Wed May 13 2015
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Live Index – Wed, 13 May 2015 Premarket

PREMARKET WORLD NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.25%) this morning are up +0.27% and European stocks are up +0.85% after global bond markets rallied and after Eurozone Q1 GDP expanded as expected. The British pound fell back from a 4-3/4 month high against the dollar after the BOE cut its 2015 UK GDP forecast and after BOE Governor Carney signaled the BOE may keep interest rates at record lows for longer than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.71%, Hong Kong -0.58%, China -0.58%, Taiwan +0.45%, Australia +0.71%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +0.70%, India +1.39%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower after China Apr fixed-asset investment growth grew at the slowest pace in over 14 years and after China Apr industrial production rose less than expected.

Commodity prices are mostly higher. Jun crude oil (CLM15 +0.91%) is up +0.67% and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +0.33%) is up +0.17% ahead of today’s EIA data where crude inventories are expected to fall -250,000 bbl. Metals prices are mixed. Jun gold (GCM15 +0.39%) is up +0.07%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.12%) is down -0.12%. Agriculture prices are mixed.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.20%) are up +8.5 ticks on a rebound in global government bond markets.

The BOE cut its 2015 UK GDP forecast to 2.5% from a 2.9% forecast in Feb and raised its 2015 inflation forecast to +0.6% from a Feb estimate of +0.5%. BOE Governor Carney said that “persistent headwinds continue to weigh on the U.K. economy” and that this may require “not only a more gradual rate of increase in bank rates than in previous cycles, but also require the level of bank rates to remain below average historical levels for some time to come.”

Eurozone Q1 GDP rose +0.4% q/q and +1.0% y/y, right on expectations.

China Apr fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose +12.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +13.5% y/y and the slowest pace of investment growth since Dec 2000.

China Apr industrial production rose +5.9% y/y, less than expectations of +6.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. reports today include: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (last week -4.6% with purchase sub-index +0.8% and refi sub-index -8.3%), (2) Apr retail sales (expected +0.2%, +0.5% ex autos, +0.6% ex-autos and gas after Mar’s +0.9%, +0.4%, and +0.5%, respectively), (3) Apr import price index (expected +0.3% m/m and -9.7% y/y after March’s -0.3% m/m and -10.5% y/y), (4) March business inventories (expected +0.2% after Feb’s +0.3%), and (5) the Treasury’s auction of $ 24 billion of 10-year T-notes.

There are 10 of the Russell 100 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Macy’s (consensus $ 0.62), Cisco Systems (0.53), Ralph Lauren (1.32), JC Penney (-0.76).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today include: Fortress Transportation (FTAI), Galapagos ((GLPYY), Fenix Parts (FENX).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Citi Global Energy and Utilities Conference on Tue-Wed, Jefferies Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, Morgan Stanley E&P and Oil Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Small-Mid Cap Conference on Wed, UBS Financial Services Conference on Wed, Credit Suisse Disruptive Technology Conference on Wed, JP Morgan Business Services Conference on Wed, Janney Montgomery Scott – Company Marketing : Biotechnology – Southeast on Wed, MoffettNathanson Media & Communications Summit on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Transportation Conference on Thu, Barclays Biotech CEO/CFO Conference on Thu, Royal Bank of Canada Aerospace & Defense Investor Day on Thu.

PREMARKET U.S. STOCKS

Microsoft (MSFT -0.04%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Deutsche Bank.

Danaher (DHR +2.92%) said it will separate into two independent, publicly traded companies.

Precision Castparts (PCP -0.62%) reported Q4 EPS of $ 2.94, below consensus of $ 2.95, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $ 12.50-$ 13.40, below consensus of $ 13.39.

Piper Jaffray kept its ‘Overweight’ rating on Acuity Brands (AYI +1.11%) and raised its price target on the stock to $ 207 from $ 194.

Vale (VALE -3.79%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Macquarie.

Humana (HUM +4.06%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Sterne Agee CRT.

American Eagle (AEO -1.40%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Cowen.

Jefferies upgraded Magellan Health (MGLN +0.15%) to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ with a $ 78 price target.

Kimberly-Clark (KMB -0.15%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Barclays.

AOL (AOL +18.62%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at Goldman Sachs.

Vertex (VRTX -2.61%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading when it confirmed that an FDA panel voted 12-to-1 to recommend approval of its drug Orkambi for use in people with cystic fibrosis.

American Express (AXP -0.78%) rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it authorized a 150 million share repurchase and raised its dividend.

McKesson (MCK +0.44%) reported Q4 adjusted adjusted EPS of $ 2.94, higher than consensus of $ 2.75, although Q4 revenue of $ 44.93 billion was below consensus of $ 45.04 billion.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.25%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.27%). Tuesday’s closes: S&P 500 -0.29%, Dow Jones -0.20%, Nasdaq -0.41%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on the sharp -150,000 drop in March JOLTS job openings and on New York Fed President Dudley’s comment that the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006 will usher in a “regime shift” that will stir financial markets when it occurs. Supportive factors included M&A activity after Verizon said it would buy AOL for $ 4.4 billion, and strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.20%) this morning are up +8.5 ticks. Tuesday’s closes: TYM5 +5.00, FVM5 +4.00. June T-notes on Tuesday recovered from a 4-1/4 month low and closed higher on the sharp -150,000 drop in March JOLTS job openings and on strong foreign demand for the Treasury’s $ 24 billion auction of 3-year T-notes after indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign buyers, bought 52.7% of the auction, well above the 12-auction average of 39.3% and the most in 5 years. T-notes posted a 4-1/4 month low early on bearish carry-over from a surge in European and Japanese government bond yields.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) this morning is down -0.042 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14 (-0.12%). Tuesday’s closes: Dollar Index -0.477 (-0.50%), EUR/USD +0.00584 (+0.52%), USD/JPY -0.215 (-0.18%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on EUR strength as the rise in European government bond yields boosted the euro’s interest rate differentials. EUR also saw some strength after Greece made its 750 million euro payment due Tuesday to the IMF and after Dutch Finance Minister Dijsselbloem, leader of the Eurozone finance ministers, said “we are making faster progress” in Greece’s debt negotiations.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM15 +0.91%) this morning is up +41 cents (+0.67%) and Jun gasoline (RBM15 +0.33%) is up +0.0035 (+0.17%). Tuesday’s closes: CLM5 +1.50 (+2.53%), RBM5 +0.0561 (+2.82%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled higher on a weaker dollar and expectations that Wednesday’s EIA report will show that crude inventories fell -500,000 bbl. Oil prices also received a boost after the EIA’s monthly drilling report said that U.S. oil production from shale production is set to decline in June to a 5-month low of 5.56 million bpd.

 

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/13/2015
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.6% with purchase sub-index +0.8% and refi sub-index -8.3%.
0830 ETApr retail sales expected +0.2%, +0.5% ex autos, +0.6% ex-autos and gas; Mar +0.9%, +0.4% ex autos, +0.5% ex-autos and gas.
0830 ETApr import price index expected +0.3% m/m and -9.7% y/y, Mar -0.3% m/m and -10.5% y/y.
1000 ETMar business inventories expected +0.2%, Feb +0.3%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $ 24 billion 10-year T-notes.
JPN0030 ETJapan Apr bankruptcies, Mar +5.52% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Apr eco-watchers survey current expected +0.1 to 52.3, Mar 52.2. Apr eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.1 49 53.3, Mar 53.4.
CHI0130 ETChina Apr industrial production expected +6.0% y/y, Mar +5.6% y/y.
0130 ETChina Apr retail sales expected +10.4% y/y, Mar +10.2% y/y.
GER0200 ETGerman Q1 GDP expected +0.5% q/q and +1.3% y/y (nsa), Q4 +0.7% q/q and +1.6% y/y (nsa).
0200 ETRevised German Apr CPI (EU harmonized), previous -0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Apr jobless claims change expected -20,000, Mar -20.700. Apr claimant count rate expected -0.1 to 2.2%, Mar 2.3%.
0430 ETUK Mar avg weekly earnings expected +1.7% 3-mo avg y/y, Feb +1.7% 3-mo avg y/y. Mar weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +2.1% 3-mo avg y/y, Feb +1.8% 3-mo avg y/y.
0430 ETUK Mar ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.5% 3-months through Mar, previous 5.6% 3-month through Feb.
0530 ETBOE Quarterly Inflation Report.
1901 ETUK Apr RICS house price balance expected 22%, Mar 21%.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Mar industrial production expected unch m/m and +1.9% y/y, Feb +1.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Q1 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +1.0% y/y, Q4 +0.3% q/q and +0.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/13/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Macy’s IncM USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.623
Precision Castparts CorpPCP USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20152.947
Delta Air Lines IncDAL US7:00Delta Air Lines Releases Shareholder Returns Plan
WW Grainger IncGWW US8:00April 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
WW Grainger IncGWW US8:00April 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Ingersoll-Rand PLCIR US8:00Analyst and Investor ConferenceY 2015
Ralph Lauren CorpRL US8:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.317
Anthem IncANTM US8:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD US8:30Annual General Meeting – Proxy Fight for Board RepresentationY 2015
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB US8:45Analyst DayY 2015
Macy’s IncM US9:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Ralph Lauren CorpRL US9:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM US9:30Annual General Meeting
Frontier Communications CorpFTR US10:00Annual General Meeting
Precision Castparts CorpPCP US10:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
American International Group IncAIG US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Southwest Airlines CoLUV US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Hospira IncHSP US11:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting – M&A VoteY 2015
Cisco Systems IncCSCO US16:05Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.527
Cisco Systems IncCSCO US16:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Charles Schwab Corp/TheSCHW US17:00Annual General Meeting
Murphy Oil CorpMUR USAnnual General Meeting
Laboratory Corp of America HoldingsLH USAnnual General Meeting
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV USAnnual General Meeting
Yum! Brands IncYUM USInvestor Conference-China-Day 1Y 2015
Sempra EnergySRE USAnnual General Meeting
Chipotle Mexican Grill IncCMG USAnnual General Meeting

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