Bitcoin Stays Strong at $92,000 as Analysts Spot Market Bottom
Bitcoin remained around $92,000 yesterday, with analysts and traders highlighting positive technical and macro indicators that imply the cryptocurrency could be moving past its severe sell-off in the fourth quarter. The recent price movement follows several months of volatility, during which bitcoin experienced a decline of up to 35% from its October high exceeding $126,000, driven by forced liquidations and selling pressure from long-term holders. Despite the asset closing December with a decline for the third month in a row — a pattern that is historically uncommon — numerous analysts contend that the current conditions are ripe for a recovery. “We believe with reasonable confidence that Bitcoin and broader digital asset markets have bottomed,” analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team stated in a note, pinpointing the late-November lows around $80,000 as the probable low point of the cycle. Bernstein countered worries that bitcoin has reached its peak in the typical four-year cycle, labeling these concerns as “overstated” in a market that is becoming more influenced by institutional involvement rather than retail speculation.
“As we have highlighted earlier, we believe the market concern on the four-year cycle pattern is unwarranted in the current market context, where institutional demand is driving adoption,” the analysts stated. Bernstein has reaffirmed its optimistic long-term perspective, holding firm on price targets of $150,000 for bitcoin by 2026 and $200,000 by 2027. The firm contends that a wider “digital assets revolution,” encompassing tokenization and regulated financial infrastructure, is pushing the ongoing bull market beyond historical standards. Despite bitcoin’s approximate 6% drop in 2025, Chhugani highlighted that the year was generally positive for the crypto sector, especially for crypto-related equities and initial public offerings. Bernstein anticipates a tokenization “supercycle” on the horizon, driven by companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, Figure, and Circle, which are poised to attract ongoing institutional investment into the sector. Other market observers shared the sentiment that the downside momentum has softened.
On Sunday, it is reported that technical indicators now indicate bitcoin has entered a bullish trend, following weeks of range-bound trading during the holiday period. “There is a good opportunity for a tactical rally,” stated Sean Farrell. Farrell highlighted the enhancing liquidity environment, noting the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion and a reduction in the U.S. Treasury General Account as positive influences for risk assets like bitcoin. Fundstrat identifies a potential scenario where bitcoin could approach the $105,000 to $106,000 range, contingent on favorable market conditions. However, Farrell has advised caution, noting that his base case still anticipates the possibility of a significant drawdown in the first half of the year, followed by a more robust rally later in 2026. From a technical perspective, bitcoin wrapped up last week close to $91,500, slightly above the short-term resistance level of approximately $91,400. Experts indicate that maintaining that level might pave the way for another shot at $94,000, a resistance point that has constrained prices since mid-November.
A sustained breakout may bring $98,000 into focus, with stronger resistance extending up toward the $103,500 to $109,000 zone. Traders are closely monitoring support levels around $87,000, with a more robust range identified between $84,000 and $72,000 should selling pressure reemerge. Market sentiment has transitioned from a state of outright bearishness to a more neutral position as prices find stability. Bernstein also pointed out possible ripple effects for bitcoin proxy equities, especially Strategy. Analysts indicated that a rebound in bitcoin’s price is expected to aid in restoring Strategy’s premium to net asset value, which has notably compressed over the past year. “As concerns over MSTR’s liquidation event get resolved, we expect a strong recovery in MSTR premium to NAV towards its historical average,” the analysts stated. Historically, the strategy has traded at an average multiple-to-net asset value of 1.57, while this week it stands at approximately 1.02. Strategy has maintained its approach to financing bitcoin acquisitions via a combination of equity issuance and preferred stock offerings, while also establishing a $2.25 billion “USD Reserve” to address dividend obligations in advance. The company continues to navigate various risks, notably the possibility of being excluded from MSCI indices, a move that could lead to significant index-related outflows.
