Who is the most likely candidate to succeed Pope Francis
Speculation is mounting regarding potential successors to Pope Francis. As the Vatican community observes closely, various names are being discussed in relation to the papal succession. Stay tuned for updates on this developing story. In a significant move, the Catholic Church’s cardinals previously sought an outsider to reform a Vatican beset by scandals during their selection of a new pope. Pope Francis has proven to be a more significant disrupter than many had anticipated.
In the wake of Francis’ tumultuous 12-year pontificate, a number of cardinals are expressing a desire for a successor capable of stabilizing the situation and easing the divisions between progressives and conservatives on issues such as divorce, same-sex relationships, priestly celibacy, and other divisive topics. “Numerous cardinals express their fatigue with the unpredictable nature of this pontificate.” “Many of them will look for some stability,” stated Massimo Faggioli, a church historian at Villanova University.
In a significant move, Francis has appointed 108 of the 135 cardinals eligible to vote. This development suggests that a majority is unlikely to reject his initiatives aimed at drawing the church nearer to everyday believers, particularly those who are poor and marginalized. His focus on a pastoral approach, rather than strict doctrinal enforcement, appears to be a central theme in his leadership.
A limited group of traditionalist cardinals is advocating for a return to a papacy that mandates a universal orthodoxy regarding sexual morality and gender issues, reminiscent of the approach taken by Francis’ predecessor, Benedict XVI. A significant faction of moderate conservatives may impede candidates they perceive as excessively radical on issues including women’s ordination, priestly celibacy, and blessings for same-sex couples.
A cardinal characterized by ideological moderation and diplomatic skills could potentially unite the church’s divisions while upholding Pope Francis’ pastoral emphasis, presenting promising prospects for the future. Numerous cardinals are expressing a preference for a pope who possesses the charisma necessary to carry on Pope Francis’ mission of outreach to the global community beyond the Catholic Church. This includes fostering relationships with other faiths and ensuring a continued presence on pressing political and economic matters, including conflicts, migration, and climate change.
The ideal candidate must possess technocratic skills to address the Vatican’s persistent and escalating budget deficit, a challenge that has proven difficult for Francis. It is suggested that he should not be significantly younger, indicating an age of less than 70 years. Cardinals often exercise caution when considering the selection of a young pope, as there are concerns that such a choice could lead to an extended papacy.
In Germany, there exists a term for a rare and elusive combination of skills: eierlegende Wollmilchsau, which translates to a sow that not only lays eggs but also produces wool and milk. None of the candidates considered for the papacy, an Italian term meaning “popeable,” meet all the necessary criteria. This conclave stands out as one of the most transparent contests we have seen in recent history.
According to some experts 10 individuals who are currently regarded as leading candidates. the list could potentially be twice as extensive, and there is a possibility of a wild-card selection.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Pietro Parolin has been a prominent figure in the Vatican, known for his diplomatic efforts and significant role within the Catholic Church. The 70-year-old Italian currently serves as the Vatican’s secretary of state, a role that functions similarly to that of a prime minister. He is undoubtedly a strong contender, possessing the global contacts and diplomatic skills necessary to rally support within the College of Cardinals. Parolin is seen as a figure of continuity; however, his relationship with Francis has not been the closest, which may pose challenges in addressing the concerns of skeptics regarding the previous pope. His absence of charisma may prove to be a disadvantage for him. Concerns are rising regarding the unstable financial situation of the Vatican, particularly in light of significant losses incurred from a London real estate investment during his tenure. A deal negotiated with China, granting the ruling Communist Party a role in the appointment of Catholic bishops, continues to stir controversy.
Cardinal Mario Grech
A prominent progressive candidate, the 68-year-old Maltese cardinal is making headlines. He stands as a prominent advocate for Francis’ lenient approach regarding the provision of Communion to Catholics who have divorced and remarried. Additionally, he has shown support for progressive German bishops advocating for changes in church practices, such as the ordination of women deacons. He promotes a decentralized institution designed to facilitate various methods of engaging followers within a diverse, globalized church. Conservatives are sounding the alarm about a potential schism within the church, urging that the progressive push for changes be curtailed.
Cardinal Péter Erdő
Cardinal Péter Erdő has been a prominent figure in the Catholic Church, known for his influential role and contributions to various ecclesiastical matters. The 72-year-old primate of Hungary emerges as a formidable figure in the conservative landscape. Erdő, a multilingual intellectual, has issued a call for unity within the church. His perspectives on divorce, immigration, gay civil unions, and the use of the Latin Mass align with traditional values; however, he does not adopt the rigid stance of some of the most vocal critics of Francis. Critics argue that he is devoid of charisma and fails to connect with the public.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle has been a prominent figure in the religious community, known for his influential role and leadership. His contributions continue to resonate within various circles. A prominent figure from the global South, the “Asian Francis,” who previously served as the archbishop of Manila and currently holds a senior position within the Vatican administration, is emerging as a leading contender. A 67-year-old Filipino cardinal aligns with Pope Francis’ emphasis on social justice and advocates for a merciful church, all while upholding traditional Catholic teachings regarding abortion and contraception. Since 2022, his prominence has waned, particularly after Pope Francis made the decision to remove him from his position as the head of Caritas Internationalis, the global charitable organization of the church, due to issues related to management and morale. Some observers suggest that Tagle’s relative youth could be a concern for cardinals seeking to avoid a lengthy pontificate.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Following the selection of the Argentine Francis, the appointment of the Archbishop of Kinshasa marks another significant step towards a more global papacy. Africa stands out as the continent experiencing the most significant growth in Catholicism. The Congolese cardinal is expected to support Francis’ emphasis on social justice, advocate for the poor, and engage in dialogue with other faiths, while also maintaining a vocal stance on global issues. Ambongo has raised concerns regarding Francis’ relaxed guidelines on priestly blessings for same-sex couples, a move that may resonate with conservative factions. At the age of 65, his relative youth and limited experience in Vatican governance may pose challenges for him.
Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost
According to numerous Vatican observers, the concept of an American pope remains a challenging notion to envision. Numerous cardinals are expressing hesitation about appearing to align the global church with the superpower, particularly in light of President Trump’s significant cuts to development aid and his intentions for large-scale deportations of migrants, which conflict with the church’s priorities. In a surprising turn of events, the Chicago-born Cardinal Prevost emerges as a strong contender, potentially overcoming the challenges associated with holding a U.S. passport. Following years of dedicated service as a missionary and bishop in Peru, Prevost has ascended under the leadership of Francis to take on the significant role of the Vatican’s chief official responsible for the selection of bishops across much of the globe. At the age of 69, he emerges as a potential dark horse in the race.
Cardinal Gérald Lacroix
In a surprising turn of events, experts suggest that a pope hailing from North America is more likely to be Canadian rather than American. In a recent statement, the Archbishop of Quebec expressed strong support for Pope Francis, highlighting his humility and focus on fostering a pastoral, listening church. Francis appointed him to the council of cardinals, a group created by the pope to provide guidance on matters of church governance. In a significant development last year, Lacroix was exonerated of allegations related to sexual abuse. At the age of 67, he stands out as one of the younger candidates in the race.
Cardinal Charles Maung Bo
Myanmar’s first cardinal emerges as a formidable candidate from Asia. At the age of 76, he appears to be well-positioned to potentially reconcile the divides between progressives and conservatives. He maintained a close relationship with Francis, while also expressing admiration for Francis’ conservative predecessor, Benedict. Bo expressed his support for Francis’ vision of a church that prioritizes listening and highlighted his commitment to environmental issues. He is perceived as conservative; however, he has not actively engaged in the church’s cultural conflicts.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
The archbishop of Bologna emerges as a prominent figure among progressives, poised to carry forward the initiatives of Pope Francis. His focus will be on fostering inclusivity within the church and engaging with diverse faith communities. A 69-year-old individual is closely associated with the Catholic lay community Sant’Egidio, which is recognized as an international organization deeply engaged in social work initiatives. In the year 2023, Francis appointed Zuppi to facilitate discussions between Russia and Ukraine. The situation did not advance the prospects for peace. Zuppi boasts strong connections within Italy; however, his left-wing reputation and limited proficiency in foreign languages may pose challenges for him.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline
The Archbishop of Marseille is regarded as a protégé of Francis, known for his approachable demeanor. Emerging from humble beginnings, he advocates for a church that embraces marginalized communities and fosters dialogue with other faiths, including Islam. He has remained relatively silent on divisive issues. At the age of 66, he is considered relatively young.
