Live Index – Wed, 15 Jun 2016 Premarket
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.21%) are up +0.21% and European stocks are up +1.39% ahead of the FOMC’s policy decision later today. Mining stocks are raw-material producers are leading the overall market higher with the price of copper (HGN16 +2.72%) up +2.67% at a 1-week high. Gains were limited as energy producing stocks were under pressure as the price of crude oil (CLN16 -0.87%) is down -0.97% at a 3-week low after the API late yesterday reported a 1.16 million bbl increase in U.S. oil inventories for last week. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.38%, Hong Kong +0.39%, China +1.58%, Taiwan +0.35%, Australia -1.08%, Singapore +0.21%, South Korea -0.02%, India +1.25%. China’s Shanghai Composite had opened lower at a 2-week low and the yuan plunged to a 5-1/3 year low against the dollar after MSCI Inc. refused to add China’s domestic equities to benchmark indexes. However, prices recovered and closed higher amid speculation that state-backed funds were buying stocks to support the market. China’s yuan also fell back from a 5-1/3 year low on speculation the PBOC was supporting the currency.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.19%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.12%) are down -6 ticks.
In a surprise move to many, MSCI decided against adding Chinese domestic equities to its global benchmark indexes. While China implemented a number of measures over the past year to meet the requirements of MSCI, including curbs on arbitrary trading halts and looser restrictions on cross-border capital flow, MSCI said that investors needed time to assess the effectiveness of such policy changes and that further improvements are needed.
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +9.3% with purchase sub-index +11.7% and refi sub-index +7.4%), (2) May PPI final demand (expected +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and unch y/y) and May PPI ex food & energy (expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y), (3) Jun Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index (expected +4.52 to -4.50, May -18.58 to -9.02), (4) May industrial production (expected -0.2%, Apr +0.7%) (5) the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting including a press conference by Fed Chair Yellen, and (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Jabil Circuit (consensus $ 0.16).
U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: William Blair & Company Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Wed, and RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Technology Investor Day on Thu
U.S. Steel (X -4.44%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Under Perform’ at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
Cisco (CSCO +0.42%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.
Best Buy (BBY -0.58%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Credit Suisse.
United Therapeutics (UTHR -2.54%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at HC Wainwright & Co. LLC.
Select Equity Group cut its stake in Shake Shack (SHAK +3.44%) to 5.5% from 7.4%, according to a Schedule 13D.
Salesforce.com (CRM -0.49%) was rated a new ‘Outperform’ at BMO Capital Markets with a target price of $ 98.
Cynapsus Therapeutics (CYNA +0.14%) was rated a new ‘Buy’ at Janney Montgomery with a 12-month price target of $ 24.
LinkedIn (LNKD -0.30%) was downgraded to ‘Sector Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at RBC Capital Markets.
Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI -69.16%) was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Wells Fargo Securities.
Bob Evans Farms (BOBE +0.95%) lost nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to $ 2.00-$ 2.15, below consensus of $ 2.19.
Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP +0.85%) dropped over 6% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 3 million common units.
Liberty Tax (TAX +3.52%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported fiscal 2016 non-GAAP EPS of $ 1.41, below consensus of $ 1.79.
Scorpio Bulkers (SALT -7.71%) tumbled over 7% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 20 million shares of common stock.
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.21%) this morning are up +4.25 points (+0.21%). Tuesday’s closes: S&P 500 -0.18%, Dow Jones -0.33%, Nasdaq +0.05%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday sold off to a 3-week low and closed lower on negative carryover from the slump in European stocks to a 3-3/4 month low on concern Britain will vote to leave the EU on June 23. Stocks were also undercut by dollar strength that undercut commodity prices and fueled losses in energy and raw-material producing stocks. Stocks received support from the news that U.S. May retail sales rose +0.5% and +0.4% ex-autos, stronger than expectations of +0.3% and +0.4% ex-autos.
September 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.12%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Tuesday’s closes: TYU6 +0.50, FVU6 +0.75. Sep T-notes on Tuesday rallied to a new contract high and closed higher on the slide in global stocks on Brexit concerns, which fueled safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes also received a boost from a rally in German bunds to a record high as the 10-year bund yield fell below zero for the first time and from reduced inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate sank to a 3-month low. T-notes were undercut by the stronger-than-expected U.S. May retail sales report of +0.5%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.140 (-0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0021 (+0.19%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19 (+0.18%). Tuesday’s closes: Dollar Index +0.566 (+0.60%), EUR/USD -0.0085 (-0.75%), USD/JPY -0.15 (-0.14%). The dollar index on Tuesday climbed to a 1-week high and settled higher on Brexit concerns that undercut GBP/USD as it fell to a 2-month low and EUR/USD which dropped to a 1-week low. The dollar index was also boosted by the stronger-than-expected U.S. May retail sales report.
July WTI crude oil (CLN16 -0.87%) this morning is down -47 cents (-0.97%) at a 3-week low. July gasoline (RBN16 -2.11%) is down -0.0341 (-2.24%) at a 1-month low. Tuesday’s closes: CLN6 -0.39 (-0.80%), RBN6 -0.0149 (-0.97%). July crude and gasoline on Tuesday closed lower with July crude at a 1-week low and Jul gasoline at a 1-month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high and by the slump in the S&P 500 to a 3-week low, which reduces optimism in the economy and in energy demand. Crude oil received some underlying support from the IEA’s cut in its 2016 global crude oil surplus estimate to 800,000 bpd from May’s estimate of 1.3 million bpd and from expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA data to show crude inventories fell -2.5 million bbl.
|Wednesday, June 15, 2016|
|US||0700 ET||Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +9.3% with purchase sub-index +11.7% and refi sub-index +7.4%.|
|0830 ET||May PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and unch y/y. May PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y.|
|0830 ET||Jun Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected +4.52 to -4.50, May -18.58 to -9.02.|
|0915 ET||May industrial production expected -0.2%, Apr +0.7%. May manufacturing production expected -0.1%, Apr +0.3%. May capacity utilization expected -0.2 to 75.2%, Apr +0.5 to 75.4%.|
|1030 ET||EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.|
|1400 ET||FOMC announces interest rate decision and releases economic projections. Fed Chair Yellen holds press conference.|
|JPN||0200 ET||Revised Japan May machine tool orders, prelim -25.0% y/y.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK May jobless claims change expected unch, Apr -2,400. May claimant count rate expected unch at 2.1%.|
|0430 ET||UK Apr average weekly earnings expected +1.7% 3-mo avg y/y, Mar +2.0% 3-mo avg y/y. Apr weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +2.0% 3-mo avg y/y, Mar +2.1% 3-mo avg y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK ILO unemployment rate expected +5.1% for the three months through Apr, previous 5.1% for the three months through Mar.|
|Thursday, June 16, 2016|
|US||0830 ET||Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +6,000 to 270,000, previous -4,000 to 264,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +45,000 to 2.140 million, previous -77,000 to 2.095 million.|
|0830 ET||May CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +1.1% y/y. May CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y.|
|0830 ET||Jun Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected +2.8 to 1.0, May -0.2 to -1.8.|
|0830 ET||Q1 current account balance expected -$ 125.0 billion, Q4 -$ 125.31 billion.|
|0830 ET||USDA weekly Export Sales.|
|1000 ET||Jun NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 59, May unch at 58.|
|1100 ET||Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $ 26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $ 13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $ 34 billion), 7-year T-notes (previous $ 28 billion), and 30-year TIPS (previous $ 7 billion) to be auctioned Jun 20-23.|
|EUR||0200 ET||Eurozone May new car registrations, Apr +9.1% y/y.|
|0500 ET||Revised Eurozone CPI, preliminary -0.1% y/y. Revised May core CPI, preliminary +0.8% y/y.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK May retail sales ex auto fuel expected +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y, Apr +1.5% m/m and +4.2% y/y.|
|0430 ET||UK May retail sales including auto fuel expected +0.2% m/m and +3.9% y/y, Apr +1.3% m/m and +4.3% y/y.|
|0700 ET||BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375-billion-pound asset purchase target.|
|JPN||n/a||BOJ announces interest rate decision.|
|Weatherford International PLC||WFT US||4:00||Annual General Meeting|
|Principal Financial Group Inc||PFG US||8:00||Roadshow – Kansas City||Y 2016|
|BlackRock Inc||BLK US||8:00||Investor Day||Y 2016|
|Equity Commonwealth||EQC US||9:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|Jabil Circuit Inc||JBL US||16:30||Q3 2016 Earnings Call||Q3 2016|
|OPKO Health Inc||OPK US||16:30||Analyst & Investor Day||Y 2016|
|Jabil Circuit Inc||JBL US||Aft-mkt||Q3 2016 Earnings Release||Q3 2016||0.155|
|Autodesk Inc||ADSK US||18:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2016|
|American Express Co||AXP US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co||JPM US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|Bank of America Corp||BAC US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|Citigroup Inc||C US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|Progressive Corp/The||PGR US||May 2016 Sales and Revenue Release||2016|
|Celgene Corp||CELG US||Annual General Meeting|
|Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc||VRTX US||Annual General Meeting|
|Capital One Financial Corp||COF US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp||CTSH US||Annual General Meeting|
|Alliance Data Systems Corp||ADS US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|Discover Financial Services||DFS US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|Zillow Group Inc||ZG US||Annual General Meeting|
|Synchrony Financial||SYF US||Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies|
|FNF Group||FNF US||Annual General Meeting|
|Black Knight Financial Services Inc||BKFS US||Annual General Meeting|
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