US soybean producers in panic as China halts purchases over trade concerns
The lush soybean plants tower up to Caleb Ragland’s thighs, ready for harvest, yet the Kentucky farmer is filled with concern. He is uncertain about where he and others in his situation will sell their crop, as China has ceased its purchases. Beijing, which has historically purchased at least a quarter of all soybeans produced in the US, is effectively boycotting them in response to the high tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Chinese goods and to bolster its position in negotiations for a new comprehensive trade agreement. American soybean farmers are now concerned not just about this year’s crop, but also about the long-term sustainability of their businesses, which have been partially reliant on China’s previously unquenchable demand for US beans. “This is a five-alarm fire for our industry,” said Ragland.
The situation could potentially challenge farmers’ loyalty to Trump, even as he continues to maintain robust support across rural America. If no deal is reached soon, there is hope that the government will provide aid as it did during Trump’s first term; however, this is viewed merely as a temporary solution. Trump stated on Thursday that he is contemplating an aid package. Officials from the US and China have engaged in four rounds of trade discussions from May to September, with another round anticipated in the upcoming weeks. No advancements regarding soybeans have been noted. “Getting closer to harvest, I’m honestly getting worried that the time is running out,” said Jim Sutter. Following Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, China retaliated with its own tariffs, which now amount to 34 percent on US soybeans. This results in lower prices for soybeans imported from other countries. China’s retaliatory tariffs have impacted US growers of sorghum, corn, and cotton, and even geoduck divers are feeling the effects. However, soybeans are notable due to the crop’s significant role in US agricultural exports. Soybeans stand as the leading food export from the United States, representing approximately 14 percent of all agricultural products dispatched abroad.
China has emerged as the largest foreign buyer by a significant margin. In the previous year, the United States exported close to $24.5 billion in soybeans, with China representing over $12.5 billion of that total. That stands in contrast to the $2.45 billion spent by the European Union, the second-largest purchaser. This year, China has not purchased beans since May. As US farmers face significant challenges, the Trump administration is experiencing increasing pressure to negotiate a deal with China. As discussions continue, Trump seems prepared to offer assistance. “We’re going to take some of the tariff money, a relatively small amount, but a lot for the farmers, and we’re going to help the farmers out a little bit during this transition period,” Trump said. The survival of most farmers during Trump’s trade war in his first term relied heavily on tens of billions of dollars in government payments. However, that is not the preference of the majority of farmers. “The American farmer, especially myself included, we don’t want aid payments,” said Brian Warpup, 52, a fourth-generation farmer from Warren, Indiana. We are eager to engage in meaningful work. We cultivate the land, we reap the land, and we gather the produce from the land. And the most undesirable outcome we could ever seek is a handout. Farmers are seeking a lasting resolution from Trump.
“Overwhelmingly, farmers have been in President Trump’s corner,” said Ragland. And I believe the message that our soybean farmers collectively wish to convey is: President Trump, we have supported you. We require you to possess ours at this moment. Farmers recognize the effort to offer some immediate assistance, yet their primary requirement is for robust and dependable markets. “Our priority remains seeing the United States secure lasting trade agreements particularly with China that allow farmers to sell their crops and build a sustainable future with long-term customers,” he said. Ragland, 39, aspires for his three sons to be the 10th generation to cultivate his 4,500 acres in Magnolia, Kentucky. He expresses concern that, unless circumstances shift rapidly, thousands of farmers may face dire consequences. As this year began, numerous farmers found themselves merely wishing to break even, facing weak crop prices alongside rising costs. Trump’s tariffs, which rendered their crops uncompetitive globally, further depressed prices. Additionally, tariffs on steel and fertiliser contributed to an increase in costs. Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, expressed his continued confidence in the Trump administration to secure a favorable trade agreement with China.
“I think where the patience is probably wearing thin is the time,” said Johnson. I don’t believe anyone anticipated that we would require this much time, as we were informed of 90 deals, 90 deals in 90 days. The US soybean industry expanded due to Chinese demand beginning in the 1990s, as China experienced its swift economic ascent and sought foreign suppliers to nourish its population. Soybeans, rich in protein, play a crucial role in the diet. China depends on its own crops for steamed beans and tofu; however, it requires a significantly larger quantity of soybeans for oil extraction and animal feed. In 2024, China produced 20 million metric tons of soybeans, while importing over 105 million metric tons. American farmers have increasingly relied on China as their largest customer, which has provided the Chinese with a significant point of leverage, Sutter said. China’s decision to refrain from purchasing US soybeans is viewed as a strategic move to enhance its negotiating position in the ongoing trade discussions. “I think that’s the strategy,” said Sutter of the US Soybean Export Council. China appears to be focusing on soybeans and other agricultural products, recognizing the significant influence of farmers and their importance to the US government.
Liu Pengyu, refrained from addressing specific inquiries regarding soybean purchases but emphasized the importance of collaboration between the US and Beijing. Liu stated, “The essence of China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win.” In 2018, China sought out Brazil in response to the initiation of Trump’s first trade war. According to data, last year, Brazilian beans comprised over 70 percent of China’s imports, whereas the US share decreased to 21 percent. Argentina and several other South American nations are increasing their exports to China, which has diversified its sources to enhance food security. US farmers are expanding their customer base, according to Sutter, who recently traveled to Japan and Indonesia in pursuit of new markets. Taiwan has committed to acquiring $10 billion in soybeans, corn, wheat, and beef over the next four years. Sutter stated, “There’s strong diversification efforts underway.” However, given China’s vast size, it is challenging to make a swift replacement.
Farmers are striving to enhance domestic consumption as well. The increase in biodiesel production has led to a reduction in the export of certain soybeans. Others are processed to yield soybean oil and soybean meal. The United Soybean Board is allocating resources towards research that explores the advantages of utilizing soybeans as feed for dairy cows and hogs. However, Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt, a director with the Soybean Board, is aware that these domestic uses are increasing steadily. “We cannot replace China in one shot,” Ewoldt said. It is unlikely to occur. We must approach this with a sense of realism.
