Live Index – Thu, 30 Jul 2015 Premarket

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.06%) this morning are little changed while the EuroStoxx 50 index is up +0.47%. European stocks are higher on the rise in Eurozone economic confidence to a new 4-year high and positive earnings news. European stocks are broadly higher today with 16 of the 19 EuroStoxx 600 sectors showing gains, led by technology and oil and gas. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index today fell by -2.20%, giving back some of Wednesday’s +3.44% upward rebound. Facebook is down -2.3% this morning after its Q2 earnings report late yesterday.

The markets this morning are mainly looking ahead to today’s U.S. Q2 GDP report, which is expected to improve to +2.5% after the dismal -0.2% performance in Q1.

Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan +1.08%, Hong Kong -0.49%, China -2.20%, Taiwan +1.03%, Australia +0.81%, Singapore -1.05%, South Korea -0.96%, India +0.51%, Turkey +0.18%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.36%) this morning is up +0.341 (+0.35%) while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.20%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is +0.40% (+0.32%). The dollar index is seeing some continued strength today on expectations for a decent U.S. GDP report and yesterday’s slightly more hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement. Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.18%) are down -8 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand and caution ahead of this today’s U.S. GDP report.

Commodity prices are up +0.30% this morning. Sep crude oil (CLU15 +0.51%) this morning is up +0.45 (+0.92%) and Sep gasoline (RBU15 +1.59%) is up +0.0357 (+2.03%) on carry-over support from yesterday’s EIA report that featured a -4.2 million bbl drop in U.S. crude oil inventories and a -1.5% drop in U.S. oil production.

Metals prices are lower this morning with Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.71%) down -6.6 (-0.60%), Sep silver (SIU15 -0.87%) down -0.108 (-0.73%), and Sep copper (HGU15 -1.64%) down -0.018 (-0.73%). Grains and softs are mostly higher.

The European Commission’s July index of executive and consumer sentiment rose by +0.5 points to a new 4-year high from 103.5 in June, stronger than market expectations for a -0.3 point decline to 103.2. The July industrial confidence index rose to -2.9 from -3.4 in June. July service sector confidence rose to 8.9 from 7.9. European confidence in July received a boost from Greece’s preliminary agreement to reform conditions that should lead to a 3-year bailout agreement and avoid the chance of Greece leaving the Eurozone.

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +15,000 to 270,000 after last week’s -26,000 to 255,000) and continuing claims (expected -2,000 to 2.205 million after last week’s -9,000 to 2.207 million), (2) Q2 GDP (expected +2.5% q/q annualized after Q1’s -0.2%), and (3) the Treasury’s auction of $ 29 billion of 7-year T-notes.

There are 54 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Procter & Gamble (consensus $ 0.95), ADP (9.59), Coca-Cola Enterprises (0.76), Valero (2.42), CME Group (0.92), Time Warner Cable (1.80), Marathon Petroleum (1.75), Amgen (2.43), Electronic Arts (0.03), Fluor (1.06), Expedia (0.86).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today include: TerraForm Global (GLBL), NEP Group (NEPG), Aqua Metals (AQMS), EyeGate Pharmaceuticals (EYEG), Riverbanc Multifamily Investor (RMI).

Equity conferences this week: none.

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are little changed with support from a +0.47% rally in European stocks but downward pressure from today’s -2.20% sell-off in the China Shanghai index. Wednesday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.73%%, Dow Jones +0.69%, Nasdaq +0.44%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday extended Tuesday’s upward rebound on the +3.4% rally in the Chinese Shanghai stock index and relief that the FOMC in its post-meeting statement left its interest rate guidance virtually unchanged and did not adopt language to indicate that a rate hike is likely at the next meeting in September. Stock prices were undercut, however, by the weak June U.S. pending home sales report of -1.8% m/m versus expectations of +0.9%.

• Positive SPX earnings reports this morning include: ConocoPhillips (COP +1.26%) ($ 0.07 vs consensus of $ 0.04), Air Products (APD +0.99%) (1.65 vs 1.58), Cigna (CI -0.32%) (2.55 vs 2.25), Helmerich & Payne (HP +3.51%) (0.27 vs 0.12), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK +1.88%) (1.49 vs 1.44), Allegion (ALLE +2.18%) (0.71 vs 0.706), Alexion Pharma (ALXN -2.35%) (1.44 vs 1.39), Starwood Hotels (HOT +2.42%) (0.84 vs 0.74), Pitney Bowes (PBI +0.87%) (0.45 vs 0.44), Procter & Gamble (PG +0.49%) (1.00 vs 0.95), Cardinal Health (CAH +0.80%) (1.00 vs 0.99), DENTSPLY (XRAY +2.21%) (0.73 vs 0.68), Sealed Air (AEE +0.79%) (0.60 vs 0.53), CME Group (CME +0.88%) (0.97 vs 0.92), Delphi Automotive (DLPH +1.36%) (1.34 vs 1.339), Valero (VLO +1.49%) (2.66 vs 2.42), Coca-Cola (CCE +1.90%) (0.79 vs 0.76), SCANA (SCG +1.03%) (0.69 vs 0.67), Invesco (IVZ +1.18%) (0.62 vs 0.618).
• Negative SPX earnings reports this morning include: TECO Energy (TE +0.51%) (0.26 vs 0.267), Ball Corp (BLL +1.61%) (0.89 vs 0.94), Time Warner (TWC +0.12%) (1.54 vs 1.80), Xcel Energy (XEL +0.42%) (0.39 vs 0.396), L-3 Communications (LLL +2.02%) (1.41 vs 1.71), Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.79%) (0.70 vs 0.704), Occidental Petroleum (OXY +1.78%) (0.21 vs 0.225), Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL -0.04%) (1.01 vs 1.103), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +2.38%) (1.51 vs 1.75), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH +0.47%) (1.12 vs 1.57).
• On positive earnings news late yesterday, Skechers (SKX +3.12%) rallied 10%, Teradyne (TER +0.27%) rallied 6%, and Lam Research (LRCX -0.10%) rallied +1.5%.
• On negative earnings news late yesterday, Facebook (FB +1.78%) fell -3%, Whole Foods (WFM -0.29%) fell 11%, Lifelock (LOCK +11.15%) fell 7%, La Quinta (LQ +2.45%) fell 3%, and Whiting Petroleum (WLL +7.02%) fell 5%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices are down -8 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand and caution ahead of this today’s U.S. GDP report. Wednesday’s closes: TYU5 -6, FVU5 -2.75. Sep 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed mildly lower on reduced safe-haven demand as Chinese and U.S. stocks rallied and on supply overhang as the Treasury sells $ 105 billion of T-notes this week. T-notes found support, however, on the weak pending home sales report and relief the FOMC did not move to a more hawkish post-meeting statement.

The dollar index this morning is up +0.341 (+0.35%) while EUR/USD is down -0.0022 (-0.20%) and USD/JPY is +0.40% (+0.32%). The dollar index is seeing some continued strength today on expectations for a decent U.S. GDP report and yesterday’s slightly more hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement. Wednesday’s closes: Dollar Index +0.20 (+0.21%), EUR/USD -0.0076 (-0.69%), USD/JPY +0.38 (+0.31%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed mildly higher on technical buying and the rally in Chinese and U.S. stocks. However, the dollar was undercut by the weak U.S. pending home sales report and the dovish FOMC post-meeting statement, which suggested that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

Sep crude oil this morning is up +0.45 (+0.92%) and Sep gasoline is up +0.0357 (+2.03%) on carry-over support from yesterday’s EIA report that featured a -4.2 million bbl drop in U.S. crude oil inventories and a -1.5% drop in U.S. oil production. Wednesday’s closes: CLU5 +0.81 (+1.69%), RBU5 +0.0066 (+0.38%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed higher on the rally in Chinese stocks and EIA’s report of a -4.2 million bbl decline in U.S. crude oil inventories versus expectations for a +850,000 bbl build. Crude oil prices were also boosted by the EIA report’s -1.5% drop in U.S. oil production in the week ended July 24 to 9.413 million bpd, which is down by -2.0% the 43-year high of 9.610 million bpd posted in the first week of June.