Live Index – Fri, 28 Feb 2014 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.11%) this morning are down -0.15% and European stocks are down -0.56% ahead of an expected downward revision to U.S. Q4 GDP. German bunds declined and EUR/USD rose after the Eurozone Feb CPI estimate rose a more-than-expected +0.8% y/y, which reduces pressure on the ECB to add to its stimulus measures. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.55%, Hong Kong +0.04%, China +1.15%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia -0.12%, Singapore +0.45%, South Korea +0.05%, India +0.63%. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 -0.17%) is down -0.08%. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.36%) is down -0.31%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.26%) is down -0.19%. March copper (HGH14 +0.05%) is up +0.11%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.51%) is down -0.46% at a 2-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.61% at a 1-3/4 month high as stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data dampens speculation the ECB will add to stimulus when it convenes next week. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.22%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.12%) are down -6 ticks.

The Feb Eurozone CPI estimate rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y. The Feb core CPI climbed +1.0% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.8% y/y.

The Eurozone Jan unemployment rate was unch at 12.0%, right on expectations.

German Jan retail sales rose +2.5% m/m, better than expectations of +1.0% m/m and the largest monthly gain in 6-3/4 years. On an annual basis, Jan retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.9% y/y, better than expectations of a -1.7% y/y decline.

UK Feb nationwide house prices rose +0.6% m/m and +9.4% y/y, better than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +9.0% y/y with the +9.4% y/y gain the largest annual increase in 3-1/2 years.

Japan Jan industrial production rose +4.0% m/m, the most in 2-1/2 years and stronger than expectations of +2.8% m/m. On an annual basis, Jan industrial production rose +10.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +9.4% y/y and the most in 1-3/4 years.

Japan Jan retail sale rose +1.4% m/m and +4.4% y/y, better than expectations of +1.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y

Japan Jan national CPI climbed +1.4% y/y, higher than expectations of +1.3% y/y. Jan national CPI ex food & energy rose +0.7% y/y, right on expectations.

The Japan Jan jobless rate was unch at a 6-1/2 year low of 3.7%, right on expectations. The Jan job-to-applicant ratio rose +0.1 to 1.04, right on expectations and the highest in 6-1/2 years.

Japan Jan overall household spending rose +1.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% y/y.

Today’s Q4 GDP report is expected to be revised lower to +2.5% (q/q annualized) from the preliminary report of +3.2%. The downward revision is expected to stem mainly from an expected downward revision in Q4 personal consumption to +2.9% from +3.3%. Today’s Feb Chicago PMI is expected to show a -3.2 point decline to 56.4, adding to the -1.2 point decline to 59.6 seen in January. Today’s final-Feb U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to be unchanged from early-Feb at 81.2. Today’s Jan pending home sales report is expected to show a +1.8% m/m increase, recovering a bit after the sharp -8.7% drop seen in December. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Iron Mountain (consensus $ 0.22), NRG Energy (0.23), Pepco Holdings (0.21). There are no equity conferences today.

Iron Mountain (IRM -0.42%) reported Q4 EPS of 15 cents, well below consensus of 22 cents.

Pepco Holdings (POM -0.92%) reported Q4 EPS of 24 cents, higher than consensus of 21 cents.

Dominion (D -0.26%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Argus due to valuation.

Crane (CR -0.15%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup.

Southwestern Energy (SWN +1.43%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 54 cents, better than consensus of 53 cents.

Universal Health (UHS -0.28%) reported Q4 EPS of $ 1.24, well ahead of consensus of $ 1.08.

MasTec (MTZ -0.39%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 53 cents, consensus 52 cents.

Gabelli reported an 8.08% stake in Zale (ZLC +0.37%) .

Esterline (ESL +0.87%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $ 1.08, stronger than consensus of $ 1.05.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK +2.83%) slumped 14% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $ 4.04, higher than consensus of $ 3.80, but then lowered guidance on Q1 EPS to a loss of -16 cents, well below consensus of a 10 cent profit.

Monster Beverage (MNST +0.23%) reported Q4 EPS of 44 cents, weaker than consensus of 46 cents.

Salesforce.com (CRM +3.89%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, better than consensus of 6 cents.

Ross Stores (ROST +0.86%) reported Q4 EPS $ 1.02, right on consensus, but reported Q4 revenue of $ 2.74 billion, slightly below consensus of $ 2.75 billion.

Gap (GPS -0.52%) reported Q4 EPS of 68 cents, higher than consensus of 66 cents.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.11%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.15%). The S&P 500 on Thursday opened lower on geopolitical concerns from the civil unrest in Ukraine, but shook off early losses and moved higher after U.S. Jan durable goods ex-transportation unexpectedly rose +1.1%, better than expectations of a -0.3% decline. Stock prices moved even higher after Fed Chair Yellen said the Fed may slow its tapering regime should the economy weaken. Closes: S&P 500 +0.49%, Dow Jones +0.46%, Nasdaq 100 +0.63%.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.12%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices Thursday posted a 3-week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand from the civil unrest in Ukraine after Russia held troop exercises on its western border and put jet fighters on alert, and (2) the unexpected increase in weekly U.S. jobless claims. Prices came off of their best levels after U.S. Jan durable goods orders ex-transportation unexpectedly increased. Closes: TYH4 +7.50, FVH4 +3.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.51%) this morning is down -0.371 (-0.46%) at a 2-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0084 (+0.61%) at a 1-3/4 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.22 (-0.22%). The dollar index on Thursday fell back from a 2-week high and closed lower after a rally in stocks reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. EUR/USD fell to a 2-week low after German Feb CPI eased to a 3-1/2 year low of +1.0% y/y, which boosted speculation the ECB may expand its easing measures at its meeting next week. EUR/USD recovered its losses, though, and closed higher after the IMF said it is “ready to respond” to aid requests from the Ukraine, which boosted the hryvnia and was positive for EUR/USD. Closes: Dollar index -0.144 (-0.18%), EUR/USD +0.00237 (+0.17%), USD/JPY -0.230 (-0.22%).

Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 -0.17%) this morning is down -8 cents (-0.08%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.36%) is down -0.0093 (-0.31%). Apr crude and gasoline prices Thursday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) the unexpected rise in U.S weekly jobless claims, and (2) comments from Fed Chair Yellen who reiterated that the Fed will maintain its pace of tapering QE3. Bullish factors included strength in stocks and the weaker dollar. Closes: CLJ4 -0.19 (-0.19%), RBJ4 -0.0252 (-0.84%).