Live Index – Tue, 23 Dec 2014 Premarket
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.11% and European stocks are up +0.40% on expectations that U.S. Q3 GDP will be revised upward and Nov durable goods orders will show a solid gain. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.32%, China -2.05%, Taiwan +0.03%, Australia -1.12%, Singapore +0.05%, South Korea -0.26%, India -0.71%. The yield on the German 10-year bund fell back toward last week’s record lows after Greek Prime Minister Samaras failed in his second attempt to get lawmakers to back his nominee for president. If Samaras fails in the third and final vote on Dec 29, parliament will be dissolved and early elections will be called. National elections could empower the opposition party Syriza, which seeks a write-down on Greek debt. The Russian ruble rose to a 2-week high against the dollar after Russian lawmakers passed legislation to allow The Russian Deposit Insurance Agency to acquire stakes in troubled banks before they face bankruptcy proceedings in an attempt to support financial stability. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 +1.32%) is up +1.23%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 +1.00%) is up +0.93%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.16%) is down -0.16%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.47%) is down -0.37%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06% at a 2-week high. The British pound fell to a 1-1/4 year low against the dollar after the UK Q3 current account balance was revised down to a record deficit. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.04%) are unchanged.
UK Q3 GDP was left unrevised at 0.7% q/q, but on a year-over-year basis was revised lower to +2.6% y/y from the previously reported +3.0% y/y.
UK Q3 total business investment was revised lower to -1.4% q/q from the previously reported -0.7% q/q, the largest decline since Q2 of 2009. On an annual basis Q3 business investment was revised lower to +5.2% y/y from the previously reported +6.3% y/y.
The UK Q3 current account balance increased to a record deficit of -27.0 billion pounds from a downward revised -24.3 billion pound deficit in Q2, wider than expectations of -23.2 billion pounds.
Today’s Q3 GDP report is expected to be revised higher to +4.3% (q/q annualized) from +3.9%. Today’s final-Dec U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to be revised lower by -0.3 to 93.5 from the preliminary Dec figure of 93.8. Today’s Nov new home sales report is expected to show a small increase of +0.4% to 460,000, adding to October’s +0.7% increase to 458,000 and taking out the current 6-1/3 year high of 459,000 posted in June 2013. Today’s Oct FHFA house price index is expected to show a small +0.3% m/m increase to a new 6-1/3 year high, regaining some ground after being unchanged in September. Today’s Nov PCE deflator is expected to ease to +1.2% y/y from October’s +1.4% due mainly to the sharp decline in crude oil and fuel prices. Meanwhile, the Nov core PCE deflator is expected to edge lower to +1.5% y/y from October’s +1.6% y/y. Today’s Nov durable goods orders report is expected to show a strong increase of +3.0% due in large part to aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, today’s Nov durable goods orders report is expected to rise by +1.0% m/m, reversing most of October’s -1.1% decline. The Treasury today will sell $ 13 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $ 35 billion of 5-year T-notes. There are 2 of the Russell 3000 companies that report earnings today: Walgreen (consensus $ 0.75), American Realty Capital Properties (0.25). There are no equity conferences this week.
Walgreen (WAG +1.42%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 81 cents, better than consensus of 75 cents.
Kimberly Clark (KMB +0.53%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at BMO Capital.
Starbucks (SBUX +1.38%) was called a top pick for 2015 at Piper Jaffray.
DCT Industrial (DCT +0.71%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Stifel.
Halliburton (HAL -2.00%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Global Hunter.
Transocean (RIG -1.78%) was downgraded to ‘Reduce’ from ‘Neutral’ at Global Hunter.
Achillion (ACHN +9.01%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at RW Baird.
The U.S. Department of Justice said the U.S. filed a civil False Claims Act complaint against Omnicare (OCR +0.18%) alleging that it solicited and received millions of dollars in kickbacks from pharmaceutical manufacturer Abbott Laboratories (ABT +0.69%) .
EJF Capital reported a 6.6% passive stake in Encore Capital (ECPG +2.00%) .
Glen Capital Partners reported a 6.8% passive stake in Regional Management (RM +0.38%) .
Glenview Capital Management reported a 5.12% passive stake in Avis Budget (CAR +0.81%) .
Steelcase (SCS +0.67%) reported Q3 EPS of 29 cents, higher than consensus of 26 cents.
Chesapeake (CHK -7.25%) announced a $ 1 billion stock repurchase authorization.
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.10%) this morning are up +2.25 points (+0.11%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.87%, Nasdaq +0.28%. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in technology stocks, and (2) the +0.42 point increase in the Nov Chicago Fed national activity index to 0.73, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.11 to 0.25 and the highest in nearly 8 years. Negative factors included (1) weakness in health-care stocks and drug companies after Gilead plunged more than 10% when Express Scripts, the biggest drug-benefit manager in the U.S., chose a pill from Gilead’s competitor, AbbVie Inc., to be the sole hepatitis C treatment due to the high cost of Gilead’s medications, and (2) the -6.1% drop in U.S. Nov existing home sales to 4.93 million, weaker than expectations of -1.1% to 5.20 million and the lowest in 6 months.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.04%) this morning are unch. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed slightly higher: TYH5 +2.00, FVH5 -1.25. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected drop in U.S. Nov housing starts, and (2) the slide in crude oil prices to near a 5-1/2 year low, which reduces inflation expectations. Negative factors included (1) a rally in stocks, which curbed safe-haven demand for Treasuries, and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $ 104 billion in T-notes this holiday-shortened week.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is down -0.015 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is -0.0004 (-0.03%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07 (+0.06%) at a 2-week high. The dollar index on Monday posted an 8-1/2 year and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.172 (+0.19%), EUR/USD +0.00013 (+0.01%), USD/JPY +0.556 (+0.47%). A supportive factor for the dollar was weakness in the yen as USD/JPY climbed to a 1-1/2 week high after a rally in global stock markets reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. Dollar gains were limited after U.S. Nov existing home sales fell more than expected to a 6-month low.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 +1.32%) this morning is up +68 cents (+1.23%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 +1.00%) is up +0.0144 (+0.93%). Feb crude and Feb gasoline prices Monday closed lower. Closes: CLG5 -1.87 (-3.30%), RBG5 -0.0330 (-2.10%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 8-1/2 year high, (2) comments from Qatar’s Energy Minister who said “ the market is oversupplied by 2 million bpd, and (3) comments from Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi who said that Saudi Arabia will seek to maintain market share and that even if the price of crude fell to $ 20 a barrel the kingdom would do nothing to arrest the decline.
|US||0830 ET||Nov durable goods orders expected +3.0% and +1.0% ex transportation, Oct +0.3% and -1.1% ex-transportation. Nov non-defense ex-aircraft capital goods orders expected +1.0%, Oct -1.6%.|
|0830 ET||Q3 GDP expected revised to +4.3% (q/q annualized) from +3.9%. Q3 personal consumption expected revised to +2.5% from +2.2%. GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.4%. Q3 core PCE expected unrevised at +1.4%.|
|0900 ET||Oct FHFA house price index expected +0.3% m/m, Sep unch m/m.|
|0955 ET||Final-Dec U.S. consumer confidence index from University of Michigan expected -0.3 to 93.5, early-Dec +5.0 to 93.8.|
|1000 ET||Dec Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +3 to 7, Nov -16 to 4.|
|1000 ET||Nov new home sales expected +0.4% to 460,000, Oct +0.7% to 458,000.|
|1000 ET||Nov personal spending expected +0.5%, Oct +0.2%. Nov personal income expected +0.5%, Oct +0.2%.|
|1000 ET||Nov PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Nov core PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y.|
|1130 ET||Treasury auctions $ 13 billion 2-year floating rate notes.|
|1300 ET||Treasury auctions $ 35 billion 5-year T-notes.|
|1500 ET||USDA Q4 Hogs & Pigs inventory.|
|UK||0430 ET||Revised UK Q3 GDP, previous +0.7% q/q and +3.0% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Oct index of services expected +0.2% m/m and +0.7% 3-mo/3-mo, Sep +0.5% m/m and +0.8% 3-mo/3-mo.|
|JPN||n/a||Japanese markets closed for the Emperors Birthday.|
|Walgreen Co||WAG US||7:30||Q1 2015 Earnings Release||Q1 2015||0.749|
|Walgreen Co||WAG US||8:30||Q1 2015 Earnings Call||Q1 2015|
|Family Dollar Stores Inc||FDO US||10:00||Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting – M&A Vote||Y 2014|
|American Realty Capital Properties Inc||ARCP US||Q3 2014 Earnings Release||Q3 2014||0.246|
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