Venezuela wants $183 billion by 2040 to produce 3 mbpd crude
According to Rystad Energy, Venezuela would need to invest approximately $183 billion over the next 15 years, through 2040, to increase crude oil output to 3 million barrels per day. This production level was last reached in the late 1990s, compared to the current output of 1.1 mbpd. Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, American President Donald Trump stated that US oil companies would assume control of Venezuela’s crude production and “rebuild the oil infrastructure” of the country. The energy research firm asserts that approximately $53 billion in oil and gas upstream and infrastructure investment will be required over the next 15 years merely to maintain Venezuela’s crude oil production at a steady rate of 1.1 million bpd. It added that only 300,000 bpd of additional supply can be restored within the next 2-3 years with limited incremental spending.
Increasing production beyond the 1.4 million bpd threshold could be achievable with a consistent investment of $8-9 billion annually from 2026 to 2040, in addition to the necessary ‘hold-flat’ capital expenditures. According to a report from the firm, Venezuelan crude oil production could recover to 2 million bpd by 2032 and reach 3 million bpd by 2040. “While some of this investment can be financed organically by national oil company PDVSA, at least $30-35 billion of international capital would need to be committed in the next 2-3 years to make a 3 million bpd-by-2040 scenario plausible,” said Rystad Energy.
U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb are seen walking during a meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., on August 18, 2025, amid negotiations to end the Russian war in Ukraine. Uncertainty surrounds the progress of peace talks for Ukraine as the focus of the United States shifts towards Venezuela. Venezuela produces merely 0.8 percent of global crude output, despite possessing 18 percent of the world’s oil reserves. This situation highlights years of underinvestment and significant infrastructure constraints. China and the US stand as the foremost purchasers of Venezuelan oil.
Indian companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Reliance Industries may stand to gain from the revival of oil and gas production in Venezuela. ONGC Videsh Ltd possesses interests in two Venezuelan oil fields, namely San Cristobal and Carabobo-1. In 2008, OVL secured a 40 per cent participating interest in the San Cristobal project. By March 31, 2025, it had invested a total of $529.33 million in the oilfield and $240.66 million in the Carobobo-1 project. According to OVL’s records, the company has recognized an impairment in its accounts, while currently holding dividends exceeding $500 million from the San Cristobal project as a result of sanctions.
