OPEC+ Keeps 2026 Oil Output Steady, Implements Capacity Mechanism
OPEC+ reached a consensus to maintain oil output levels for the first quarter of 2026 during its meetings on Sunday, as the group moderates its efforts to reclaim market share in light of concerns regarding a potential supply glut. The OPEC+ meeting, responsible for half of the global oil supply, takes place amid renewed US attempts to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, a development that could potentially increase oil supply if sanctions on Russia are lifted. If the peace deal fails, Russia may experience additional restrictions on its supply due to sanctions. OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries alongside allies led by Russia. Brent crude concluded trading on Friday at approximately $63 a barrel, reflecting a decline of 15 percent for the year. “The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” said Jorge Leon.
Eight OPEC+ members have halted oil output increases for the first quarter of 2026 following the release of approximately 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025. This decision was reaffirmed during Sunday’s meeting, according to a statement from OPEC. OPEC+ currently maintains approximately 3.24 million barrels per day of output cuts, which accounts for roughly 3 percent of global demand. The Sunday meetings did not change those. These include a 2 million bpd oil output cut by most members, effective until the end of 2026, along with the remaining 1.24 million bpd of a 1.65 million bpd reduction that the eight members began to reintroduce to the market in October. OPEC announced that the OPEC+ group has sanctioned a mechanism to evaluate the maximum production capacity of its members, and this assessment will be utilized for establishing output baselines starting in 2027, which will serve as the reference for setting members’ output targets.
According to sources following the meetings, the assessment is scheduled to take place between January and September 2026, allowing for the determination of output quotas for 2027. According to the sources, one company will evaluate the capacity of 19 out of the 22 OPEC+ members, while capacity in countries facing sanctions will be evaluated either by an independent firm or by calculating an average of their oil production figures from August to October 2026. Among the OPEC+ members, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela face Western sanctions.
OPEC+ has engaged in discussions regarding production capacity and quotas for years, facing challenges as certain members, including the United Arab Emirates, have expanded their capacity and are advocating for higher quotas. Other members, including African countries, have experienced declines in production capacity yet are resisting quota cuts. In 2024, Angola exited the group due to a disagreement regarding its production quotas.
