Live Index – Wed, 29 Jul 2015 Premarket

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.20%) this morning are slightly higher by +0.23% and the EuroStoxx 50 index is up +0.21% on relief that the Chinese stock market today closed +3.44% higher after the losses of -8.5% on Monday and -1.7% on Tuesday. The Chinese stock market has been able to stabilize somewhat after the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission late Monday released a statement saying that the agency will continue to “stabilize” the market and “prevent systemic risk.”

The markets are awaiting the outcome later today of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which could produce more hawkish Fed guidance on when to expect the first rate hike. The market is discounting about a 50% chance for the rate hike as soon as the FOMC’s next meeting in September.

European stocks today received a boost from positive earnings news and additional M&A announcements. HeidelbergCement AG announced a plan to buy Italcementi SpA for 3.7 billion euros and Solvay SA agreed to buy Cytec Industries Inc for $ 5.5 billion. Bearish factors this morning include (1) Twitter’s 11% sell-off in overnight trading after saying its user growth won’t improve until the company can reach a mass market, and (2) Yelp’s -18% plunge on its lower revenue guidance.

Asian stocks today closed mostly mixed with support from the higher close in China: Japan -0.13%, Hong Kong +0.47%, China +3.44%, Taiwan -0.22%, Australia +0.71%, Singapore +0.09%, South Korea +0.31%, India +0.38%, Turkey -0.02%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is slightly lower by -0.108 (-0.11%), while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.04%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07 (+0.06%). Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.15%) this morning are down -6.5 ticks on (1) reduced safe-haven demand with the upward rebound in global stocks, and (2) concern that the FOMC today may adopt more hawkish interest rate guidance.

Commodity prices are little changed on net this morning. Sep crude oil (CLU15 -0.63%) this morning is down -0.25 (-0.52%) and Sep gasoline (RBU15 -0.22%) is down -0.0085 (-0.49%) on expectations for today’s weekly EIA report to show a +850,000 bbl increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.

Precious metals are lower this morning on reduced safe-haven demand with Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.06%) down -1.1 (-0.10%) and Sep silver (SIU15 -0.22%) down -0.042 (-0.29%). Sep Copper (HGU15 +0.25%) is slightly higher by +0.001 (+0.04%) on relief about today’s upward rebound in Chinese stocks. Grain and cotton prices are lower this morning while sugar, coffee and cocoa are higher.

The ECB today reportedly left its Greek Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) facility unchanged at 90.4 billion euros. The ECB last raised the facility by 900 million euros on July 22. The EU Commission spokeswoman said today that the EU Commission is “satisfied with the smooth and constructive cooperation with the Greek authorities” that has been seen since negotiations began earlier this week on the 3-year bailout program. The Greek stock market has not yet reopened but is getting closer to reopening after the ECB on Tuesday approved new trading rules.

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week +0.1% with purchase sub-index +1.0% and refi sub-index -0.5%), (2) June pending home sales (expected +1.0% m/m and +11.1% y/y after May’s +0.9% m/m and +8.3% y/y), (3) the Treasury’s auction of $ 15 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $ 35 billion of 5-year T-notes, and (4) the FOMC’s announcement of its interest rate decision after its 2-day meeting.

There are 49 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Facebook (consensus $ 0.47), MasterCard (0.85), Baxter (0.95), Humana (1.63), Marriott (0.81), Murphy Oil (-0.55), Williams Companies (0.27), Goodyear (0.75), International Paper (0.92), PG&E (0.72), Level 3 Communications (0.39), Garmin (0.71), Public Storage (2.14).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today include: Poseidon Containers Holdings (PCON), Easterly Acquisition Corp (EACQU).

Equity conferences this week: none.

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are slightly higher by +0.23% on relief that the Chinese stock market today closed +3.44% higher. Tuesday’s closes: S&P 500 +1.24%%, Dow Jones +1.09%, Nasdaq +0.98%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday rebounded higher after the sharp 5-session loss and closed with fairly sharp gains. Stocks rallied on (1) some stabilization in Chinese stocks as the Shanghai Composite index recovered from an early loss of -5.1% to close only -1.68% lower, and (2) short-covering after the sharp week-long sell-off. Stocks rallied despite negative factors that included (1) the sharp -10.5 point decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 90.9, (2) the unexpected -0.18% decline in the May CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index, and (3) some concern that the FOMC at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday might adopt a more hawkish warning of a near-term rate hike.

• Twitter (TWTR +5.30%) is down -11% in overnight trading after saying its user growth won’t improve until the company can reach a mass market
• Yelp (YELP -0.65%) is down -18% overnight on its lower revenue guidance.
• Positive earnings reports this morning include: Anthem (ANTM +1.78%) ($ 3.13 vs $ 2.70), International Paper (IP +2.89%) (0.97 vs 0.92), Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.48%) ((2.54 vs 2.33), Altria (MO +2.41%) (0.74 vs 0.71), WEC Energy Group (WEC +0.80%) (0.59 vs 0.56), Garmin (GRMN +1.61%) (0.72 vs 0.71), Hess (HES +3.42%) (-0.59 vs -0.71), General Dynamics (GD +1.32%) (2.27 vs 2.06), Humana (HUM +0.33%) (1.67 vs 1.63).
• Negative earnings reports this morning include: Praxair (PX +3.18%) (1.45 vs 1.455), CBRE Group (CBG +1.02%) (0.42 vs 0.43), Henry Schein (HSIC +2.03%) (1.46 vs 1.462), American Tower (AMT +0.21%) (0.99 vs 1.14), Southern Company (SO +0.23%) (0.69 vs 0.70), Hospiri (HSP -0.13%) (0.81 vs 0.835).
• On positive earnings news late yesterday, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +1.61%) rallied 10%, Panera Bread (PNRA +1.62%) rallied 8%, Express Scripts (ESRX +1.41%) rallied +1.6%, and Sunpower (SPWR +2.19%) rallied by 1.5%.
• On negative earnings news late yesterday, Yelp (YELP -0.65%) fell 16%, Akamai (AKAM +2.82%) fell 10%, and BlackBox (BBOX -2.11%) fell 4%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices this morning are down -6.5 ticks on (1) reduced safe-haven demand with the upward rebound in global stocks, and (2) concern that the FOMC today may adopt more hawkish interest rate guidance. TYU5 -5, FVU5 -2.25. Sep 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed mildly lower on reduced safe-haven demand as Chinese stocks stabilized and the U.S. stock market rallied. However, T-notes found underlying support from the weak U.S. consumer confidence and CaseShiller home price reports.

The dollar index this morning is slightly lower by -0.108 (-0.11%), while EUR/USD is down -0.0004 (-0.04%) and USD/JPY is up +0.07 (+0.06%). Dollar Index +0.27 (+0.28%), EUR/USD -0.0028 (-0.25%), USD/JPY +0.31 (+0.25%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed mildly higher on some short-covering after the fairly sharp losses seen over the past week, the stabilization of the Chinese stock market and higher U.S. stocks, and the possibility that the FOMC at its post-meeting on Wednesday may move to more hawkish interest rate guidance. The main bearish factor for the dollar was the weak U.S. economic data that included the U.S. consumer confidence index and CaseShiller home price index.

Sep crude oil this morning is down -0.25 (-0.52%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0085 (-0.49%) on expectations for today’s weekly EIA report to show a +850,000 bbl increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. CLU5 +0.59 (+1.24%), RBU5 -0.0182 (-1.03%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed mixed. Crude oil closed mildly higher on some short-covering and the stabilization of global stocks. However, sentiment remains bearish as the market expects Wednesday’s EIA report to show a +850,000 bbl increase in crude oil inventories and the market expects the global oil glut to worsen later this year when Iranian sanctions are dropped.