Exit polls project victory for Modi in the Indian elections

Mon Jun 03 2024
Rajesh Sharma (2060 articles)
Exit polls project victory for Modi in the Indian elections

According to TV exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance, headed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to secure a significant majority in the recently concluded general election. These polls indicate that the alliance is poised to outperform the predictions made by most analysts.

Exit polls indicate that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to secure a significant majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament. A two-thirds majority, which requires 272 seats for a simple majority, is within reach for the NDA. With a two-thirds majority, the government can enact significant changes to the constitution.

According to a summary of five major exit polls, the projected outcome suggests that the NDA could secure a significant number of seats, potentially between 353 and 401. This outcome is expected to have a positive impact on financial markets when they resume trading on Monday. In the 2019 general election, the NDA emerged victorious with 353 seats, with the BJP securing 303 of those seats.

According to three out of the five polls, the BJP is expected to surpass the 303 seats it won in 2019. The opposition alliance led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party was projected to win between 125 and 182 seats.

Exit polls in India have a mixed track record, often failing to accurately predict the outcome. Analysts attribute this challenge to the country’s vast size and diversity.
After voting ended, Modi confidently declared his victory, not even mentioning the exit polls.

“I can confidently state that the citizens of India have cast their votes in unprecedented numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he stated on X, without substantiating his assertion. “The INDI Alliance, despite their efforts, did not resonate with the voters.” They exhibit discriminatory, divisive, and unethical behavior.

Pre-election surveys indicated that the BJP was expected to comfortably maintain its majority in the election. However, the party faced a strong campaign by the “INDIA” alliance, which raised some uncertainty about the competitiveness of the race. Numerous political analysts had anticipated that the BJP’s margin of victory would be similar to or slightly smaller than the 2019 tally.

The opposition disregarded the exit polls, and prior to their release, had criticized them as biased. Opposition parties often criticize India’s main news channels for alleged bias in favor of Modi, a claim that the channels vehemently deny. Exit polls in India are often regarded as lacking scientific rigor, according to some sources.

“This is a government exit poll, this is Narendra Modi’s exit poll,” Supriya Shrinate, the Congress’s social media head, stated to news agency ANI, in which Reuters has a minority stake. “We have a good understanding of the number of seats we are winning, and it will definitely not be fewer than 259,” she stated.

Approximately one billion individuals were eligible to participate in the seven-phase election, which commenced on April 19 and took place amidst sweltering summer temperatures in numerous regions. The Election Commission is scheduled to count votes on June 4, with results anticipated to be announced on the same day.

If Modi, 73, secures a victory, he will join the ranks of only a few prime ministers, including independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru, who have won three consecutive terms.

Modi initiated his re-election campaign by highlighting his accomplishments from the past decade, but swiftly shifted his focus towards criticizing the Congress party for allegedly showing bias towards India’s minority Muslims, a claim that the opposition party refutes.

The opposition has primarily focused their campaign on affirmative action programs and safeguarding the constitution from what they perceive as Modi’s authoritarian leadership, a claim that the BJP refutes.

Unemployment and inflation are the primary concerns for voters in the majority-Hindu country of 1.4 billion people, according to surveys.
Market analysts have indicated that the exit polls have alleviated any uncertainty surrounding the expected outcome and have indicated the continuation of Modi’s economic policies that prioritize growth.

“The exit poll results, showing a decisive victory for the NDA with approximately 360 seats, alleviate the concerns that have been affecting the markets in May,” stated V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. “This news will greatly benefit the optimists, leading to a significant market rally on Monday,” he said.

Rajesh Sharma

Rajesh Sharma

Rajesh Sharma is Correspondent for Stock Market of South East Asia based in Mumbai. He has been covering Asian markets for more than 5 years.