AUD / CAD - Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar

AUD to CAD Exchange Rate History: Commodities in Parallel, Policies in Contrast

The AUD to CAD exchange rate represents a unique currency pair where both countries share heavy reliance on commodities and resource exports. However, diverging trade partners, central bank policies, and regional economic shocks have caused frequent shifts in the relative strength of these two commodity-backed currencies.

1990s: Relative Stability Amid Growth

During the 1990s, AUD/CAD remained relatively stable, trading mostly between 0.85 and 0.95.

• Australia benefited from deregulation and rising demand in Asia, especially from Japan.

• Canada, meanwhile, was recovering from an early 90s recession and managing its debt-to-GDP levels.

Despite similar export-driven profiles, Canada’s tighter fiscal and monetary stance lent the CAD some strength, keeping AUD/CAD range-bound.

2000–2008: The Commodity Supercycle

Both Australia and Canada experienced a boom, driven by:

• Soaring demand for oil, gas, coal, and metals.

• Strong growth in China, which became Australia’s largest trading partner.

AUD/CAD rose steadily:

• From around 0.87 in 2002 to above 1.05 by 2008, with AUD outperforming.

Key factors:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates more aggressively than the Bank of Canada (BoC).

• Australia’s closer proximity and trade exposure to Asia amplified gains.

2009–2012: Post-Crisis Convergence

Following the 2008 global financial crisis:

• AUD/CAD dipped sharply to 0.89, but rebounded above parity as both economies recovered.

• Canada’s banking sector remained resilient, but falling oil prices capped CAD gains.

• The RBA maintained relatively high rates post-crisis, attracting capital inflows to AUD.

By 2011–2012, AUD/CAD hovered around 1.05, favoring Australia again.

2013–2019: Diverging Growth & Central Bank Signals

• China’s slowdown began to weigh on Australia’s mining sector.

• The RBA cut rates steadily, reaching record lows by 2019.

CAD, on the other hand:

• Benefited from a mild oil recovery and stable rate policy from BoC.

AUD/CAD dropped:

• From 1.05 in 2013 to below 0.93 by 2019, indicating CAD strength.

Volatility during this period reflected alternating commodity shocks and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.–China trade war).

2020–2024: Pandemic Shocks and Recovery Divergence

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted both economies but in different ways:

• Australia enforced strict lockdowns and border closures, delaying full economic recovery.

• Canada’s economy bounced back faster, thanks to stronger energy prices and aggressive fiscal policy.

AUD/CAD moved in wide swings:

• From 0.86 in 2020 to 0.99 by mid-2021, before falling again to 0.91 in late 2022.

By 2023–2024, both the RBA and BoC entered tightening cycles:

• But BoC hiked faster and sooner, boosting the CAD.

• Australia’s slower inflation surge delayed AUD strength.

As of April 2025, AUD/CAD trades around 0.91, showing modest CAD outperformance over the decade.

✅ Key

🟢 = AUD appreciated vs CAD
❌ = AUD depreciated vs CAD
⚠️ = Mixed / Volatile

📊 AUD to CAD Exchange Rate by Decade

The AUD to CAD pair is driven less by risk sentiment and more by subtle differences in monetary policy, China’s economic cycle, and regional energy trends. In 2025, the outlook hinges on:

• Global demand for energy vs. metals,

• Central bank rate cut timing,

• And resilience of trade with China and the U.S.