Abu Dhabi Hosts Oil Summit as OPEC+ Pauses 2026 Output Plans
Abu Dhabi is set to host a significant oil summit on Monday, shortly after the Opec+ cartel and its allies announced a halt to any further production increases planned for the first quarter of 2026, citing concerns regarding excessive supply in the market. The Opec+ decision arrives concurrently with the United States and the United Kingdom enforcing new oil sanctions aimed at Russia due to its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Among the targets of the sanctions were Rosneft and the Russian oil company Lukoil, prominently featured with their red-and-white logo at the annual Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference in the Emirati capital, where they served as a major sponsor of the event. The UAE has upheld strong connections with Russia in the face of the ongoing conflict, while also acting as a crucial intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow to facilitate negotiations for prisoner exchanges.
On Sunday, Opec+ convened and reached a decision to boost its production by an additional 137,000 barrels of oil starting in December. However, it stated that other adjustments scheduled for January, February, and March of next year would be paused due to seasonality. Opec+ comprises the essential members of the cartel, along with countries outside the group, spearheaded by Russia. On Monday, Brent crude was priced at approximately USD 65 a barrel, a decline from its post-COVID peak of around USD 115 a barrel following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It had decreased to USD 60 a barrel in recent days due to concerns that the market was oversaturated with production.
“Yes, Opec+ is blinking, but it’s a calculated move,” said Jorge Len. Sanctions on Russian producers have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty into supply forecasts, and the group is aware that overproducing at this time could lead to negative consequences in the future. By pausing, Opec+ is safeguarding prices, demonstrating cohesion, and allowing time to assess the impact of sanctions on Russian barrels. Meanwhile, the administration of US President Donald Trump persists in advocating for increased production within America. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who previously served as the Republican governor of North Dakota, attended the Abu Dhabi oil summit on Monday. Burgum is at the helm of Trump’s National Energy Dominance Council. The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the US, a crucial economic and political indicator in the country, was reported at USD 3.03 on Monday.
The oil conference, referred to as ADIPEC, follows the UAE’s hosting of the United Nations COP28 climate talks in 2023. Those discussions concluded with a commitment from nearly 200 nations to transition away from planet-warming fossil fuels, marking the first instance in which the conference made that vital pledge. However, the UAE as a whole continues to aim for an increase in its oil production capacity to 5 million barrels a day in the upcoming years while also pursuing greater clean energy initiatives domestically.
