Live Index – Thu, 15 May 2014 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.16%) this morning are down -0.07% and European stocks are down -0.04% after the Eurozone economy grew less than expected last quarter. European government bond yields tumbled, with the 10-year German bund yield at an 11-3/4 month low of 1.352%, on the prospects of additional ECB easing measures after ECB Vice President Constancio said policy makers are prepared to add more stimulus if needed. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.75%, Hong Kong +0.66%, China -1.30%, Taiwan +0.06%, Australia +0.26%, Singapore +0.41%, South Korea -0.01%, India +0.38%. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.41%) is down -0.31%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.09%) is down -0.11%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.05%) is down -0.08%. July copper (HGN14 -0.02%) is up +0.13%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.24%) is up +0.24% at a 5-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.43% at a 2-1/2 month low as the weaker-than-expected Eurozone Q1 GDP increases the chances that the ECB will provide more stimulus. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 unch) are down -1 tick.

ECB Vice President Constancio said that ECB policy makers have “reaffirmed our forward guidance and stressed that we are determined to act swiftly if required and do not rule out further monetary easing.”

Eurozone Q1 GDP rose +0.2% q/q and +0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% q/q and +1.1% q/q

Eurozone Apr CPI was left unrevised at +0.7% y/y and Apr core CPI was also left unrevised at +1.0% y/y.

German Q1 GDP rose +0.8% q/q, better than expectations of +0.7% q/q and the most since Q1 2011. On a year-over-year basis Q1 GDP rose +2.5% y/y (nsa), right on expectations.

Japan Apr consumer confidence fell -0.5 to 37.0, less than expectations of -0.8 to 36.7 but still the lowest level in 2-1/2 years.

Japan Q1 GDP rose +1.5% q/q and +5.9% q/q annualized, better than expectations of +1.0% q/q and +4.2% q/q annualized and the fastest pace of expansion since Q3 2011. The Q1 GDP deflator was unch y/y, higher than expectations of -0.1% y/y and the most since Q3 2009.

Japan Q1 GDP consumer spending rose +2.1% q/q, right on expectations and the most since Q1 1997 as consumers stepped up purchases ahead of the first sales tax increase in 17 years last month. Q1 GDP business spending rose +4.9% q/q, over double expectations of +2.1% q/q and the most since Q4 2011.

Japan Mar tertiary industry index rose +2.4% m/m, higher than expectations of +2.2% m/m and the most in 25 years.

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a slight increase of +1,000 to 320,000 following last week’s sharp decline of -26,000 to 319,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a small increase of +5,000 to 2.690 million after last week’s decline of -76,000 to 2.685 million. Today’s April CPI is expected to jump to +2.0% y/y from +1.5% in March, but the April core CPI is expected to be unchanged from March at +1.7% y/y. Today’s April industrial production report is expected to be unchanged, pausing after the sharp increases of +1.2% in Feb and +0.7% in March. Today’s May NAHB housing market index is expected to show a +2 point increase to 49, adding to the small +1 point increase to 47 seen in April.

There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Wal-Mart (consensus $ 1.15), CA Inc (0.59), Kohl’s (0.63), Applied Materials (0.28), Autodesk (0.21), and Nordstrom (0.68). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace and Defense Investor Day on Wed-Thu, JP Morgan Cazenove Business Service Conference on Thu, JP Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on Thu, JP Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on Thu, and Janney Spring Growth Conference on Fri.

Wal-Mart (WMT -0.51%) reported Q1 EPS of $ 1.10, below consensus of $ 1.15.

Kohl’s (KSS -3.33%) reported Q1 EPS of 60 cents, weaker than consensus of 63 cents.

Flowers Foods (FLO -1.80%) reported Q1 EPS with-items 29 cents, right on consensus, although Q1 revenue of $ 1.16 billion was below consensus of $ 1.22 billion.

Twitter (TWTR -1.62%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underweight’ at Atlantic Equities.

Southwestern Energy (SWN +0.02%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Conviction Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Teekay ({=TK reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 5 cents, much better than consensus for a -15 cent loss.

A Phase I study showed AstraZeneca’s (AZN -0.09%) AZD9291 drug is effective in over 60% of patients with non-small cell lung cancer that no longer respond to other therapies due to a genetic mutation known as T790M.

Jack in the Box (JACK -2.35%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 51 cents, below consensus of 52 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $ 2.25-$ 2.35, below consensus of $ 2.35.

Vipshop (VIPS +2.40%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 63 cents, well above consensus of 48 cents.

Agilent (A -1.72%) reported Q2 EPS of 72 cents, lower than consensus of 73 cents, and said it sees Q3 EPS of 72 cents-74 cents, weaker than consensus of 79 cents.

Cisco (CSCO -0.22%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 51 cents, better than consensus of 48 cents.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.16%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.07%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.47%, Dow Jones -0.61%, Nasdaq -0.50%. Bearish factors included (1) profit-taking and long liquidation after the recent rally in the S&P 500 and the Dow to Tuesday’s record highs, and (2) increased concern that escalation of civil unrest in Ukraine may prompt Russia to send troops into the country after Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Ukraine “is as close to civil war as you can get.”

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 unch) this morning are down -1 tick. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher as the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 6-1/2 month low of 2.52%: TYM4 +18.00, FVM4 +9.00. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds which surged to an 11-1/2 month high on speculation the ECB will boost its stimulus measures next month, and (2) weakness in stocks that spurred safe-haven demand for Treasuries.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.24%) this morning is up +0.196 (+0.24%) at a 5-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0059 (-0.43%) at a 2-1/2 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04 (+0.04%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower: Dollar index -0.0702 (-0.09%), EUR/USD +0.00117 (+0.09%), USD/JPY -0.366 (-0.36%). The main bearish factor for the dollar was weaker interest rate differentials for the dollar after the U.S. 10-year T-note yield tumbled to a 6-1/2 month low. Strength in EUR/USD was limited on speculation the ECB will boost its easing measures when it meets next month after ECB Executive Board member Praet said the ECB is considering stimulus options and “we are preparing a range of measures.”

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.41%) this morning is down -32 cents (-0.31%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.09%) is down -0.0032 (-0.11%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with Jun crude at a 3-week high and Jun gasoline at a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the -592,000 bbl drop in crude inventories to a 5-1/3 yr low at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, (2) the unexpected -772,000 bbl decline in weekly EIA gasoline supplies, less than expectations of +100,000 bbl, and (3) the -1.124 million bbl drop in distillate stockpiles vs expectations of +400,000 bbl. Closes: CLM4 +0.67 (+0.66%). RBM4 +0.0391 (+1.33%).