Live Index – Fri, 25 Apr 2014 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 -0.32%) this morning are down -0.21% due to the Ukraine situation and weak overseas stock markets. Russia’s Micex stock index is down -0.8% this morning due to a surprise Russian rate hike, the worsening Ukraine situation, and S&P’s one-step downgrade of Russia’s sovereign debt rating to the lowest investment grade rating. The MSCI Emerging Markets index this morning is down -0.8%. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is down -0.77%. Asian stocks today closed mostly lower: Japan +0.17%, Hong Kong -1.50%, China -1.03%, Taiwan -1.92%, Singapore -0.50%, South Korea -1.40%, India -0.82%, and Turkey -0.68%. Commodity prices this morning are little changed on net. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.64%) is down -0.52%, Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.58%) is down -0.54%, Jun gold (GCM14 +0.83%) is up +0.51%, and May copper (HGK14 +0.02%) is down -0.18%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) is down -0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.4% while USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.21%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 +0.20%) are up 8.5 ticks on safe-haven buying.

Russia’s central bank today unexpectedly raised its benchmark 1-week auction rate by 50 bp to 7.50% as a further measure to support the ruble, prevent a further outflow of capital, and curb inflation which reached +6.9% in March. However, the rate hike will hurt the Russian economy and stock market. The ruble this year has fallen by -8.4% thanks largely to the Ukraine crisis and a sharp exodus of capital from Russia that totaled $ 50 billion in Q1. Today’s 50 bp rate hike followed the 150 bp rate hike in March to 7.0% that was sparked by Russia’s initial invasion of Crimea. S&P today cut its sovereign rating on Russia by one step to BBB-, the lowest investment grade level.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry yesterday said that Russia is not living up to the recent agreement to de-escalate tensions in Ukraine. Mr. Kerry said, “If Russia continues in this direction, it will not just be a grave mistake, it will be an expensive mistake.” President Obama today will call European leaders to discuss new sanctions on Russia.

U.K. retail sales including auto fuel rose by +0.1% m/m, which was stronger than market expectations of -0.4% and added to Feb’s report of +1.3% m/m. March retail sales rose +4.2% y/y. The report provided fresh positive news for the U.K. economy. The market is expecting UK Q1 GDP next Tuesday to be reported at +0.9% q/q and +3.2% y/y, stronger than Q4’s +0.7% q/q and +2.7% y/y.

Japan’s March national CPI rose by +1.6% y/y, up from +1.5% in Feb and in line with market expectations. The Tokyo April CPI rose sharply to +3.0% y/y from +1.3% in March and was stronger than market expectations of +2.9% as the increase in the national sales tax boosted prices.

Today’s final-April U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 83.0 from the early-April level of 82.6. There are 15 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Ford (consensus $ 0.31), AbbVie (0.68), State Street (1.00), and Moody’s (0.91). There are no equity conferences during the remainder of this week.

June E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.21% due to the worsening situation in Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +2.0% increase in Mar durable goods orders ex-transportation, more than expectations of +0.6% and the most in 14 months, and (2) strength in technology stocks after Apple and Facebook reported better-than-expected earnings results. Gains were limited after (1) U.S. weekly jobless claims rose +24,000 to 329,000, more than expectations of +11,000 to 315,000, and (2) concern the Ukraine crisis may escalate after Russian President Putin warned of consequences if Ukraine troops continue hostilities against pro-Russian separatists. Closes: S&P 500 +0.17%, Dow Jones unch, Nasdaq +0.96%.

• Of the 15 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today, 11 have already reported. Results have been mixed. Better-than-expected results include Weyerhaeuser (WY +0.49%) (0.26 vs 0.24), Tyco (TYC -0.45%) (0.45 vs 0.41), Covidien (COV +0.58%) (0.96 vs 0.95), Aon (AON +0.16%) (1.28 vs 1.18), Moody’s (MCO -0.29%) (1.00 vs 0.91), VF Corp (VFC -0.66%) (0.67 vs 0.63), DTE Energy (DTE +0.34%) (1.69 vs 1.47). Weaker than expected results include: Whirlpool (WHR +0.74%) (2.20), Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.85%) (0.68 vs 0.682), Ford (F +0.55%) (0.25 vs 0.31), and State Street (STT -0.27%) (0.99 vs 1.00).
• Under Armour (UA -7.38%) will replace Beam (BEAM -0.02%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Apr 30.
• Navient (NAVIV -0.89%) will replace Sallie Mae (SLM -0.62%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Apr 30.
• Universal Health (UHS +1.98%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $ 1.36, stronger than consensus of $ 1.22.
• Masco (MAS +1.35%) reported Q1 continuing operations EPS of 21 cents, better than consensus of 17 cents.
• Bloomberg reported that U.S. prosecutors are seeking more than $ 13 billion from Bank of America (BAC -0.18%) as part of a deal to resolve probes into the bank’s sale of residential mortgage-backed securities.
• Hanesbrands (HBI +1.36%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 76 cents, well above consensus of 58 cents, and then raises guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS view to $ 4.80-$ 5.00 from $ 4.60-$ 4.80, higher than consensus of $ 4.73.
• Chubb (CB +1.42%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $ 1.50, weaker than consensus of $ 1.56.
• Swift Transport (SWFT +0.64%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, right on consensus, although Q1 revenue of $ 1.0 billion was slightly less than consensus of $ 1.02 billion.
• Visa (V +0.28%) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $ 2.20, higher than consensus of $ 2.18.
• Edwards Lifesciences (EW +0.44%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 76 cents, better than consensus of 69 cents.
• Amazon.com (AMZN +3.87%) reported Q1 EPS of 23 cents, right on consensus, but Q1 revenue of $ 19.74 billion ws higher than consensus of $ 19.43 billion.
• Starbucks (SBUX +0.99%) reported Q2 EPS of 56 cents, right on consensus, although Q2 revenue of $ 3.87 billion was below consensus of $ 3.95 billion.
• Broadcom (BRCM +2.40%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 51 cents, stringer than consensus of 46 cents.
• Microsoft (MSFT +0.43%) reported Q3 EPS of 68 cents, higher than consensus of 63 cents.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS +1.96%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 97 cents, better than consensus of 93 cents.

Jun 10-year T-notes this morning are up +8.5 ticks on weak world stocks and increased concern about Russia and Ukraine. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed slightly lower. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Mar durable goods orders report, and (2) the rally in stocks. T-notes rebounded from their worst levels on increased safe-haven demand after Russian President Putin warned Ukraine of consequences if it continues its offensive against pro-Russian separatists. Closes: TYM4 -1.00, FVM4 -0.50.

The dollar index this morning is slightly lower by -0.10% while EUR/USD is up +0.04% and USD/JPY is down -0.21%. The dollar index on Thursday closed slightly lower. USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low on increased safe-haven demand for the yen on concern about the Ukraine crisis. EUR/USD closed higher after the German Apr IFO business climate index unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 111.2, better than expectations of -0.3 to 110.4. Closes: Dollar index -0.056 (-0.07%), EUR/USD +0.00149 (+0.11%), USD/JPY -0.224 (-0.22%).

Jun WTI crude oil this morning is down -0.52% and Jun gasoline is down -0.54% on concern about the global economy with a new round of sanctions on Russia appearing more likely by the day. Jun crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower with June gasoline at a 9-month high. Supportive factors included (1) increased concerns about the Ukraine crisis, and (2) signs of strength in the U.S. economy after the +2.6% increase in Mar durable goods orders, better than expectations of +2.0% and the most in 6 months. Closes: CLM4 +0.50 (+0.49%). RBM4 +0.0048 (+0.16%).