 52.507 billion), (5) Fed Beige Book, (6) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voter) speaks on the economic outlook at an event in Philadelphia, and (7) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
S&P 500 companies reporting earnings today: JPMorgan Chase (consensus $ 1.43), Blackrock (4.77), Delta ((1.42), Omnicom (1.33), Progressive Corp (0.33).
U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: AdvancePierre Foods Holdings (APFH), Ageagle Aerial System (UAVS).
Equity conferences this week include: none.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.06%) climbed over 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $ 1.55, higher than consensus of $ 1.43.
Procter & Gamble (PG +0.16%) was upraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at UBS with a 12-month price target of $ 96.
Newmont Mining (NEM +2.30%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Sell’ at Veritas Investment Research with a 12-month price target of $ 42.
Yum! Brands (YUM -0.57%) climbed over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 74 cents, and then forecast operating profit growth this year up “at least” 14%, higher than an April view of up 12%.
Eaon Corp PLC (ETN -0.14%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
The WSJ reports that Viacom (VIA -1.20%) is in talks to sell a 49% stake in its Paramount Pictures move studio to China’s Dalian Wanda.
LSB Industries (LXU -2.91%) dropped 2% in after-hours trading after it registered 4.5 million shares for top holder LSB Funding.
Coeur Mining (CDE +5.34%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ at RBC Capital Markets with a 12-month target price of $ 18.
Novovure Ltd. (NVCR -1.97%) jumped nearly 6% in after-hours trading after the FDA approved its second-generation Optune System for glioblastoma patients.
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF +1.12%) fell 1% in after-hours trading after it was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Bernstein.
Summit Materials (SUM -0.18%) said its preliminary Q2 adjusted EPS will be 43 cents-44 cents, below consensus of 47 cents.
Monsanto (MON -1.17%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after people familiar with the matter said the company has revived talks with BASF about a possible combination of their agrochemicals businesses.
Philadelphia Fed President Harker (non-voter) said “considering the economic projections, he anticipates it may be appropriate for up to two additional rate hikes this year and that the funds rate will approach 3% by the end of 2018.”
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.65%) this morning are up +16.00 points (+0.75%) at a fresh all-time nearest-futures high. Wednesday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.01%, Dow Jones +0.13%, Nasdaq -0.26%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday climbed to a new record high and closed slightly higher on a rally in mining stocks and raw-material producers after copper prices rose +1.22% to a 2-1/4 month high. Stocks were also boosted by the Fed Beige Book comment that “the outlook was generally positive across broad segments of the economy.” Stocks were undercut by a sell-off in energy producer stocks after crude oil prices fell sharply by -4.38%.
Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.28%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Wednesday’s closes: TYU6 +10.00, FVU6 +3.75. Sep T-bonds on Wednesday closed higher on the slide in stocks and on strong demand for the Treasury’s $ 12 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.48, higher than the 12-auction average of 2.34.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is up +0.073 (+0.08%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0019 (+0.17%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.88 (+0.84%) at a 2-1/2 week high. Wednesday’s closes: Dollar index -0.225 (-0.23%), EUR/USD +0.0029 (+0.26%), USD/JPY -0.20 (-0.19%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on the the steeper-than-expected decline in China May imports, which signals weakness in China’s economy that may restrain global growth and keep the Fed from raising interest rates. The dollar was undercut by the Fed Beige Book that said the U.S. economy grew “modestly” amid “slight” price pressures, which bolsters the case for the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ16 +1.50%) prices this morning are up +53 cents (+1.18%) and Aug gasoline prices (RBQ16 +2.07%) are up +0.0197 (+1.43%). Wednesday’s closes: CLQ6 -2.05 (-4.38%), RBQ6 -0.0517 (-3.62%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply lower on comments by Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Ali Kardor who said his country is pushing to raise its crude production to 4.0 million bpd by the end of Sep, earlier than previous forecasts for output to rise to 4.0 million bpd by year end. Crude oil and gasoline prices were also undercut by the unexpected +1.21 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline stockpiles (more than expectations of -1.0 million bbl) and the +0.7% increase in U.S. crude production to 8.485 million bpd, the first increase in five weeks.
|Thursday, July 14, 2016|
|US||0830 ET||Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +11,000 to 265,000, previous -16,000 to 254,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +6,000 to 2.130 million, previous -44,000 to 2.124 million.|
|0830 ET||Jun PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, May +0.4% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Jun PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y.|
|0830 ET||USDA weekly Export Sales.|
|1100 ET||Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS (previous $ 11 billion) to be auctioned Jul 21.|
|1115 ET||Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (non-voter) speaks at the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit in Victor, Idaho.|
|1900 ET||Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) speaks at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in St. Louis about economic conditions and the role of monetary policy.|
|CHI||2200 ET||China Q2 GDP expected +1.6% q/q and +6.6% y/y, Q1 +1.1% q/q and +6.7% y/y.|
|2200 ET||China Jun industrial production expected +5.9% y/y, May +6.0% y/y.|
|2200 ET||China Jun retail sales expected +9.9% y/y, May +10.0% y/y.|
|Friday, July 15, 2016|
|US||0830 ET||Jun retail sales expected +0.1% and +0.4% ex autos, May +0.5% and +0.4% ex autos. Jun retail sales ex auto & gas expected +0.3%, May +0.3%.|
|0830 ET||Jun CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y. Jun CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y.|
|0830 ET||Jul Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected -1.01 to 5.00, Jun +15.03 to 6.01.|
|0915 ET||Jun industrial production expected +0.3%, May -0.4%. Jun manufacturing production expected +0.3%, May -0.4%. Jun capacity utilization expected +0.2 to 75.1%, May -0.4 to 74.9%.|
|1000 ET||May business inventories expected +0.1%, Apr +0.1%.|
|1000 ET||Preliminary-Jul University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index expected -0.2 to 93.3, Jun -1.2 to 93.5.|
|1300 ET||San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) speaks at the NBER Monetary Economics Summer Institute on Monetary Policy.|
|1315 ET||Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (non-voter) and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (voter) participate in a facilitated discussion at an OMFIF meeting in St. Louis.|
|EUR||0200 ET||Eurozone Jun new car registrations, May +16.0% y/y.|
|0500 ET||Revised Eurozone Jun CPI, prelim-Jun -0.1% y/y. Revised Jun core CPI, prelim-Jun +0.9% y/y.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK May construction output expected -1.2% m/m and -3.5% y/y, Apr +2.5% m/m and -3.7% y/y.|
|BlackRock Inc||BLK||Bef-mkt||Q2 2016 Earnings Release||Q2 2016||4.774|
|First Republic Bank/CA||FRC||Bef-mkt||Q2 2016 Earnings Release||Q2 2016||0.986|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co||JPM||6:45||Q2 2016 Earnings Release||Q2 2016||1.431|
|Delta Air Lines Inc||DAL||7:00||Q2 2016 Earnings Release||Q2 2016||1.418|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co||JPM||8:30||Q2 2016 Earnings Call||Q2 2016|
|CSX Corp||CSX||8:30||Q2 2016 Earnings Call||Q2 2016|
|Omnicom Group Inc||OMC||8:30||Q2 2016 Earnings Call||Q2 2016|
|BlackRock Inc||BLK||8:30||Q2 2016 Earnings Call||Q2 2016|
|Yum! Brands Inc||YUM||9:15||Q2 2016 Earnings Call||Q2 2016|
|Delta Air Lines Inc||DAL||10:00||Q2 2016 Earnings Call||Q2 2016|
|First Republic Bank/CA||FRC||10:00||Q2 2016 Earnings Call||Q2 2016|
|Omnicom Group Inc||OMC||Q2 2016 Earnings Release||Q2 2016||1.334|
|Progressive Corp/The||PGR||Q2 2016 Earnings Release||Q2 2016||0.326|
|E*TRADE Financial Corp||ETFC||June 2016 Sales and Revenue Release – Activity Report||2016|