Live Index – Wed, 13 May 2015 Premarket
Wed May 13 2015
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Live Index – Wed, 13 May 2015 Premarket

PREMARKET WORLD NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.25%) this morning are up +0.27% and European stocks are up +0.85% after global bond markets rallied and after Eurozone Q1 GDP expanded as expected. The British pound fell back from a 4-3/4 month high against the dollar after the BOE cut its 2015 UK GDP forecast and after BOE Governor Carney signaled the BOE may keep interest rates at record lows for longer than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.71%, Hong Kong -0.58%, China -0.58%, Taiwan +0.45%, Australia +0.71%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +0.70%, India +1.39%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower after China Apr fixed-asset investment growth grew at the slowest pace in over 14 years and after China Apr industrial production rose less than expected.

Commodity prices are mostly higher. Jun crude oil (CLM15 +0.91%) is up +0.67% and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +0.33%) is up +0.17% ahead of today’s EIA data where crude inventories are expected to fall -250,000 bbl. Metals prices are mixed. Jun gold (GCM15 +0.39%) is up +0.07%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.12%) is down -0.12%. Agriculture prices are mixed.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.20%) are up +8.5 ticks on a rebound in global government bond markets.

The BOE cut its 2015 UK GDP forecast to 2.5% from a 2.9% forecast in Feb and raised its 2015 inflation forecast to +0.6% from a Feb estimate of +0.5%. BOE Governor Carney said that “persistent headwinds continue to weigh on the U.K. economy” and that this may require “not only a more gradual rate of increase in bank rates than in previous cycles, but also require the level of bank rates to remain below average historical levels for some time to come.”

Eurozone Q1 GDP rose +0.4% q/q and +1.0% y/y, right on expectations.

China Apr fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose +12.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +13.5% y/y and the slowest pace of investment growth since Dec 2000.

China Apr industrial production rose +5.9% y/y, less than expectations of +6.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. reports today include: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week -4.6% with purchase sub-index +0.8% and refi sub-index -8.3%), (2) Apr retail sales (expected +0.2%, +0.5% ex autos, +0.6% ex-autos and gas after Mar’s +0.9%, +0.4%, and +0.5%, respectively), (3) Apr import price index (expected +0.3% m/m and -9.7% y/y after March’s -0.3% m/m and -10.5% y/y), (4) March business inventories (expected +0.2% after Feb’s +0.3%), and (5) the Treasury’s auction of $ 24 billion of 10-year T-notes.

There are 10 of the Russell 100 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Macy’s (consensus $ 0.62), Cisco Systems (0.53), Ralph Lauren (1.32), JC Penney (-0.76).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today include: Fortress Transportation (FTAI), Galapagos ((GLPYY), Fenix Parts (FENX).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Citi Global Energy and Utilities Conference on Tue-Wed, Jefferies Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, Morgan Stanley E&P and Oil Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Small-Mid Cap Conference on Wed, UBS Financial Services Conference on Wed, Credit Suisse Disruptive Technology Conference on Wed, JP Morgan Business Services Conference on Wed, Janney Montgomery Scott – Company Marketing : Biotechnology – Southeast on Wed, MoffettNathanson Media & Communications Summit on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Transportation Conference on Thu, Barclays Biotech CEO/CFO Conference on Thu, Royal Bank of Canada Aerospace & Defense Investor Day on Thu.

PREMARKET U.S. STOCKS

Microsoft (MSFT -0.04%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Deutsche Bank.

Danaher (DHR +2.92%) said it will separate into two independent, publicly traded companies.

Precision Castparts (PCP -0.62%) reported Q4 EPS of $ 2.94, below consensus of $ 2.95, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $ 12.50-$ 13.40, below consensus of $ 13.39.

Piper Jaffray kept its ‘Overweight’ rating on Acuity Brands (AYI +1.11%) and raised its price target on the stock to $ 207 from $ 194.

Vale (VALE -3.79%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Macquarie.

Humana (HUM +4.06%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Sterne Agee CRT.

American Eagle (AEO -1.40%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Cowen.

Jefferies upgraded Magellan Health (MGLN +0.15%) to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ with a $ 78 price target.

Kimberly-Clark (KMB -0.15%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Barclays.

AOL (AOL +18.62%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at Goldman Sachs.

Vertex (VRTX -2.61%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading when it confirmed that an FDA panel voted 12-to-1 to recommend approval of its drug Orkambi for use in people with cystic fibrosis.

American Express (AXP -0.78%) rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it authorized a 150 million share repurchase and raised its dividend.

McKesson (MCK +0.44%) reported Q4 adjusted adjusted EPS of $ 2.94, higher than consensus of $ 2.75, although Q4 revenue of $ 44.93 billion was below consensus of $ 45.04 billion.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.25%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.27%). Tuesday’s closes: S&P 500 -0.29%, Dow Jones -0.20%, Nasdaq -0.41%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on the sharp -150,000 drop in March JOLTS job openings and on New York Fed President Dudley’s comment that the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006 will usher in a “regime shift” that will stir financial markets when it occurs. Supportive factors included M&A activity after Verizon said it would buy AOL for $ 4.4 billion, and strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.20%) this morning are up +8.5 ticks. Tuesday’s closes: TYM5 +5.00, FVM5 +4.00. June T-notes on Tuesday recovered from a 4-1/4 month low and closed higher on the sharp -150,000 drop in March JOLTS job openings and on strong foreign demand for the Treasury’s $ 24 billion auction of 3-year T-notes after indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign buyers, bought 52.7% of the auction, well above the 12-auction average of 39.3% and the most in 5 years. T-notes posted a 4-1/4 month low early on bearish carry-over from a surge in European and Japanese government bond yields.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) this morning is down -0.042 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14 (-0.12%). Tuesday’s closes: Dollar Index -0.477 (-0.50%), EUR/USD +0.00584 (+0.52%), USD/JPY -0.215 (-0.18%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on EUR strength as the rise in European government bond yields boosted the euro’s interest rate differentials. EUR also saw some strength after Greece made its 750 million euro payment due Tuesday to the IMF and after Dutch Finance Minister Dijsselbloem, leader of the Eurozone finance ministers, said “we are making faster progress” in Greece’s debt negotiations.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM15 +0.91%) this morning is up +41 cents (+0.67%) and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +0.33%) is up +0.0035 (+0.17%). Tuesday’s closes: CLM5 +1.50 (+2.53%), RBM5 +0.0561 (+2.82%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled higher on a weaker dollar and expectations that Wednesday’s EIA report will show that crude inventories fell -500,000 bbl. Oil prices also received a boost after the EIA’s monthly drilling report said that U.S. oil production from shale production is set to decline in June to a 5-month low of 5.56 million bpd.

 

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/13/2015
US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.6% with purchase sub-index +0.8% and refi sub-index -8.3%.
0830 ET Apr retail sales expected +0.2%, +0.5% ex autos, +0.6% ex-autos and gas; Mar +0.9%, +0.4% ex autos, +0.5% ex-autos and gas.
0830 ET Apr import price index expected +0.3% m/m and -9.7% y/y, Mar -0.3% m/m and -10.5% y/y.
1000 ET Mar business inventories expected +0.2%, Feb +0.3%.
1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $ 24 billion 10-year T-notes.
JPN 0030 ET Japan Apr bankruptcies, Mar +5.52% y/y.
0100 ET Japan Apr eco-watchers survey current expected +0.1 to 52.3, Mar 52.2. Apr eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.1 49 53.3, Mar 53.4.
CHI 0130 ET China Apr industrial production expected +6.0% y/y, Mar +5.6% y/y.
0130 ET China Apr retail sales expected +10.4% y/y, Mar +10.2% y/y.
GER 0200 ET German Q1 GDP expected +0.5% q/q and +1.3% y/y (nsa), Q4 +0.7% q/q and +1.6% y/y (nsa).
0200 ET Revised German Apr CPI (EU harmonized), previous -0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
UK 0430 ET UK Apr jobless claims change expected -20,000, Mar -20.700. Apr claimant count rate expected -0.1 to 2.2%, Mar 2.3%.
0430 ET UK Mar avg weekly earnings expected +1.7% 3-mo avg y/y, Feb +1.7% 3-mo avg y/y. Mar weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +2.1% 3-mo avg y/y, Feb +1.8% 3-mo avg y/y.
0430 ET UK Mar ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.5% 3-months through Mar, previous 5.6% 3-month through Feb.
0530 ET BOE Quarterly Inflation Report.
1901 ET UK Apr RICS house price balance expected 22%, Mar 21%.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Mar industrial production expected unch m/m and +1.9% y/y, Feb +1.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
0500 ET Eurozone Q1 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +1.0% y/y, Q4 +0.3% q/q and +0.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/13/2015
Company Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate
Macy’s Inc M US Bef-mkt Q1 2016 Earnings Release Q1 2016 0.623
Precision Castparts Corp PCP US Bef-mkt Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 2.947
Delta Air Lines Inc DAL US 7:00 Delta Air Lines Releases Shareholder Returns Plan
WW Grainger Inc GWW US 8:00 April 2015 Sales and Revenue Call 2015
WW Grainger Inc GWW US 8:00 April 2015 Sales and Revenue Release 2015
Ingersoll-Rand PLC IR US 8:00 Analyst and Investor Conference Y 2015
Ralph Lauren Corp RL US 8:00 Q4 2015 Earnings Release Q4 2015 1.317
Anthem Inc ANTM US 8:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2015
EI du Pont de Nemours & Co DD US 8:30 Annual General Meeting – Proxy Fight for Board Representation Y 2015
Williams Cos Inc/The WMB US 8:45 Analyst Day Y 2015
Macy’s Inc M US 9:00 Q1 2016 Earnings Call Q1 2016
Ralph Lauren Corp RL US 9:00 Q4 2015 Earnings Call Q4 2015
Akamai Technologies Inc AKAM US 9:30 Annual General Meeting
Frontier Communications Corp FTR US 10:00 Annual General Meeting
Precision Castparts Corp PCP US 10:00 Q4 2015 Earnings Call Q4 2015
American International Group Inc AIG US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2015
Southwest Airlines Co LUV US 11:00 Annual General Meeting Y 2015
Hospira Inc HSP US 11:00 Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting – M&A Vote Y 2015
Cisco Systems Inc CSCO US 16:05 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Q3 2015 0.527
Cisco Systems Inc CSCO US 16:30 Q3 2015 Earnings Call Q3 2015
Charles Schwab Corp/The SCHW US 17:00 Annual General Meeting
Murphy Oil Corp MUR US Annual General Meeting
Laboratory Corp of America Holdings LH US Annual General Meeting
National Oilwell Varco Inc NOV US Annual General Meeting
Yum! Brands Inc YUM US Investor Conference-China-Day 1 Y 2015
Sempra Energy SRE US Annual General Meeting
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG US Annual General Meeting

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