China’s electric trucks are disrupting diesel globally
China is undergoing a subtle yet significant transformation as a silent wave of electric heavy trucks sweeps through the country’s freight network, advancing rapidly enough to influence global diesel demand forecasts and reshape future energy consumption. As climate diplomacy falters and emissions targets become elusive following COP30, reports says that global sales of medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks more than doubled from 2023 to 2024, with China accounting for over four-fifths of those sales. In 2024 alone, global sales exceeded 90,000 units. Several years ago, China’s truck market relied almost entirely on diesel, but by the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks represented 22 per cent of new heavy-truck sales, up from 9.2 per cent in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World. Chinese consulting firm Sublime China Information estimated that new energy truck sales grew 175 percent year-on-year to 76,100 units in the first half of the year, while British firm BMI anticipated electric trucks to comprise nearly 46 percent of new sales this year and 60 percent next year. With heavy trucks contributing significantly to carbon emissions—nearly a third of all road freight emissions in 2024—the transition is critical, despite longstanding challenges linked to battery weight reducing payload versus diesel counterparts.
Historically, liquefied natural gas served as a transitional fuel, but by early 2025, electric and ‘new energy’ trucks accounted for roughly a quarter of new registrations, surpassing LNG truck sales for several months. Data from the IEA shows China made up over 80 percent of global electric truck sales in 2024, and early 2025 data suggests electric shares entering double digits across multiple segments. Major domestic manufacturers such as BYD, Sany, and FAW have increased production and begun exporting electric truck models. The impact on fuel markets has already emerged: diesel consumption in China fell to 3.9 million barrels a day in June 2024, down 11 per cent from the previous year, according to the US Energy Information Administration, due partly to the shift toward LNG and electric trucks. Estimates shows China’s electric trucks are reducing oil demand by more than one million barrels a day. Rystad projects that road freight, which uses two-thirds of China’s diesel, will cut consumption by 40 percent by 2030, reducing overall diesel use by roughly one quarter from 2024 levels. SCI similarly projected a decline of 11.3 million tons, or 6.3 percent, in diesel consumption this year.
China’s early surge in electric truck adoption was supported by sizable government incentives, including a 2024 program offering truck owners up to $19,000 to replace older diesel trucks with new or electric models, backed by rapid charging infrastructure expansion. Major logistics hubs in the Yangtze River Delta now feature dedicated charging stations along major freight corridors, while Beijing and Shanghai have built fast-charging hubs along highways capable of recharging trucks in minutes. CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, launched a battery-swapping system for heavy trucks in May and announced plans for a nationwide swap network covering 150,000 km of the 184,000 km expressway network. China is positioning itself as a major global supplier of electric heavy trucks, with McKinsey reporting 73 percent annual export growth to the Middle East and North Africa from 2021 to 2023, and AP noting a 46 percent export surge to Latin America over the same period.
Manufacturers are preparing for broader global expansion as Sany Heavy Industry plans to begin exporting electric trucks to Europe in 2026, while BYD, Sany, and FAW have already shipped models to the United States, Thailand, India, and the UAE. In June, BYD began building a factory in Hungary to produce electric trucks and buses, aligning with Europe’s mandate to reduce emissions from new trucks by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 2019 levels. With climate goals stalling globally, China’s rapid electrification of its heavy-truck fleet is reshaping global freight, fuel markets, and industrial strategy on a scale that may influence the world’s energy trajectory far more significantly than stalled climate negotiations.
