Bitcoin Tests $94K Floor as JPMorgan Sees Path to $170K
Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, with a sudden drop below $100,000 per bitcoin raising concerns about a potential catastrophic price collapse. The bitcoin price, which is slightly higher than it was at this time last year, just before it first surpassed the significant $100,000 mark, has faced challenges in sustaining its momentum as we approach the 2024 election. This comes even as traders prepare for a potential bitcoin price shock from U.S. president Donald Trump. Goldman Sachs has raised alarms regarding the U.S. economy, prompting analysts at JPMorgan to declare that the bitcoin price has hit its bottom. They have reaffirmed their 2026 bitcoin price prediction, suggesting that bitcoin could potentially rival gold’s $28.3 trillion market cap. “The bitcoin production cost has empirically acted as a floor for bitcoin, so a $94,000 production cost implies very limited downside to the current bitcoin price,” analysts noted earlier this month in a report. This week, the bitcoin price experienced a significant decline, falling to just over $94,000 per bitcoin from an October peak of $126,000. If this level remains stable, analysts, under the guidance of managing director, would have accurately identified the recent bottom.
Bitcoin’s estimated production cost—a measure of the expenses incurred by miners who secure the network and process transactions in exchange for new bitcoin—has traditionally served as a price floor during periods of market sell-offs. In a recent analysis, analysts noted that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has decreased, “implying a theoretical bitcoin price of close to $170,000” at some point in 2026 as bitcoin aligns with gold’s more than 30% rally over the past few months. Gold has surged to a market capitalization of $28.3 trillion this year, while bitcoin stands at $1.9 trillion. “This mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for bitcoin over the next 6-12 months,” analysts stated.
The gold price has surged this year, significantly outpacing bitcoin and most other assets, as traders engage in the so-called “debasement trade” anticipated to undermine currencies, including the U.S. dollar, in the coming years. The gold-boosting debasement trade has been intensified by U.S. President Donald Trump’s massive spending initiatives and ongoing advocacy for Federal Reserve interest rate reductions and a more accommodative monetary policy. Trump ramped up U.S. government spending and slashed federal taxes in his “big, beautiful bill,” which Congress passed during the summer. This move has led to a greater dependence on borrowing to finance annual expenditures as he aims for growth to avoid a “debt death spiral.” Earlier this month, Tesla billionaire Elon Musk cautioned that resolving the U.S. debt crisis is unattainable without a remarkable acceleration in economic growth—an outcome that bitcoin advocates believe could significantly elevate the bitcoin price.
Meanwhile, a number of bitcoin and crypto market observers remain optimistic in light of the recent fluctuations in bitcoin prices. “JPMorgan has just published a report indicating that support is at $94,000, while reaffirming that their $170,000 price target for the next six to twelve months remains unchanged … While price action may be bearish for now, overall it has been a very good year for crypto in terms of regulation and institutional adoption,” Zhong Yang Chan stated. Zhong Yang Chan highlighted several bullish factors that are contributing to the support of bitcoin’s price. These include the growth of bitcoin and crypto exchange-traded funds, the emergence of crypto treasury companies spearheaded by bitcoin-buyer Strategy, the increasing adoption of stablecoins, and a significant push from Wall Street towards asset tokenization, particularly driven by BlackRock. “Bitcoin has retested its key support zone and is currently holding firm, while the next major support level remains intact—signaling continued technical resilience even amid macro headwinds,” Gabe Selby stated, addressing the recent uncertainty surrounding a potential December Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
