Taiwan can be blocked by China
The military capabilities of China have reached a heightened state of preparedness, positioning themselves to encircle the self-governing island of Taiwan, effectively isolating it from global connections and attempting to compel compliance. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would constitute an act of aggression, precipitating a significant international crisis. A military response from Taiwan would be triggered, compelling President Trump to determine the extent of U.S. military support for the island. This scenario would disrupt global trade and lead European nations to consider imposing severe sanctions on Beijing. The Chinese military, bolstered by a prolonged period of expansion and directed by leader Xi Jinping to achieve rapid modernization by 2027, has already showcased its capabilities. In a series of increasingly intricate maneuvers, Chinese military forces have effectively encircled Taiwan while conducting simulations of potential blockades. The increasing level of preparation by China heightens the potential for an abrupt transition from military exercises to conflict. China asserts sovereignty over Taiwan and does not exclude the possibility of employing military action to assert its claims.
A blockade represents one of Xi’s most formidable military strategies—aside from an invasion, which poses a significant challenge for the still-unproven Chinese military—to compel the island to acquiesce to Beijing’s control. The military exercises conducted by China offer insights into the potential strategies Beijing might employ to implement a blockade. The Pentagon, alongside military analysts and surveillance efforts from Taiwan, provides a comprehensive understanding of the potential dynamics and the preparedness of China’s military capabilities to execute such actions. China possesses a range of strategic alternatives—recent tabletop simulations conducted by Taiwan’s president explored approximately a dozen scenarios involving a blockade or analogous measures, as reported by participants—but these scenarios exhibit several shared characteristics. The U.S., Taiwan, and independent analysts propose that China’s military capabilities, encompassing both naval assets and civilian maritime militia, may be strategically coordinated to effectively isolate Taiwan.
China has consistently showcased various components from its growing array of blockade instruments on an almost daily basis. In October, Taiwan’s defense ministry reported that a significant number of 125 Chinese military aircraft, encompassing jet fighters, helicopters, and drones, participated in extensive air-and-sea exercises designed to simulate a blockade of Taiwan. The military of China characterized the occurrence as exercises aimed at enhancing combat readiness, encompassing both maritime and terrestrial offensive operations as well as port blockade strategies. Neither China’s defense ministry nor its Taiwan Affairs Office provided responses to inquiries regarding Beijing’s strategic intentions. China possesses significant capabilities to engage Taiwan. The air force maintains a fleet of approximately 1,900 jet fighters and 500 bombers, while the rocket force is equipped with over 3,000 missiles with the capability to reach Taiwan, as reported by the Pentagon. This week, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry highlighted drone warfare as a significant area of increasing capability for China and a source of concern for Taiwan.
In the blockade scenarios formulated by the U.S., Taiwan, and other stakeholders, the onset of China’s air offensive is accompanied by the proactive deployment of its navy, which boasts over 370 vessels, making it the largest in the world. The expansion of the fleet indicates a sustained period of growth that shows no signs of abating. China holds a significant lead as the foremost shipbuilder globally, a position that encompasses the production of warships for its expanding naval capabilities. In the year 2000, the United States possessed a greater number of warships; however, by two decades later, China had overtaken the U.S. in this regard. According to the Congressional Research Service, China is expected to possess 425 warships by 2030, surpassing the U.S. fleet by over one-third. Although China’s aircraft carriers are perceived to be inferior to those of the United States, efforts are underway to bridge the capability gap. Following the introduction of its second carrier in 2019, China is anticipated to deploy a third carrier into service this year. In a fleet comprising 59 submarines, the Pentagon reports that all six of China’s nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines are strategically allocated to commands poised to engage in a direct confrontation with Taiwan’s navy.
The expansion of China’s naval capabilities has significantly extended its operational range. In December exercises, over 90 naval ships and coast guard vessels were deployed by China, along with several thousand personnel, according to Taiwanese officials. Maritime activity has been observed in the vicinity of Taiwan, as well as in the waters adjacent to Japan and South Korea, and throughout the South China Sea. In October, China’s coast guard asserted that it had successfully encircled Taiwan for the first time, commemorating this development by releasing a map illustrating its forces arranged in a heart-shaped formation around the island.
China has swiftly advanced its capabilities in cyberwarfare, which would likely be employed in the scenario of a blockade. According to Taiwanese authorities, nearly every significant military exercise conducted by China in proximity to Taiwan has been correlated with an increase in cyberattacks, suggesting that a blockade would likely follow this established pattern. Recent incidents involving the severing of subsea fiber optic cables have underscored the fragility of Taiwan’s internet connectivity.
Taiwan depends on imports for 96% of its energy needs, sourcing foreign oil, coal, and natural gas. An island under blockade would face the necessity of depending on its accumulated energy reserves, acquiescing to Beijing’s demands, or experiencing a complete power outage. The island relies on imports for approximately 70% of its food supply, highlighting a significant vulnerability in its security framework. A blockade would enable China to assess Taiwan’s defensive capabilities while simultaneously constricting its economic resources and eroding its resolve to oppose such actions. In the absence of a full blockade, Beijing possesses the capacity to enforce a quarantine, wherein Chinese law enforcement could intercept vessels transporting essential imports to the island, thereby minimizing disruption to its own shipping routes.
The initiation of a quarantine scenario would presumably commence with an official declaration from Beijing instituting new regulations mandating inspections for vessels arriving in Taiwan, potentially focusing exclusively on the primary port of Kaohsiung. Beijing possesses the capability to leverage its extensive fleet to implement a quarantine, but it also wields an additional tool: Shipping companies that fail to adhere to regulations may face restrictions on their access to Chinese markets. In an effort to exert pressure on Taipei, Beijing may consider obstructing gas shipments that pass through the South China Sea, an area where China has asserted its dominance over disputed regions. “There appears to be a consensus in both the United States and Taiwan that China possesses the capability to impose a quarantine or blockade on Taiwan at this moment,” stated Bonny Lin, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Apprehensions regarding the potential transformation of China’s military exercises near Taiwan into a genuine offensive have unsettled the island’s governmental and military authorities. Taiwan’s military conducted a five-day exercise concluding on Friday, aimed at enhancing its immediate war preparedness. A forthcoming drill will operate under the assumption that China intends to launch an invasion in 2027, a timeline some Western intelligence analysts attribute to Xi’s stated objectives for military readiness. Consensus among military analysts indicates that the capabilities of China’s armed forces are insufficient for executing an amphibious invasion across the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. The maritime conditions are frequently tumultuous, and Taiwan’s topography, characterized by steep cliffs, mud flats, and developed coastlines, presents significant challenges for maritime access. Taiwan’s antiship missile systems, including several procured from the United States, serve as a significant deterrent.
According to Huang Chung-ting, a defense analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, the position of the U.S. president is likely the most significant factor influencing Beijing’s decision-making regarding potential actions related to Taiwan. The potential for a U.S. military response continues to be an unpredictable variable. The ambiguity surrounding Trump’s dedication to safeguarding the island is notable, particularly in light of his recent decision to suspend U.S. assistance to Ukraine, which has led to a fracture in relations with Europe and weakened the collective resolve on sanctions. “The most concerning scenario regarding a blockade stems from American isolationism—where the U.S. opts to disengage entirely from the issues surrounding the Taiwan Strait,” stated Huang. In the immediate future, a quarantine appears to be a more probable course of action than either a blockade or an invasion, as indicated by Lin and her colleagues at CSIS. This action would serve as a litmus test for the resolve of the United States and its allies to react, while simultaneously enabling China to solidify a new status quo in maritime operations.
