Mon Jul 13 2015
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Live Index – Mon, 13 Jul 2015 Premarket

PREMARKET WORLD NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.72%) are up +0.64% and European stocks are up +1.65%, both at 2-week highs, after Greek Prime Minister Tsipras capitulated to European demands for immediate action to qualify for up to 86 billion in bailout funds to keep Greece from default and in the Eurozone. Greek lawmakers have until Wednesday to pass the creditor demands that include streamlining value-added taxes, broadening the tax base and cutting pension costs. Another positive for global stocks was the rally in the Shanghai Composite to a 1-week high after China Jun exports rose more than expected, a sign of economic strength. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.57%, Hong Kong +1.30%, China +2.39%, Taiwan +1.34%, Australia -0.34%, Singapore +0.96%, South Korea +1.22%, India +1.08%.

Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.85%) is down -0.89% on optimism a nuclear deal with Iran was imminent, which would allow Iranian crude exports into an oversupplied global market. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.67%) is down -1.82%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.17%) is down -0.20%. Sep copper (HGU15 +0.71%) is up +0.67%. Agricultural prices are mixed.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.39%) is up +0.35%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.84%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.50% at a 1-week high as the rally in global equity markets reduces the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.30%) are down -11.5 ticks at a 1-week low as global government bonds fell back on news of a Greek debt deal. The yield on the 10-year German bund rose to a 1-month high of 0.936%.

The China Jun trade balance shrank to a surplus of +$ 46.54 billion, a smaller surplus than expectations of +$ 56.70 billion. Jun exports rose +2.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% y/y. Jun imports fell -6.1% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -15.5% y/y, but still the eighth consecutive month that imports have declined year-over-year.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jun monthly budget statement (expected +$ 50.0 billion after May’s -$ 82.385 billion).

None the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today include: JM Global Holding (WYIGU).

Equity conferences this week: SEMICON West CEO Investor Summit on Tue-Wed, 2015 International Stewardship Symposium on Wed, Delivering Alpha Conference on Wed.

PREMARKET U.S. STOCKS

Apple (AAPL +2.67%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Societe Generale.

AutoNation (AN +0.65%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Underweight’ at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $ 70.

Brocade (BRCD +3.00%) was downgraded to ‘Sector Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at RBC Capital.

Ingersoll-Rand (IR +0.47%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Stifel.

Murphy Oil (MUR -1.50%) was downgraded to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Morgan Stanley.

Hologic (HOLX +1.98%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Evercore ISI.

Vornado (VNO +0.27%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

PepsiCo (PEP +1.01%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Positive’ at Susquehanna.

Groupon (GRPN -1.22%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Macquarie.

ASM Research, an Accenture Federal Services company (ACN +1.05%) , has been awarded a $ 300 million contract from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

IMAX (IMAX +3.08%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $ 41.

STMicroelectronics (STM +4.97%) was downgraded to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at JPMorgan Chase.

Mark Tompkins reported a 5.6% passive stake in Pieris Pharmaceuticals (PIRS +5.58%) .

ARRIS (ARRS +1.82%) lowered guidance on Q2 EPS view to 51 cents-55 cents from 53 cents-58 cents, below consensus of 56 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.72%) this morning are up +13.25 points (+0.64%). The S&P 500 on Friday closes sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.23%, Dow Jones +1.21%, Nasdaq +1.57%. Bullish factors included (1) optimism that proposals by the Greek government submitted to its creditors will pave the way for a bailout, and (2) reduced Chinese economic concerns after the China Shanghai Composite rallied sharply for a second day on Friday.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.30%) this morning are down -11.5 ticks at a new 1-week low. Sep T-notes on Friday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: TYU5 -30.00, FVU5 -16.75. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied sharply after Greece offered proposals to secure a bailout that French President Hollande said were “serious” and “credible, and (2) comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said she still expects to raise interest rates this year.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.39%) this morning is up +0.34 (+0.35%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0094 (-0.84%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.61 (+0.50%) at a 1-week high. The dollar index Friday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: Dollar Index -0.581 (-0.60%), EUR/USD +0.00188 (+1.08%), USD/JPY +1.366 (+1.13%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which rallied to a 1-1/2 week high on optimism that Greece will be able to secure a bailout after it proposed a package of spending cuts and tax increases to the troika, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as stocks rallied sharply.

Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.85%) this morning is down -47 cents (-0.89%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.67%) is down -0.0366 (-1.82%). Aug crude oil and gasoline Friday erased an early rally and settled lower: CLQ5 -0.04 (-0.08%), RBQ5 -0.0141 (-0.69%). Bearish factors included (1) the statement from the IEA that oil prices may fall further as the global market remains “massively oversupplied,” and (2) the increase in the number of active U.S. oil rigs by 5 to 645, the second consecutive increase. A supportive factor for crude was the fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/13/2015
US1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1400 ETJun monthly budget statement expected +$ 50.0 billion, May -$ 82.385 billion.
1600 ETUSDA weekly crop progress.
JPN0030 ETRevised Japan May industrial production, previous -2.2% m/m and -4.0% y/y. May capacity utilization, Apr 0.4% m/m.
0030 ETJapan May tertiary index expected -0.3% m/m, Apr -0.2% m/m.
UK1901 ETUK Jun BRC sales like-for-like expected +0.5% y/y, May unch y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/13/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Applied Materials IncAMAT US17:00Analyst MeetingY 2015
Garmin LtdGRMN US17:15ITC to Release Findings in Johnson Outdoor vs. Garmin Patent Case
JetBlue Airways CorpJBLU USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release – Traffic Results2015

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