China’s Exports Surge 22% in Jan-Feb, Even with US Trade Decline
China’s exports increased by nearly 22 percent in the first two months of the year compared to the same period last year, driven by growth in trade with nations outside of the United States. The export figures released by China’s customs agency on Tuesday exceeded economists’ forecasts significantly. They significantly surpassed the 6.6 per cent annual pace of growth recorded in December. In January and February, imports experienced a significant rise of nearly 20 per cent, a notable increase from December’s year-on-year growth of 5.7 per cent. However, China’s imports from the United States fell by nearly 27 percent compared to the previous year.
China’s exports have remained a notable strength for its economy, even amidst ongoing tensions with the US. China’s exports increased by 5.5 percent in 2025, with its trade surplus reaching a historic high of nearly $1.2 trillion. Increased shipments to various regions, such as Europe and Latin America, mitigated a 20 percent decline in exports to the US, following the implementation of higher tariffs on imports from many countries by US President Donald Trump. In January-February, China’s global trade surplus reached $213.6 billion. Trade data is generally aggregated for January and February annually to mitigate seasonal effects stemming from the Lunar New Year festival, the most significant holiday of the year.
A decelerating domestic economy, driven by a prolonged downturn in the property sector, has been impacting the world’s second-largest economy. Last week, Chinese leaders set an economic growth target of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent for 2026, marking the lowest projection since 1991. The conflict in West Asia has created ambiguity regarding trade prospects and has implications for China’s energy security. An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transit point for a significant portion of the world’s trade in oil and gas, could limit China’s access to relatively inexpensive Iranian oil and also hinder its wider commercial activities in the region.
A recent ruling by the US Supreme Court against Trump’s extensive tariffs, which has already led to reduced tariffs for nations such as China, may “provide modest support to Chinese exports,” according to economists from Bank of America in a research note. Trump’s planned visit to Beijing at the end of March is under scrutiny for a potential extension of the trade truce established in October last year, which may bode well for Chinese exports to the US.
