Crypto Traders on Edge as Macro Data Signals Extended High Rates
The cryptocurrency market is at a crucial juncture as Bitcoin hovers near $68,300, after facing yet another rejection at the $70,000 threshold. Altcoins reflected the risk-off sentiment, with Ethereum declining to approximately $1,965, Solana decreasing by 2.4 percent, and XRP dropping more than 3.3 percent. According to analysts, the short-term market structure seems fragile, as declining ETF inflows since mid-January have reinforced a cautious sentiment. “Risk appetite remains selective, and macro cross-currents are keeping traders defensive,” stated Vikram Subburaj. In derivatives markets, he noted, “The market continues to behave as if it is ‘de-leveraging first, asking questions later.’” Rallies have faced challenges in maintaining momentum, while dips are being selectively purchased at clear support levels. The latest US inflation data for January has shown a softer outcome than anticipated, with the headline CPI rising by 0.2 percent month-on-month and 2.4 percent year-on-year. This development keeps the prospect of rate cuts on the table, although the timing continues to be uncertain. A poll of economists indicates that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates until May, with a possible reduction in June, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” scenario, Subburaj highlighted. “The market is effectively questioning if disinflation can persist without experiencing a growth wobble,” he stated. “Until that becomes clear, crypto is likely to trade like a high-beta macro asset.”
ETF flows have shown a mixed pattern, resulting in largely inconclusive outcomes. On February 12, net outflows reached a significant -$410.2 million, whereas February 13 experienced a slight inflow of $15.1 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs — indicating a tentative stabilization, yet lacking any substantial surge in institutional buying. Bitcoin made a brief ascent to $70,939 but couldn’t maintain that level, currently trading at approximately $68,302, reflecting a decline of 2.87 percent. The 24-hour trading volume stands at $37.67 billion, as reported. During this timeframe, BTC fluctuated between $68,052.55 and $70,939.29. The asset is currently trading more than 45 percent below its all-time high of $126,198, reached on October 7, 2025. It boasts a total market capitalization of $1.36 trillion, making it the largest cryptocurrency in the market.
From a technical perspective, Subburaj pinpointed $68,000 as crucial near-term support, while supply remains a factor around the $70,000–$71,000 range. “As long as BTC holds above this base, the broader structure remains one of consolidation rather than breakdown,” he stated, suggesting that cautious investors look into staggered accumulation near support and utilize risk-managed strategies like SIPs or hedged futures positions. Riya Sehgal presented a somewhat more positive outlook for the near future. If Bitcoin maintains its position above $68,000 and successfully reclaims the $69,500–$70,000 range, analysts anticipate a potential relief rally toward the $72,000–$73,000 levels, indicating a resurgence of bullish momentum. “Conversely, a decisive break below $67,800 may extend the correction toward $66,000 or even $63,500,” she stated.
Ethereum continues to exhibit a pattern of consolidation, hovering around the $1,950 mark. The token successfully reclaimed the $2,100 mark; however, it struggled to maintain those gains due to increased selling pressure. At the latest update, ETH was priced at $1,954.90, reflecting a decline of 6.48 percent, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $26.15 billion. The trading range during this period was noted to be between $1,929 and $2,100, as reported. Sehgal highlighted that a consistent movement above $2,050 could pave the way for an ascent toward the $2,200–$2,250 range, whereas a drop below $1,900 poses the threat of a decline to $1,840 or even lower. Overall, analysts noted that the broader crypto market remains range-bound, with traders closely monitoring key inflection points. Analysts suggest that a robust rebound in Bitcoin surpassing the $70,000 mark could bolster overall market confidence. Conversely, a failure to maintain current support levels might ignite a fresh wave of risk-off sentiment throughout the digital asset landscape.
