Trump and advisers misjudged Iran’s war response
On February 18, as President Trump considered the possibility of military action against Iran, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, expressed in an interview that he was not worried about the potential for a looming war to disrupt oil supplies in West Asia and cause turmoil in energy markets. Even amidst the Israeli and US strikes against Iran last June, Mr. Wright remarked that there had been minimal disruption in the markets. “Oil prices experienced a brief increase before declining again,” he stated. Several of Mr. Trump’s other advisers expressed comparable sentiments in private, disregarding cautions that — in a second instance — Iran could engage in economic warfare by obstructing shipping routes that transport approximately 20 percent of the global oil supply. The extent of that miscalculation was revealed in recent days, as Iran threatened to fire at commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which all ships must pass on their way out of the Persian Gulf. In light of the Iranian threats, commercial shipping has halted in the Gulf, oil prices have surged, and the Trump administration has been working urgently to mitigate an economic crisis that has led to increased gasoline prices for Americans. The episode illustrates the significant miscalculation by Mr. Trump and his advisers regarding Iran’s reaction to a conflict perceived by the Tehran government as an existential threat. Iran has reacted with significantly greater aggression compared to its response during last June’s 12-day war, launching extensive barrages of missiles and drones targeting US military bases, cities in Arab nations throughout West Asia, and Israeli population centers.
US officials have had to adapt their strategies rapidly, from swiftly implementing the evacuation of embassies to formulating policy proposals aimed at lowering gas prices. Following a closed-door briefing for lawmakers by officials from the Trump administration on Tuesday, Senator Christopher S. Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, expressed on social media that the administration had “NO PLAN” for the Strait of Hormuz and did “not know how to get it safely back open.” Within the administration, certain officials are becoming increasingly pessimistic regarding the absence of a definitive strategy to conclude the war. However, they have been cautious in conveying that sentiment directly to the president, who has consistently asserted that the military operation is a total success. Mr. Trump has articulated ambitious goals, such as demanding that Iran appoint a leader who will acquiesce to his demands. In contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have outlined more focused and strategic objectives that could offer a potential off-ramp in the near future. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, stated that the administration “had a strong game plan” prior to the onset of the war, and assured that oil prices would decrease once it concluded. “The purposeful disruption in the oil market by the Iranian regime is short term, and necessary for the long-term gain of wiping out these terrorists and the threat they pose to America and the world,” she stated.
Mr. Hegseth acknowledged on Tuesday that Iran’s ferocious response against its neighbors took the Pentagon by surprise. However, he maintained that Iran’s actions were having unintended consequences. “I can’t say that we anticipated necessarily that’s exactly how they would react, but we knew it was a possibility,” Mr. Hegseth stated. “I believe it showcased the regime’s desperation.” Mr. Trump has expressed increasing frustration regarding the war’s impact on the oil supply, stating that oil tanker crews ought to “show some guts” and navigate through the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the war, certain military advisers cautioned that Iran might initiate an aggressive campaign in retaliation, perceiving the US-Israeli attack as a direct threat to its existence. However, other advisers maintained their confidence that eliminating Iran’s senior leadership would result in more pragmatic leaders emerging, potentially bringing an end to the war. When Mr. Trump was briefed about the risks of rising oil prices in the event of war, he acknowledged the possibility but characterized it as a short-term concern that should not overshadow the mission to decapitate the Iranian regime. He instructed Mr. Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to collaborate on formulating strategies for a possible surge in prices. However, the president refrained from addressing these options publicly — such as political risk insurance supported by the US government and the possibility of US Navy escorts — until over 48 hours had passed since the onset of the conflict. The escorts have not yet occurred.
Mr. Wright, the energy secretary, stirred the market on Tuesday by announcing on social media that the Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. His post significantly boosted stocks and provided reassurance to oil markets. Subsequently, after he removed the post following statements from administration officials denying any escorts had occurred, markets found themselves in turmoil once more. One US official stated that efforts to resume shipments have been complicated by intelligence indicating that Iran was preparing to lay mines in the strait. The Iranian operation was merely in its initial phases, yet the preparatory actions unsettled the Trump administration. The US military announced on Tuesday evening that its forces had conducted an attack on 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the strait. As the conflict has disrupted global markets, Republicans in Washington have expressed concerns regarding rising oil prices potentially undermining their efforts to promote an economic agenda to voters in the lead-up to the midterm elections. Mr. Trump has been asserting, both in public and in private discussions, that Venezuelan oil could play a crucial role in addressing any disruptions arising from the Iran war. The administration announced on Tuesday a new refinery in Texas that officials stated could aid in boosting oil supply, ensuring that Iran does not inflict any lasting harm on oil markets. The assurance expressed by White House officials regarding the potential for shipping lanes to remain open is unexpected, particularly considering that Mr. Trump sanctioned a military operation last year targeting the Houthis, an Iranian-backed Yemeni faction, which had employed missile and drone strikes to disrupt maritime trade in the Red Sea. In a social media post last March, Mr. Trump announced his authorization of military strikes against the Houthis. He stated that the attacks had cost the global economy billions of dollars, asserting that “no terrorist force will stop American commercial and naval vessels from freely sailing the Waterways of the World.” However, since the onset of the conflict in Iran, Mr. Trump has failed to provide a coherent message. In private, his aides have expressed frustration regarding his lack of discipline in conveying the objectives of the military campaign to the public.
Mr. Trump has stated that the war could extend beyond a month while also asserting that it was “very complete, pretty much.” He also stated that the United States would “go forward more determined than ever.” Mr. Rubio and Mr. Hegseth, however, seem to have aligned their messaging around three distinct goals that they started articulating in their public statements on Monday and Tuesday. “The goals of this mission are clear,” Mr. Rubio stated during a State Department event on Monday, prior to Mr. Trump conducting his own news conference. “It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers; destroy the factories that make these missiles; and destroy their navy.” The State Department clearly outlined the three goals in bullet points and showcased a video clip of Mr. Rubio articulating them on an official social media account. The presentation by Mr. Rubio, who serves as the White House national security adviser, seemed to be laying the groundwork for the president to conclude the war sooner rather than later. During his news conference, Mr. Trump asserted that the US military had successfully dismantled Iran’s ballistic missile capability and its navy. However, he also cautioned that there would be even more forceful measures taken if Iranian leaders attempted to disrupt the global energy supply.
Matthew Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser during the first Trump administration, stated in an interview that Mr. Trump had suggested he might opt to pursue ambitious war objectives that would require at least several weeks. “In his press conference, I could hear him circling back to a rationale for fighting a bit longer given that the regime is still signaling it won’t be deterred and is still trying to control the Strait of Hormuz,” said Mr. Pottinger, now the chair of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a group that advocates a close US partnership with Israel and confrontation with Iran. “He doesn’t want to have to fight a ‘sequel’ war,” Mr. Pottinger stated. The quest for solutions to the ongoing conflict has intensified following the weekend, with global oil prices rising sharply and the United States depleting its expensive stockpile of munitions. Pentagon officials disclosed in recent closed-door briefings on Capitol Hill that the military expended $5.6 billion worth of munitions within the first two days of the war, as reported by three congressional officials. The amount and munitions burn rate are significantly larger than what has been publicly disclosed. The Washington Post published a report on the figure on Monday. Iranian officials have maintained a resolute stance, asserting their intention to leverage control over the global oil supply to compel the United States and Israel to yield. “Strait of Hormuz will either be a Strait of peace and prosperity for all,” stated Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official, in a social media post on Tuesday. “Or it will be a Strait of defeat and suffering for warmongers.”
