Live Index – Thu, 03 Apr 2014 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.11%) this morning are up +0.13% and European stocks are up +0.25% ahead of the results of today’s ECB meeting and the monthly press conference from ECB President Draghi. European stocks also received a boost from the stronger-than-expected Eurozone Feb retail sales. The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond rose to a 1-week high of 3.317% even after the government sold 5.58 billion euros of securities due in 2019, 2024 and 2026, more than the maximum target of 5.5 billion euros. Divergent monetary policies between the Fed, which is cutting stimulus, and the ECB, which is keeping its policies accommodative, has widened the spread between U.S. 10-year T-note yields and 10-year German bund yields to 119 bp, the most in nearly 8 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.84%, Hong Kong +0.18%, China -0.72%, Taiwan -0.19%, Australia +0.12%, Singapore +0.85%, South Korea -0.14%, India -0.19%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index pushed up to a 3-week high as exporters rallied after the yen fell to a 2-1/4 month low against the dollar. China’s Shanghai Stock Index closed lower even after the government outlined a package of measures including tax relief to support the economy and create jobs. Commodity prices are mostly lower. May crude oil (CLK14 -0.29%) is down -0.39%. May gasoline (RBK14 -0.14%) is down -0.09%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.50%) is down -0.30%. May copper (HGK14 -0.94%) is down -0.62%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04% at a 2-1/4 month high. June T-note prices (ZNM14 +0.04%) are up +2 ticks.

Eurozone Feb retail sales rose +0.4% m/m and +0.8% y/y, better than expectations of -0.5% m/m and +0.7% y/y, although Jan retail sales were revised lower to +1.0% m/m and +0.8% y/y from the originally reported +1.6% m/m and +1.3% y/y.

The China Mar non-manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to 54.5.

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +8,000 to 319,000, reversing most of last week’s -10,000 decline to 311,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show an increase of +20,000 to 2.843 million, reversing part of last week’s -53,000 decline to 2.823 million. Today’s Feb trade deficit is expected to narrow mildly to -$ 38.5 billion from -$ 39.1 billion in January. Today’s March ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a +1.9 point increase to 53.5, reversing most of the -2.4 point decline to 51.6 seen in February.

There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: RPM International (consensus $ 0.09), Micron Technology (0.75), Global Payments (0.95). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Wells Fargo Tech Transformation Summit on Wed-Thu, HSBC Real Estate Conference on Thu, and Wells Fargo Tech Transformation Summit on Thu.

Monsanto (MON +0.38%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at JPMorgan Chase.

Eli Lilly (LLY +0.56%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Cowen.

Citigroup (C +0.92%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Sterne Agee.

Norfolk Southern (NSC -0.41%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at Atlantic Equities.

National Retail Properties (NNN +0.06%) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at UBS.

Deutsche Bank (DB +0.35%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at JPMorgan Chase.

The Charlotte Business Journal reported that Family Dollar (FDO -0.40%) cut 135 jobs, or roughly 6% of the staff, at its corporate headquarters in North Carolina.

Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.43%) rose nearly 3% in European trading after it announced topline results from a Phase 3 clinical trial in Japan evaluating the once-daily nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir in combination with ribavirin for the treatment of the genotype 2 chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

Cheniere Energy (LNG +0.14%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Credit Suisse.

CACI International (CACI +0.68%) fell more than 10% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $ 5.12-$ 5.51 from $ 5.59-$ 5.98, well below consensus of $ 5.78.

Intel (INTC -0.38%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at Piper Jaffray.

Broadcom (BRCM -0.92%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at Piper Jaffray.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.11%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.13%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday rose to another record high and closed higher. Bullish factors included optimism about the U.S economic outlook after (1) the Mar ADP employment report rose +191,000, close to expectations of +195,000 and the upward revision for Feb to +178,000 from +139,000, and (2) the +1.6% increase in Feb factory orders, better than expectations of +1.2% and the biggest gain in 5 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.29, Dow Jones +0.24%, Nasdaq +0.21%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 +0.04%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) expectations for the Fed to keep on tapering QE3 after the Mar ADP employment report showed a relatively large increase and after Feb factory orders rose by the most in 5 months, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 posted another record high. Closes: TYM4 -4.50, FVM4 -1.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.026 (+0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0006 (-0.04%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04 (+0.04%) at a 2-1/4 month high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) strength in Mar ADP employment, which bolsters the outlook for the Fed to keep tapering QE3, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY rallied to a 2-1/4 month high after the S&P 500 posted a fresh all-time high, which reduced safe-haven demand for the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.121 (+0.15%), EUR/USD -0.00257 (-0.19%), USD/JPY +0.232 (+0.22%).

May WTI crude oil (CLK14 -0.29%) this morning is down -39 cents(-0.39%) and May gasoline (RBK14 -0.14%) is down -0.0026 (-0.09%). May crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower with May crude at a 1-week low and May gasoline at a 1-3/4 month low. Bearish factors included (1) weak U.S. fuel demand after EIA data showed U.S. fuel consumption in the week ended Mar 28 slipped to 18.199 million bpd, the lowest in 9-1/2 months, and (2) speculation that the -2.379 million bbl drop in weekly EIA crude inventories was due to the recent closure of the Houston Ship Channel, and that crude inventories next week will surge as the channel reopened. Closes: CLK4 -0.12 (-0.12%). RBK4 -0.0029 (-0.10%).