Trump reversed 3 decades of US-India relations in months
For three decades, successive American presidents have dedicated significant diplomatic efforts to foster a relationship with India. Bill Clinton, the former president who established the groundwork for the contemporary US-India partnership, referred to the two democracies as “natural allies.” George W. Bush referred to them as “brothers in the cause of human liberty.” Barack Obama and Joe Biden characterized the relationship as one of the defining global compacts of this century.
Washington views India as a vast emerging market and a potential counterweight to China. It is seen as a key partner in maintaining Indo-Pacific security and a rising power whose democratic identity would bolster a rules-based international order. India, historically wary of Western influence following nearly a century of British colonial rule, has gradually overcome its Cold War skepticism towards Washington. This shift comes despite the United States’ long-standing support for Pakistan, India’s primary adversary. As a result, India has moved steadily closer to the United States.
In just one summer, Donald Trump managed to obliterate these gains. In May, he stated, “I ended a brief military conflict between India and Pakistan.” This angered India, which views its conflict with Pakistan as solely bilateral, and embarrassed Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had emphasized his relationship with “my friend Donald Trump.” Mr. Trump had lunch at the White House with Gen. Syed Asim Munir, Pakistan’s army chief and former head of the country’s spy agency. The United States has accused this agency of supporting international terrorist groups. He described India’s economy as “dead” and enacted severe 50 percent tariffs on Indian imports to the United States. This sudden rift carries significant consequences. Mr. Trump’s insults have, to some degree, united India’s permanently clashing political parties — a striking development in a country where Mr. Modi’s divisive rule has left little political common ground. In a significant shift, the United States has emerged as the common adversary for nearly every political faction in India for the first time in decades.
No nation is completely shielded from Mr. Trump’s unpredictable demeanor. India found itself under the illusion of being uniquely safeguarded by the alleged special relationship between Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi, two self-promoting leaders who have prioritized their personal personas over their countries’ foreign relations. Mr. Modi has established a powerful cult of personality domestically, enhanced in part by assertions that Mr. Trump and other global leaders have praised him. Following Mr. Trump’s election in November, pro-Modi Indian media figures reacted with an overwhelming blend of triumph and delight in the misfortunes of others. They stated that with Mr. Modi’s ally back in the White House, India’s adversaries were on alert and expressed enthusiasm about the rapport between the two leaders. In 2020, Mr. Modi notably compromised the nonpartisan nature of India’s relationship with the United States by endorsing Mr. Trump for a second term.
During his presidency, Mr. Biden appeared to overlook this slight. The administration maintained its stance on New Delhi as a crucial ally, though it did not shy away from expressing worries regarding the decline of democratic practices during Mr. Modi’s tenure. Supporters of the Indian leader expressed their belief that Mr. Trump would prioritize pressuring the nation’s adversaries over lecturing New Delhi, thereby facilitating India’s ascent on the global stage. It has not unfolded as anticipated. Mr. Trump has jeopardized the bilateral relationship and dismantled, almost overnight, Mr. Modi’s meticulously crafted image as a globally venerated statesman — something his rivals in the Indian political opposition have been unable to do.
The United States stands as India’s largest trading partner, and the anticipated tariffs are poised to wreak havoc on businesses spanning various sectors, leading to factory closures, job losses, and a deceleration in growth. Trump initially imposed a 25 percent tariff on August 1, marking a significant step in his broader strategy against US trading partners. Days later, he declared an extra 25 percent levy aimed at penalizing India for its purchase of Russian oil. The situation has left many Indians both outraged and puzzled, particularly given that it was Washington that had initially encouraged India to purchase Russian oil in an effort to stabilize global prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China, known for its significant imports of Russian oil, and Europe, which maintains a larger overall trade relationship with Russia than India, have not faced any penalties for these actions. The tariffs are currently facing legal challenges in US courts. In the long run, India, with its status as the world’s fourth-largest economy, a vast domestic market, and robust global trade and investment connections, is poised to endure the impact regardless. Sooner or later, an effort will emerge to mend the relationship with the United States.
However, the trust that was built over three decades will not be easily restored. Indian resentment is likely to persist for an extended period. For New Delhi, this is a defining moment. The question arises: should it submit to Mr. Trump in hopes that the United States will strengthen the partnership against China, or should it pursue a pragmatic rapprochement with Beijing to safeguard trade, investment, and long-term strategic stability in Asia? India faces a pressing question: how can it be assured that Washington will not suddenly weaponise their strategic partnership, much like it has done with trade?
It appears that Indian hedging against such risks may have already begun. This weekend, Mr. Modi embarks on his first visit to China in seven years for a regional summit. At the event, President Xi Jinping is set to personally welcome both him and President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The Indian and Chinese armies engaged in conflict along their contested border in 2020. This visit presents a significant opportunity to recalibrate India-China relations, address ongoing disputes regarding their border, trade, and regional security, and — for China — to potentially shift India away from its alignment with Washington. Ultimately, the United States could face significant losses in this evolving landscape. Questions linger about whether officials in Washington ever genuinely anticipated that the fiercely independent nation of India would step up as a frontline ally in any potential conflict with China.
India’s significance grew as, after years of skepticism towards America, the United States started to foster genuine goodwill in the world’s most populous democracy, which also shares a border with China. This remarkable accomplishment now lies in ruins. Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump, two colossal figures of our time, are destined to fade away eventually. India and the United States face the challenge of liberating themselves from the legacy of these two leaders.
