Live Index – Tue, 15 Jul 2014 Premarket
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.08%) this morning are down -0.11% and European stocks are down -0.86% after German investor confidence fell more than expected to the lowest in 19 months. Portuguese banking concerns are another negative for stocks after Banco Espirito Santo SA’s stock price slumped 13% as Rioforte Investments SA, a holding company of the troubled Espirito Santo group, has 837 million euros ($ 1.2 billion) of short-term debt obligations due today. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.64%, Hong Kong +0.49%, China +0.15%, Taiwan +0.51%, Australia unch, Singapore +0.01%, South Korea +1.22%, India +0.89%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index shook off early losses and climbed to a 4-week high after China new yuan loans rose more than expected and M2 money supply grew at the fastest pace in 10 months. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 1-week high as the BOJ maintained its record stimulus measures following its 2-day policy meeting and after BOJ Governor Kuroda signaled confidence in the central bank’s efforts to push inflation up to its 2% objective. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.67%) is down -0.66%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.14%) is down -0.30%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.47%) is up +0.31%. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.23%) is down -0.20%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is up +0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.08%) are up +3 ticks.
The German Jul ZEW survey of expectations for economic growth fell for a seventh month as it dropped -2.7 points to 27.1, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.6 to 28.2 and the lowest in 19 months. The Jul ZEW survey current situation fell -5.9 to 61.8, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3 to 67.4.
China Jun new yuan loans increased by 1.080 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 955.0 billion yuan and the most in 5 months. The Jun M2 money supply, China’s broadest measure of money supply, rose +14.7% y/y, more than expectations of +13.6% y/y and the highest in 10 months.
UK Jun CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y. Jun core CPI rose +2.0% y/y, higher than expectations of +1.7% y/y and matched April’s increase as the most in 9 months.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen today will appear before the Senate Banking Committee to deliver the Fed’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Today’s June retail sales report is expected to show a strong increase of +0.6% and +0.5% ex-autos, improving from May’s relatively weak report of +0.3% and +0.1% ex-autos. Today’s July Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a -2.28 point decline to 17.00, more than reversing June’s small increase of +0.27 points to 19.28.
There are eight of the S&P 500 companies that repor earnings today with notable reports including: Goldman Sachs (consensus $ 3.09), JPMorgan Chase (1.31), Intel (0.52), and Yahoo (0.38). There are no equity conferences this week.
Goldman Sachs (GS +1.33%) reported Q2 EPS of $ 4.10, higher than consensus of $ 3.05.
Reynolds American (RAI +2.32%) will acquire Lorillard (LO +1.83%) in a transaction valued at $ 27.4 billion.
Lexmark (LXK +1.15%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Bernstein.
Kroger (KR +0.90%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at BMO Capital with a price target of $ 58.
Progressive (PGR -0.08%) was upgraded to ‘Equal-Weight’ from ‘Underweight’ at Evercore.
Albemarle (ALB +0.86%) and Rockwood Holdings (ROC +0.28%) announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Albemarle will acquire all outstanding shares of Rockwood in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $ 6.2 billion.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.88%) reported Q2 EPS of $ 1.59, well above consensus of $ 1.31.
Comerica (CMA +0.14%) reported Q2 EPS of 81 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.
Google (GOOG +0.98%) was initiated with an ‘Outperform’ at FBR Capital with a price target of $ 674.
Valero (VLO -0.36%) is down over 3% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q2 EPS of $ 1.10-$ 1.25, weaker than consensus of $ 1.39.
Intel (INTC +0.77%) was initiated with an ‘Outperform’ at Imperial Capital with a price target of $ 37.
Apollo Education (APOL -0.10%) slid over 6% in after-hours trading after the U.S. Department of Education said that it intends to conduct an ordinary course program review of the University of Phoenix’s administration of federal student financial aid.
Spirit Airlines (SAVE +0.34%) rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading when Lone Pine Capital reported a 6.0% passive stake in the company.
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.08%) this morning are down -2.25 points (-0.11%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after Eurozone banking system concerns receded when Portugal’s Banco Espiritos Santo SA’s parent sold a 4.99% stake to meet loan repayments, (2) comments from Fed Chair Yellen that the U.S. economy is “going to require an unusually accommodative monetary policy” even after it is back on track, and (3) optimism that Q2 S&P 500 company stock earnings results will come in better than expected. Closes: S&P 500 +0.48%, Dow Jones +0.66%, Nasdaq +0.64%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.08%) this morning are up +3 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices Monday closed lower. Bearish factors include (1) reduced Eurozone banking system concerns after Banco Espiritos Santo SA’s parent sold a 4.99% stake to meet loan repayments, and (2) the rally in stocks that curbed safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Closes: TYU4 -6.5, FVU4 -4.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is trading up +0.022 (+0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.08%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04 (+0.04%). The dollar index on Monday closed little changed as prices consolidated ahead of Tuesday’s testimony on the economy by Fed Chair Yellen to the Senate Banking Committee. Gains in EUR/USD were muted after the IMF said it sees risk of Eurozone stagnation amid stalled reforms and that the ECB should consider asset buying if inflation remains low. Closes: Dollar index unch, EUR/USD +0.00129 (+0.09%). USD/JPY +0.17 (0.17%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.67%) this morning is down -67 cents a barrel (-0.66%) and Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.14%) is down -0.0089 (-0.30%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher. Aug crude oil rebounded from a 1-3/4 month low and settled higher after a rally in stocks bolstered the demand prospects for crude. Gains were limited on signs of increased supplies after a spokesman for Libya’s state-run National Oil Company said the country’s oil production has risen to 470,000 bpd from a previous estimate last week of 350,000 bpd. Closes: CLQ4 +0.31 (+0.31%), RBQ4 +0.0196 (+0.67%).
|US||0830 ET||Jul Empire manufacturing index expected -2.28 to 17.00, Jun +0.27 to 19.28.|
|0830 ET||Jun retail sales expected +0.6% and +0.5% ex autos, May +0.3% and +0.1% ex autos.|
|0830 ET||Jun import price index expected +0.4% m/m and +1.1% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.4% y/y.|
|1000 ET||May business inventories expected +0.6%, Apr +0.6%.|
|1000 ET||Fed Chair Janet Yellen appears before the Senate Banking Committee to deliver the Feds Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.|
|JPN||0200 ET||Revised Japan Jun machine tool orders.|
|n/a||BOJ announces interest rate decision.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK Jun CPI expected -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, May -0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Jun core CPI expected +1.7% y/y, May +1.6% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Jun RPI expected unch m/m and +2.5% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y. Jun RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +2.5% y/y, May +2.5% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK Jun PPI input prices expected +0.1% m/m and -4.5% y/y, May -0.9% m/m and -5.0% y/y.|
|0430 ET||Jun PPI output prices expected +0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y, May -0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y. Jun PPI output core expected unch m/m and +1.0% y/y, May unch m/m and +1.0% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK May ONS house price expected +10.1% y/y, Apr +9.9% y/y.|
|GER||0500 ET||German Jul ZEW survey business expectations expected -1.6 to 28.2, Jun 29.8. Jul ZEW current situation expected -0.3 to 67.4, Jun 67.7.|
|CHI||2200 ET||China Jun industrial production expected +9.0% y/y, May +8.8% y/y.|
|2200 ET||China Jun retail sales expected +12.5% y/y, May +12.5% y/y.|
|2200 ET||China Q2 GDP expected +1.8% q/q and +7.4% y/y, Q1 +1.4% q/q and +7.4% y/y.|
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|Charles Schwab Corp/The||SCHW US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2014 Sales and Revenue Release – Activity Report||Q2 2014|
|Comerica Inc||CMA US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||0.762|
|Johnson & Johnson||JNJ US||Bef-mkt||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||1.549|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co||JPM US||7:00||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||1.306|
|Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The||GS US||7:30||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||3.089|
|Comerica Inc||CMA US||8:00||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co||JPM US||8:30||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|Johnson & Johnson||JNJ US||8:30||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The||GS US||10:30||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|Yahoo! Inc||YHOO US||17:00||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|Cintas Corp||CTAS US||17:00||Q4 2014 Earnings Call||Q4 2014|
|Intel Corp||INTC US||17:00||Q2 2014 Earnings Call||Q2 2014|
|CSX Corp||CSX US||Aft-mkt||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||0.522|
|Yahoo! Inc||YHOO US||Aft-mkt||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||0.379|
|Cintas Corp||CTAS US||Aft-mkt||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||0.751|
|Intel Corp||INTC US||Aft-mkt||Q2 2014 Earnings Release||Q2 2014||0.524|