US Unveils 15-Point Peace Plan Amid Troop Deployment to West Asia
Nearly a month into the war, the United States and Iran faced challenges in initiating negotiations over peace terms on Wednesday, with both sides asserting their dominance in the conflict and claiming that the other was eager for an exit strategy. According to diplomats, the United States has circulated a 15-point peace plan that calls for a total cessation of Iran’s nuclear program and imposes strict limitations on the scope and scale of their missile arsenal. It closely mirrored the U.S. demands from February, at a time when negotiations fell apart following the U.S. and Israel’s strike on Iran on Feb. 28. In a statement broadcast via state television, the Iranian government asserted that it would not cease hostilities unless the United States provided war reparations and acknowledged “Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.” This implies that Iran intends to maintain control over which vessels are permitted to navigate the narrow strait, while others remain stranded, unable to transport oil or fertilizer.
The communications between the two nations were being relayed by Pakistan, which was endeavoring to organize peace talks in the capital of Islamabad, suggesting dates as early as this weekend. However, neither Iran nor the United States would verify such discussions, as both aim to avoid appearing overly eager in a conflict where each seeks to showcase its dominance. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, presented a range of military metrics to argue that Iran’s forces have been significantly weakened — its navy has been sunk, its missiles destroyed before launch — and stated, “that’s why you are beginning to see the regime look for an exit ramp.” However, she subsequently cautioned that Iran’s remaining leaders will inflict further devastation on the nation “if they fail to understand that they have been defeated militarily.” In light of the failed negotiations in Geneva at the end of February, which prompted Mr. Trump to launch an attack on the country in conjunction with Israeli forces, she cautioned that “their last miscalculation cost them their senior leadership, their navy, their air force and their air defense system.” Simultaneously, the United States was poised to mobilize 2,000 paratroopers for rapid deployment to the area, in anticipation of potential further military operations — possibly taking control of the Kharg Island oil port, or ensuring the Strait remains accessible — should negotiations falter or not commence at all. The president may find that those forces provide him with increased leverage in his negotiations, while simultaneously presenting him with the choice to intensify military action. Their presence may further incite Iranian resentment, given that Mr. Trump engaged in negotiations with them twice over the past eight months, only to subsequently order the bombing of nuclear facilities and a wider assault on the nation.
However, Iran certainly did not convey the impression of a defeated regime. As the Pentagon reports on the inventory of destroyed Iranian military equipment, Tehran’s remaining military leadership has asserted new powers of control over the 21-mile-wide Strait, proudly proclaiming their capabilities. Former Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken addressed an audience at the Harvard Kennedy School on Tuesday night, stating that Iran possesses the “ability to leverage the Strait of Hormuz in ways that are profoundly disruptive and give it an asymmetric advantage in the region and indeed around the world,” even in the absence of traditional military arms. It will now possess minimal motivation to relinquish that. Diplomats in the Gulf and South Asia expressed their anticipation that Iran would oscillate between defiance and a potential willingness to engage in talks with the United States. Iranian officials expressed a desire to engage in discussions with Vice President JD Vance, who has openly conveyed his doubts regarding prolonged American involvement overseas. White House officials, including Ms. Leavitt, refrained from commenting on whether Mr. Vance would journey to Islamabad for a meeting with a senior Iranian official — presumably Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister. However, the demands articulated by Tehran appeared poised to, at the very least, impede that possibility. Ms. Leavitt emphasized that “productive” talks were in progress but refrained from providing further details or disclosing the participants involved.
Multiple iterations of the 15-point plan were in circulation across Washington and other capitals, each featuring slight variations in details. However, the essence of the American proposal aligned precisely with what Washington sought prior to the onset of the war: a complete cessation of uranium enrichment and the relocation of existing nuclear fuel stockpiles from the country, beginning with a 970-pound cache of near bomb-grade uranium, enriched to 60 percent purity. The document additionally advocates for unrestricted passage in the strait. However, it does not address regime change in Iran, the safeguarding of protesters, or the facilitation of genuine elections in the near future or beyond. President Trump’s military buildup near Iran commenced following Iran’s actions that resulted in the deaths of thousands of anti-government protesters in January, leading the president to assert, “help is on its way!” However, should he sign an agreement lacking protections for them, it may be perceived as a betrayal of his commitment to the Iranian people, whom he called upon on Feb. 28 to rise up and overthrow their government once the fighting concludes.
