Thu Oct 09 2014
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Live Index – Thu, 09 Oct 2014 Premarket

PREMARKET WORLD NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.03%) this morning are up +0.14% and European stocks are up +0.29% after Wednesday’s dovish minutes from the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting bolstered speculation the Fed may hold off on raising interest rates. Another positive for stocks is the nearly 3% jump in Alcoa which kicked off the start of Q3 earnings season late yesterday by reporting its highest earnings in 3 years. As expected, the BOE maintained its benchmark interest rate and kept its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds following the conclusion of its 2-day policy meeting. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.75%, Hong Kong +1.17%, China +0.14%, Taiwan +0.13%, Australia +1.06%, Singapore +1.01%, South Korea closed for holiday, India +1.49%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index bucked the trend of rallying global stocks and tumbled to a 1-1/4 month low as exporters declined after the yen rose to a 3-week high against the dollar, which dampens exporters’ earnings prospects, while China’s Shanghai Stock Index pushed up to a 1-1/2 year high after Premier Li Keqiang said the Chinese government will use “targeted measures” to support economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.10%) is up +0.07%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 -0.83%) is down -0.69%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +1.95%) is up +1.94% at a 1-1/2 week high as the dollar slides. Dec copper (HGZ14 +1.33%) is up +1.18%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with Dec live cattle up +0.60% at a contract high. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.30%) is down -0.26% at a 2-week low after yesterday’s FOMC minutes pushed backed expectations on when the Fed will start to raise interest rates. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.24% at a 2-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.42% at a 3-week low. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.30%) are up 11.5 ticks at a new contract high as the 10-year T-note yield tumbled to a 15-month low of 2.293%.

The German Aug trade balance narrowed to a surplus of +14.1 billion euros from a +23.5 billion euros surplus in Jul, narrower than expectations of +17.7 billion euros and the smallest surplus in 8 months. Aug exports fell -5.8% m/m, a larger decline than expectations of -4.0% m/m and the biggest monthly drop in 5-1/2 years. Aug imports unexpectedly fell for a second month s they declined -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m.

Japan Sep machine tool orders jumped +34.8% y/y, the twelfth consecutive monthly increase.

Japan Aug machine orders rose +4.7% m/m and fell -3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and -4.9% y/y.

The UK Sep RICS housing market survey price balance fell to 30% from a downward revised 39% in Aug, the lowest in 15 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s initial claims report is expected to show an increase of +8,000 to 295,000, exactly offsetting last week’s decline of -8,000 to 287,000. Today’s continuing claims report is expected to show an increase of +12,000 to 2.410 million, offsetting part of last week’s decline of -45,000 to 2.398 million. The Treasury today will sell $ 13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $ 61 billion coupon package. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: PepsiCo (consensus $ 1.29), Family Dollar Stores (0.77). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: 2014 IIF Annual Membership Meeting on Fri.

 

PREMARKET U.S. STOCKS

Apple (AAPL +2.08%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Perform’ at Oppenheimer.

Endo (ENDP +3.80%) will acquire Auxilium (AUXL -0.57%) in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $ 2.6 billion.

Toyota Motors (TM +0.38%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Colgate-Palmolive (CL +1.42%) was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at BMO Capital.

Vulcan Materials (VMC +1.24%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Longbow with a price target of $ 70.

Men’s Wearhouse (MW +1.07%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at Jefferies with a price target of $ 60.

PepsiCo (PEP +0.90%) reported Q3 EPS of $ 1.36, better than conensus of $ 1.29.

Nuance (NUAN +0.41%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading following rumors that Carl Icahn will recommend that Apple buy the company.

Tesoro (TSO +4.13%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $ 81.

Digiies reports that Q3 worldwide PC shipments declined -1.7% on year.

GrubHub (GRUB +2.51%) rose nearly 1% in after-hours trading after it was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at CRT Capital with a price target of $ 44.

Karpus Management reported an 8.63% stake in Chase Industries (CSI -0.10%) .

Alcoa (AA +0.75%) jumped nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 31 cents, well above consensus of 23 cents.

Gap (GPS +1.70%) slumped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after the company named Art Peck to succeed Glenn Murphy as CEO.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.03%) this morning are up +2.75 points (+0.14%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday tumbled to a 2-month low early but recovered in the afternoon and closed sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.75%, Dow Jones +1.64%, Nasdaq +2.08%. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said the Fed should be “exceptionally patient” before they start to raise interest rates, and (2) reduced expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner than expected after the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes stated that Fed members were worried that a global slowdown and a stronger dollar posed potential risks to the U.S. economy.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.30%) this morning are up +11.5 ticks at a new contract high. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a contract high and closed higher. Bullish factors for T-notes included (1) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate (i.e., the 10-year T-note yield minus the 10-year TIP yield) fell to a 1-1/4 year low of +1.91%, and (2) the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes saying that Fed members were concerned that a global slowdown and dollar strength may undercut the U.S. economy. Closes: TYZ4 +12.00, FVZ4 +11.25.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.30%) this morning is down -0.221 (-0.26%) at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0030 (+0.24%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.45 (-0.42%) at a 3-week low. The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes in which policy makers expressed concern that a global slowdown and a stronger dollar may undercut the U.S. economy, and (2) dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said the Fed should be “exceptionally patient” before they start to raise interest rates. Closes: Dollar index -0.375 (-0.44%), EUR/USD +0.00649 (+0.51%), USD/JPY +0.053 (+0.05%).

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.10%) this morning is up +6 cents (+0.07%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 -0.83%) is down -0.0161 (-0.69%). Nov crude and Nov gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower with Nov crude at a 17-1/2 month low and Nov gasoline at a 3-3/4 year low: CLX4 -1.54 (-1.73%), RBXX4 -0.0499 (-2.10%). Bearish factors included (1) the +5.01 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, more than twice expectations of +2.0 million bbl, (2) the unexpected +1.18 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline inventories, higher than expectations of a -500,000 bbl draw, and (3) the +0.4% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Oct 3 to 8.875 million bpd, a new 28-1/2 year high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/09/2014
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +8,000 to 295,000, previous -8,000 to 287,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +12,000 to 2.410 million, previous -45,000 to 2.398 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETAug wholesale inventories expected +0.3% m/m, Jul +0.1% m/m. Aug wholesale trade sales expected +0.3%, Jul +0.7% m/m.
1015 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on monetary policy at the St. Louis Feds annual bank conference.
1100 ETECB President Mario Draghi and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speak on the latest developments in Europe and global central banking at the Brookings Institute.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $ 13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
1315 ETRichmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the Prospects for Growth and Labor Markets at an event in Asheville, North Carolina.
1330 ETFed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on the global economy on a panel discussion at the 2014 IMF annual meeting.
1540 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook at an event in Las Vegas, NV.
JPN0200 ETJapan Sep machine tool orders, Aug +35.5% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Aug tertiary industry index expected +0.1% m/m, Jul unch m/m.
GER0200 ETGerman Aug trade balance expected +17.7 billion euros, Jul +23.4 billion euros. Aug exports expected -4.0% m/m, Jul +4.8% m/m. Aug imports expected +0.9% m/m, Jul -1.8% m/m.
EUR0400 ETECB publishes monthly report.
UK0700 ETBOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset target.
CHIn/aChina Sep new yuan loans expected +745.8 billion yuan, Aug +702.5 billion yuan.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/09/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
PepsiCo IncPEP US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.289
L Brands IncLB US7:30September 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014
PepsiCo IncPEP US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Leucadia National CorpLUK US9:00Investor DayY 2014
General Electric CoGE US9:30Investor Meeting – Minds + Machines
Time Warner Cable IncTWC US10:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting2014
WPX Energy IncWPX US10:00Business Update Call
General Electric CoGE US13:30Investor Meeting – Services & Industrial InternetY 2014
Family Dollar Stores IncFDO US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Family Dollar Stores IncFDO USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.769
L Brands IncLB USSeptember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW USInvestor Meeting – Day 4Y 2014
Questar CorpSTR USRoadshow – Day 2Y 2014
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST USSeptember 2014 Sales and Revenue Call
RPM International IncRPM USAnnual General Meeting

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