Weak rains cut hydropower at China’s $167 billion mega project
China has expanded the capacity of its hydro generators by over one-third since 2020; however, electricity production from these sources has risen by only 11 percent this year to date. The world’s largest polluter is managing to keep emissions in check. The weather is providing no assistance. In a notable development, electricity generation from thermal power stations in China experienced a decline of 1.3 percent through July this year. In a notable development, a 4.5 per cent decline in cement production alongside a 3.1 per cent decrease in steel output indicates a continued reduction in coal consumption, despite ongoing growth in factory activity. Considering that the nation accounts for approximately one-third of total carbon emissions, this development is unequivocally positive.
The situation was much tighter than anticipated, largely due to the ongoing shortcomings of hydroelectric power. China’s leadership may need to reconsider their plans as they move forward with the $167 billion Yarlung Tsangpo dam. This ambitious project, located on the eastern edge of Tibet, is set to become the largest power plant ever constructed upon its completion. Since 2020, China has expanded the capacity of its hydro generators by over a third; however, electricity production from these generators has only risen by 11 percent this year. Hydro generation through July experienced a decline of 27.8 terawatt-hours compared to 2024, a decrease that is nearly as significant as the 37.4 TWh reduction in thermal power. For reasons that remain somewhat ambiguous, the nation is receiving diminishing returns in terms of electrons for the extensive concrete it employs to construct dams across its rivers.
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A notable factor is a series of unsatisfactory rainfall events. To grasp the trajectory of emissions in a particular year, one must examine the volume of water coursing through the basin of the Yangtze River. The network of dams is responsible for generating approximately one-fifth of the world’s hydroelectricity. When those channels ebb, it’s coal that fills the gap. This year follows the trend. In a striking contrast to the severe floods and typhoons that have battered Beijing and its coastal provinces in recent weeks, rainfall in the basin recorded a significant shortfall, measuring 25 per cent below long-term averages for July. This year is on track to become the fourth dry year in the last six. Without the H2O to turn their turbines, all those hydro generators find themselves sitting idle. There is hope that the dry spell that began in 2021 is merely an unfortunate cluster of lean years, and that conditions will normalize over time as rainfall returns to its historic trend. However, it is clear that the historical trend regarding our warming planet serves as a poor indicator for what lies ahead. As climate change accelerates, vast regions of the earth are experiencing rapid desiccation, with an area of arid land equivalent to the size of California emerging every six months.
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A noteworthy element that could be influencing this situation in China is its achievement in addressing pollution. A decade ago, it was common for news stories to feature harrowing images of cities engulfed in clouds of particulates emitted by power stations, a reality that is easy to overlook today. A crackdown that commenced around 2013 transformed this completely. By 2019, airborne concentrations of PM2.5, which encompass a range of pollutants linked to increased health risks, had decreased by approximately one third. It is already estimated that this initiative is saving hundreds of thousands of lives annually. However, the reduction has other effects. The haze was reflecting sunlight back into space. The disappearance signifies that more rays are reaching the Earth’s surface, where they have the potential to warm the atmosphere. A recent study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment reveals that over 80 percent of the acceleration of global warming since 2010 is linked to reductions in sulfur dioxide, a consequence of East Asia’s crackdown on particulates.
Particulates play a significant role in influencing rain patterns, acting as airborne “seeds” that enable humid air to coalesce into droplets and, ultimately, develop into storm clouds. While these relationships remain poorly understood, they may offer insights into the prolonged dry years experienced in the Yangtze region. Researchers at Nanjing Normal University discovered earlier this year that rainfall in the area increases with industrial pollution and decreases as the skies are cleaned up. Between 2013 and 2020, PM2.5 concentrations in the heart of the basin decreased by 50%, yet they remain above levels deemed safe. This indicates a concerning potentiality. Beijing initiated the planning of its extensive hydroelectric system as a primary defense against increasing carbon emissions. However, the emergence of wind, solar, batteries, and electric vehicles has since altered the landscape significantly.
The dams were designed according to climate forecasts from before 2013, a period when the weather patterns in southwest China were heavily influenced by the dense particulate smog generated during the initial phase of its economic expansion. The argument for the Yarlung Tsangpo, regarded as the final and most significant of these initiatives, relies on comparable assessments of rainfall that could potentially be outdated. As the current streak of drought years persists alongside underperforming dams, China faces increasing challenges in meeting the demands of its citizens during the sweltering summer monsoon heat exacerbated by a warming planet. The coal generators, which are currently diminishing due to the rise of wind and solar energy, are expected to extend their impact for a few more years. “If the Yangtze’s dry spell doesn’t break soon, all of us will suffer,” experts warn, highlighting the potential widespread impact of the ongoing drought.
