China’s diesel trucks to electric could affect worldwide demand
China is transitioning from diesel trucks to electric models at an accelerated pace, which could significantly alter global fuel demand and the landscape of heavy transport. In 2020, almost every new truck in China operated on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks represented 22% of new heavy truck sales, an increase from 9.2% during the same period in 2024, as per reports. Reports says that electric trucks will account for nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year. Heavy trucks transport the essential goods that sustain contemporary economies. They also contribute significantly to global emissions of carbon dioxide: “In 2019, road freight generated a third of all transport-related carbon emissions.” Decarbonising trucking has long been viewed as a significant challenge, as electric trucks equipped with heavy batteries tend to have a lower cargo capacity compared to their diesel counterparts, which utilize energy-dense fuel. Advocates of liquefied natural gas consider it a more environmentally friendly alternative as the technology for electric heavy vehicles continues to develop.
Transport fuel demand is plateauing, as noted by the International Energy Agency, and diesel use in China may decline more rapidly than anticipated, stated Christopher Doleman. Electric trucks have surpassed LNG models in sales within China, indicating a potential decline in fossil fuel demand, and “in other countries, it might never take off,” he said. The proportion of electric vehicles in new truck sales has surged from 8% in 2024 to 28% by August 2025, more than tripling as prices have decreased. Electric trucks have surpassed LNG-powered vehicles in sales in China for five consecutive months this year. Electric trucks, while costing two to three times more than their diesel counterparts and approximately 18% more than LNG trucks, offer significant advantages in energy efficiency. Research conducted by Chinese scientists suggests that these benefits can lead to savings for owners estimated between 10% and 26% over the vehicle’s lifetime. “When it comes to heavy trucks, the fleet owners in China are very bottom-line driven,” Doleman said. Initial sales were supported by substantial government incentives, including a 2024 program allowing truck owners to exchange their old vehicles. Owners may receive as much as $19,000 to upgrade from older trucks to newer or electric models.
Investments in charging infrastructure are driving an increase in demand for electric trucks. Major logistics hubs, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta, have established dedicated charging stations along essential freight routes. Cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have established robust charging hubs along highways capable of charging trucks in mere minutes. CATL, the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries, launched a time-saving battery-swapping system for heavy trucks in May and announced plans for a nationwide network of swap stations that will span 150,000 km of China’s 184,000 km of expressways. Analysts say the surge in sales of electric trucks is cutting diesel use and could reshape future LNG demand. In June 2024, diesel consumption in China, the world’s second-largest consumer of the fuel after the United States, decreased to 3.9 million barrels per day. This marks an 11% decline compared to the same month last year and represents the most significant drop since mid-2021. This trend is partially attributed to the transition towards LNG and electric trucks, as per reports. The emergence of China’s electric truck sector stands out as a notably under-reported narrative in the global energy transition, particularly considering its potential effects on regional diesel trade dynamics, remarked Tim Daiss.
LNG truck sales reached their highest point in September 2023 and March 2024 following the relaxation of transport restrictions in China that were put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Liuhanzi Yang. By June 2025, sales had declined by 6% as electric trucks made significant inroads. Shell’s 2025 LNG Outlook indicates that the demand for imported LNG in China, recognized as the world’s largest LNG importer, is expected to keep increasing, in part due to the use of LNG trucks. It also indicates that LNG trucking could potentially extend to additional markets, including India. According to estimates, China’s electric trucks are already reducing oil demand by the equivalent of more than a million barrels a day. However, Doleman perceives LNG as a temporary measure, likely to be observed only in China, where extensive pipeline infrastructure, plentiful domestic gas production, and byproducts such as coke oven gas have established an environment for LNG-fuelled trucking that is not replicated elsewhere. China is planning new emission standards for vehicles that will limit multiple pollutants and set average greenhouse gas targets across a manufacturer’s fleet. “This will make it almost impossible for companies relying solely on fossil-fuel vehicles to comply,” Yang said. A 2020 ICCT study found that LNG-fueled trucks reduce emissions by 2%-9% over a century. However, they may be more polluting in the short term due to methane leaks, a powerful greenhouse gas that can trap over 80 times more heat in the atmosphere in the short term compared to carbon dioxide. Contemporary diesel technology now closely aligns with LNG in terms of air-quality performance.
China, already the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars, is now setting its sights on the global electric truck market. Chinese automakers have managed to reduce costs and accelerate truck manufacturing while ensuring that various parts function together seamlessly through in-house production of most essential components, including batteries, motors, and electronics, stated Bill Russo. China’s bustling delivery sector, especially in urban freight trucking, has served as an early testing ground for these vehicles, he noted. Between 2021 and 2023, exports of Chinese heavy-duty trucks, including electric vehicles, to the Middle East and North Africa experienced an annual growth of approximately 73%, while shipments to Latin America increased by 46%, as reported by McKinsey & Company. The share of electric vehicles is anticipated to increase; however, the existing limitations in charging infrastructure may present a significant challenge. China’s Sany Heavy Industry has announced plans to begin exporting its electric trucks to Europe in 2026. It has already exported some electric trucks to the US, Asian countries like Thailand and India, and the United Arab Emirates, among others. In June, Chinese EV manufacturer BYD commenced construction in Hungary for a factory dedicated to electric trucks and buses, aiming to meet a European mandate that requires a 90% reduction in carbon emissions from new trucks by 2040, relative to 2019 levels. According to a study, prices of zero-emission trucks in Europe must be reduced by approximately 50% to serve as viable alternatives to diesel. Volvo stated that it refrains from commenting on competitors but expressed a welcome for competition under fair terms,” while Scania did not provide a response. “Things are shaking up,” Daiss said.
