Live Index – Tue, 20 Jan 2015 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.62%) this morning are up +0.51% and European stocks are up +0.84% at a 6-week high as China’s economy grew more than estimated last quarter and on expectations that the ECB will boost stimulus at Thursday’s policy meeting. Another positive for European stocks was an increase in German investor confidence to the highest in 11 months. Stocks gains were muted, however, after the IMF cut its 2015 global GDP forecast. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.07%, Hong Kong +0.90%, China +1.22%, Taiwan +0.85%, Australia -0.03%, Singapore +0.80%, South Korea +1.00%, India +1.85%. Asian stocks received a boost after China reported Q4 GDP of 7.3% y/y, better than expectations of 7.2% y/y. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -2.40%) is down -2.16%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -1.08%) is down -1.15%. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.87%) is up +0.74% at a 4-1/2 month high after the action by the IMF to cut its 2015 global GDP estimate bolstered speculation that word central banks will continue their overly easy monetary policies. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.75%) is down -0.84%. Agriculture prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) is up +0.27%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.20%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.98%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.12%) are down -3 ticks.

German Jan ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +13.5 to 48.4, better than expectations of +5.1 to 40.0 and the highest in 11 months. Jan ZEW survey current situation rose +12.4 to 22.4, better than expectations of +3.0 to 13.0.

The IMF cut its 2015 global GDP forecast to 3.5%, down from a 3.8% pace projected in Oct, saying “the world economy is facing strong and complex cross currents.” The IMF cut its 2015 China GDP estimate to 6.8% from 7.1% in Oct and lowered its Eurozone GDP forecast to 1.2% from 1.3% projected in Oct. Conversely, the IMF raised its 2015 U.S. GDP forecast to 3.6% from an Oct estimate of 3.1%.

German Dec PPI fell -0.7% m/m, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.4% m/m and the largest monthly decline in 5-1/3 years. On an annual basis, Dec PPI fell -1.7% y/y, more than expectations of -1.4% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 4-3/4 years.

China Q4 GDP rose +7.3% y/y, better than expectations of +7.2% y/y, but unchanged from Q3 and the slowest pace of expansion since Q1 of 2009.

China Dec industrial production rose +7.9% y/y, better than expectations of +7.4% y/y.

China Dec retail sales rose +11.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +11.7% y/y.

Today’s NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) housing market index is expected to rise 1 point to 58, thus matching the 9-year high posted on Sep 2014.  There are 5 the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today:  Goldman Sachs (consensus $ 4.36), Schwab (0.24), Comerica (0.77), SunTrust Banks (0.80), PNC Financial (1.73).  Equity conferences today include:  Conference Board of Canada: Oil and Gas Summit 2015 on Tue, World Future Energy Summit 2015 Abu Dhabi Tue-Wed, CIBC Whistler Institutional Investor Conference on Wed.

CME Group (CME +0.20%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup who raised its price target for the shares to $ 94 from $ 88.

T-Mobile (TMUS -0.14%) was upgraded to ‘Conviction Buy’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Morgan Stanley (MS +0.90%) reported Q4 continuing operations EPS of 47 cents, below consensus of 48 cents.

Archer Daniels (ADM +1.00%) was downgraded to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at JPMorgan Chase.

Viacom (VIAB +2.39%) was downgraded to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Morgan Stanley.

Halliburton (HAL +4.82%) reported Q4 EPS of $ 1.19, better than consensus of $ 1.10.

Intel (INTC +0.72%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at JMP Securities.

Watsco (WSO unch) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at Goldman Sachs.

Regions Financial (RF +0.89%) reported Q3 EPS of 14 cents, well below consensus of 21 cents.

Exelon (EXC +0.30%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Wells Fargo.

Baker Hughes (BHI +5.66%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $ 1.44, well above consensus of $ 1.07.

Value Act reported a 5.1% stake in Baker Hughes (BHI +5.66%) .

AT&T (T +1.62%) reported a Q4 $ 10 billion charge related to pension benefits and network assets.

Carl Icahn raised his stake in Manitowoc (MTW +4.13%) to 7.81% from 7.77%.

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Russia’s government bond rating to Baa3 from Baa2. The rating was also placed on review for further downgrade.

Green Courte Partners reported a 15.03% stake in Sun Communities (SUI +0.80%) .

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.62%) this morning are up +10.25 points (+0.51%). The S&P 500 index on Friday rebounded from a 1-month low and closed higher: S&P 500 +1.34%, Dow Jones +1.10%, Nasdaq +1.28%. Bullish factors included (1) the +4.6 point increase in the preliminary U.S. Jan University of Michigan consumer confidence to 98.2, better than expectations of +0.5 to 94.1 and the highest in 11 years, and (2) strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.12%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday fell back from a contract high and closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -15.50, FVH5 -10.50. Negative factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Jan University of Michigan consumer confidence to an 11-year high, and (2) the rebound in the S&P 500 which recovered from a 1-month low and closed higher, which prompted long liquidation and reduced safe-haven demand in T-notes.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) this morning is up +0.251 (+0.27%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0023 (-0.20%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.15 (+0.98%). The dollar index on Friday soared to an 11-year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.168 (+0.18%), EUR/USD -0.00697 (-0.60%), USD/JPY +1.375 (+1.18%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD which sank to an 11-year low on expectations for the ECB to announce QE when it meets Thursday, and (2) the surge in U.S. Jan University of Michigan consumer confidence to an 11-year high, which bolsters the outlook that the Fed will soon raise interest rates.

Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 -2.40%) this morning is down -$ 1.05 a barrel (-2.16%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -1.08%) is down -0.0156 (-1.15%). Feb crude oil and Feb gasoline on Friday closed higher: CLG5 +2.23 (+4.82%), RBG5 +0.0594 (+4.57%). Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Jan University of Michigan consumer confidence to an 11-year high, which may help boost consumer spending and fuel demand, and (2) the action by the IEA to cut its 2015 non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate by -350,000 bpd.