Bitcoin Set for Major Gains Amid Ongoing Consolidation
The latest forecast indicates that the bitcoin price could rise to $143,000 next year, propelled by continued adoption through exchange-traded funds and a more favorable regulatory landscape in the U.S., anticipated to draw new capital into the market. Analysts have set a base-case target of $143,000 for the bitcoin price over the next 12 months. MarketWatch reports that they have outlined a bullish scenario projecting the price to exceed $189,000, while their bearish case anticipates a decline in the bitcoin price to approximately $78,500 should macroeconomic conditions worsen. On Friday, the bitcoin price stood at approximately $88,000, marking a decline of around 30% from its peak in late October. The recent pullback occurred after a notable surge of selling that followed this year’s rally. However, Citi noted that outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have displayed signs of moderation in recent weeks. “Our forecasts, in particular for bitcoin, rest on an assumption that investor adoption continues with flows into ETFs of $15 billion boosting token prices,” the analysts stated. The note was led by Alex Saunders, who is the head of global quantitative macro strategy at Citi.
Citi emphasized the importance of regulatory clarity in the United States as a key element affecting future demand. The U.S. Senate is presently engaged in discussions to formulate its own version of the Clarity Act, a legislative measure designed to place bitcoin under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Analysts suggest that clearer regulations may facilitate greater participation from institutional investors. The bank’s outlook is marked by pessimism, foreseeing recessionary pressures and a reduced appetite for risk assets. In November, the bitcoin price fell to multi-month lows, influenced by concerns over high technology valuations and broader macroeconomic risks that affected the markets. The cryptocurrency saw a decline exceeding $18,000 that month, marking its largest dollar drop since May 2021, prompted by considerable investor withdrawals.
Two weeks ago, the Bank of America advised its wealth management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets, indicating a significant change in its stance on Bitcoin exposure. The decision allowed over 15,000 advisers from Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge to actively recommend crypto investments to their clients. Last week, PNC Bank announced the launch of direct spot bitcoin trading for eligible Private Bank clients, allowing them to buy, hold, and sell bitcoin directly through its own digital banking platform, thereby removing the necessity for an external exchange. Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure was the driving force behind the move. Bitcoin’s recent sell-off underscores a market deeply rooted in consolidation, where positive macro catalysts fail to produce enduring gains. After a short-lived rise to $89,000 driven by unexpectedly positive U.S. inflation data, bitcoin has fallen back to around $84,000, maintaining a correction that has persisted for two months. The trend is clear: intense, data-driven surges are consistently followed by rapid pullbacks as sellers hold firm against resistance just below $90,000.
Macro signals indicate a combination of support. November CPI has cooled to 2.7% year over year, while core inflation stands at 2.6%, strengthening the case for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The backdrop was instrumental in sparking the intraday rally. Increasing U.S. unemployment and inconsistent job growth are complicating the outlook, strengthening expectations that the Fed will move forward with caution. Markets appear reluctant to incorporate substantial easing measures. A notable challenge remains with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have shifted from consistent inflows to net redemptions. The outflows remove a stabilizing bid that previously mitigated sell pressure, making it more challenging to sustain breakouts, even when positive news emerges. The bitcoin price is presently undergoing a period of range-bound movement. Resistance stands at nearly $90,000, while support near $84,000 appears to be faltering. A significant decline could open the door for a shift toward the $72,000–$68,000 range, where experts expect heightened demand. Extreme fear readings suggest a potential undervaluation; however, the prevailing momentum appears to favor sellers in the short term.
