Wed Jan 07 2015
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Live Index – Wed, 07 Jan 2015 Premarket

PREMARKET WORLD NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.59%) this morning are up +0.63% and European stocks are up +1.29% amid optimism that weaker-than-expected Eurozone Dec inflation bolsters the case for the ECB to begin quantitative easing. The Eurozone Dec CPI fell a more-than-expected -0.2% y/y, the biggest decline in 5-1/4 years. Energy producers are leading the rise in stocks as the price of crude oil gained. The Greek 10-year bond yield climbed to a 1-1/4 year high of 10.196% and sent the Greek ASE Stock Index tumbling to a 2-1/4 year low. European economic growth remains divergent after the Italy Nov unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to a record high 13.4% (data from 1977), while the German Dec unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 6.5%, the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.01%, Hong Kong +0.83%, China +0.08%, Taiwan +0.35%, Australia -0.21%, Singapore +0.50%, South Korea +0.25%, India -0.29%. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 +0.02%) is up +0.06%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -1.02%) is down -0.67%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.48%) is down -0.52%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.38%) is down -0.33%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.46%) is up +0.58% at a new 9-year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.52% at an 8-3/4 year low after the larger-than-expected decrease in Eurozone Dec CPI strengthened the case for the ECB to begin large-scale asset purchases. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.63%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.12%) are down -4 ticks.

Eurozone Dec CPI fell -0.2% y/y, more than expectations of -0.1% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5-1/4 years. Dec core CPI rose +0.8% y/y, a larger increase than expectations of +0.7% y/y.

The Eurozone Nov unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.5%, right on expectations.

The German Dec unemployment change fell -27,000 to a record low 2.841 million, more than expectations of -5,000 and the most in 8 months. The Dec unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 6.5%, better than expectations of unch and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.

German Nov retail sales rose +1.0% m/m, better than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Nov retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.8% y/y, worse than expectations of +0.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Dec ADP employment report is expected to show a solid increase of +225,000, which would be mildly above November’s rise of +208,000 and the 6-month moving average of +222,000.  Today’s Nov trade deficit is expected to narrow modestly to -$ 42.0 billion from -$ 43.4 billion in October.   There are 3 of  the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  Monsanto (consensus $ 0.35), RPM International (0.55), MSC Industrial Direct (0.98).  Equity equity conferences during the remainder of this week include:  Citi Global Internet, Media & Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, and Evercore ISI Utility Conference on Thu-Fri.

PREMARKET U.S. STOCKS

Eli Lilly (LLY +0.50%) said it sees fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS of $ 3.10-$ 3.20, lower than consensus of $ 3.21 and that it sees fiscal 2015 revenue of $ 20.3 billion-$ 20.8 billion, below consensus of $ 20.88 billion.

Joy Global (JOY -2.07%) and Terex (TEX -3.23%) were both downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at KeyBanc.

The WSJ reports that 3G is discussing a possible acquisition of PepsiCo (PEP -0.76%) or Campbell Soup (CPB -0.67%) .

UnitedHealth (UNH -0.20%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Cigna (CI +0.40%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Sanofi (SNY +2.52%) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup.

Viking Global Investors reported a 5.5% passive stake in Mohawk (MHK -0.89%) .

J.C. Penney (JCP +1.86%) surged 19% in pre-market trading after it reported Nov/Dec same-store-sales were up 3.7%, at the upper end of guidance range of 2.0% – 4.0%.

Point72 Asset reported a 6.0% passive stake in Shutterfly (SFLY -3.85%) .

Point72 Asset reported an 8.7% passive stake in Kindred Healthcare (KND -1.44%) .

Nordstrom (JWN -0.63%) and Signet Jewelers (SIG -2.35%) were both initiated with an ‘Outperform’ at Cowen.

American Eagle (AEO +0.36%) was upgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Underperform’ at Cowen.

Micron (MU -2.69%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 97 cents, better than consensus of 92 cents, but reported Q1 revenue of $ 4.57 billion, below consensus of $ 4.62 billion. Micron also said it expects Q2 revenue of $ 4.1 billion-$ 4.3 billion, below consensus of $ 4.53 billion.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.59%) this morning are up +12.50 points (+0.63%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 2-1/2 week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.89%, Dow Jones -0.74%, Nasdaq -1.20%. Bearish factors included (1) the -0.7% drop in U.S. Nov factory orders, weaker than expectations of -0.5%, (2) the -3.1 point decline in the Dec ISM non-manufacturing index, weaker than expectations of -1.3 to a 6-month low of 58.0, and (3) a slide in energy producers after the price of crude oil slumped to a new 5-1/2 year low.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.12%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday rose to a 2-1/2 month high and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +19.0, FVH5 +12.25. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a plunge in the 10-year German bund yield to a record low 0.441% on speculation the ECB will embark on QE at its Jan 22 policy meeting, and (2) weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on Nov factory orders and the Dec ISM non-manufacturing index.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.46%) this morning is up +0.529 (+0.58%) at a new 9-year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0062 (-0.52%) at an 8-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.75 (+0.63%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly higher, but remained below Monday’s 9-year high: Dollar index +0.121 (+0.13%), EUR/USD -0.00429 (-0.36%), USD/JPY -1.255 (-1.05%). The main supportive factor was weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB is closer to large-scale sovereign-bond purchases and on concern that Jan 25 elections in Greece may put the anti-austerity Syriza party into power and lead to Greece’s departure from the Eurozone. Limiting gains in the dollar was a fall in USD/JPY fell to a 2-week low as a slide in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 +0.02%) this morning is up +3 cents (+0.06%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -1.02%) is down -0.0091 (-0.67%). Feb crude and Feb gasoline on Tuesday dropped to new 5-1/2 year lows and closed lower: CLG5 -2.11 (-4.22%), RBG5 -0.0334 (-2.42%). Bearish factors included (1) dollar strength, (2) weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on Nov factory orders and the Dec ISM non-manufacturing index, which signals reduced energy demand, and (3) expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA data will show crude supplies increased by +700,000 bbl.

 

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/07/2015
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.9% with purchase sub-index +1.3% and refi sub-index +1.1%.
0815 ETDec ADP employment change expected +225,000, Nov +208,000.
0830 ETNov trade balance expected -$ 42.0 billion, Oct -$ 43.4 billion.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1400 ETMinutes of the Dec 16-17 FOMC meeting.
1830 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans discusses the role and impact of monetary policy in an uncertain economy at an event in Chicago.
GER0200 ETGerman Nov retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Oct +1.6% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
0330 ETGerman Dec Markit construction PMI, Nov 53.5.
0355 ETGerman unemployment change expected -5,000, Nov -14,000. Dec unemployment rate expected unch at 6.6%.
UK0400 ETUK Dec new car registrations, Nov +8.0% y/y.
0430 ETUK Dec Lloyds business barometer, Nov 42.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Dec CPI expected -0.1% y/y, Nov +0.3% y/y. Dec core CPI expected +0.7% y/y, Nov +0.7% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Nov unemployment rate expected unch at 11.5%.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/07/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
RPM International IncRPM US7:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.55
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US7:30Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.976
Monsanto CoMON US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.347
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Eli Lilly & CoLLY US9:00Q4 2015 Guidance CallQ4 2015
Monsanto CoMON US9:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
RPM International IncRPM US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Acuity Brands IncAYI US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Rovi CorpROVI US17:30Investor and Analyst DayY 2015
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL USAnnual General Meeting

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