Live Index – Tue, 13 Jan 2015 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.49%) this morning are up +0.53% and European stocks are up +1.20% as a plunge in crude oil to a new 5-1/2 year low reduces expectations of an early interest rate increase by the Fed and boosts speculation the ECB will expand stimulus to ward off deflation. Stocks also received support from a larger-than-expected increase in China Dec exports, a sign of economic strength. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.64%, Hong Kong +0.79%, China +0.01%, Taiwan +0.58%, Australia -0.33%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea +0.24%, India -0.58%. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -2.82%) is down -2.76% at a fresh 5-1/2 year low. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.56%) is down -2.55% at a 5-3/4 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.56%) is up +0.53% at a 2-1/2 month high on speculation the plunge in energy costs will raise deflation concerns and reduce the chance of a Fed interest rate increase. Mar copper (HGH15 -2.90%) is down -2.97% at a 4-1/2 year low on signs of increased supplies after LME copper inventories rose +3,925 MT to a 7-3/4 month high of 191.325 MT. Copper continues to slide despite strong demand from China after data from China’s customs office showed China 2014 copper imports rose +7.4% to a record 4.83 MMT. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%) is up +0.31%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.36%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.16%) are up +6.5 ticks at a 2-3/4 month high.

The China Dec trade balance was in surplus by +$ 49.61 billion, more than expectations of +$ 49.00 billion. Dec exports rose +9.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.0% y/y. Dec imports fell -2.4% y/y, less than expectations of -6.2% y/y.

Comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny signal he favors implementing QE when the ECB meets on Jan 22 when he said policy makers must treat the threat of deflation seriously and “we shouldn’t wait too long with a reaction.”

The German Dec wholesale price index fell -1.0% m/m, the biggest decline in 6 years. On an annual basis, Dec wholesale prices fell -2.3% y/y, the largest annual decline in 5 years.

UK Dec CPI was unch m/m and rose +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y with the +0.5% y/y increase matching the May 2000 gain as the slowest annual pace of increase on record. Dec core CPI rose +1.3% y/y, right on expectations.

The Japan Dec eco-watchers survey current rose +3.7 to 45.2, more than expectations of +2.5 to 44.0. The Dec eco-watchers survey outlook rose +2.7 to 46.7.

Today’s Nov JOLTS job openings report is expected to rise by +16,000 jobs to 4.850 million jobs, adding to October’s increase of +149,000 to 4.834 million jobs.  The Treasury today will sell $ 21 billion of 10-year T-notes.  There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  IHS (consensus $ 1.55), CSX (0.49), Linear Technology (0.49).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include:  JP Morgan Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Needham Growth Conference on Tue, Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference on Tue-Wed, and Biomarkers from Research to Clinic Conference on Fri.

Hilton (HLT -1.01%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Wells Fargo.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC -3.47%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at JPMorgan Chase.

Mosaic (MOS +0.87%) was downgraded to ‘Underperformer’ from ‘Sector Performer’ at CIBC.

Tilly’s (TLYS +0.43%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at B. Riley.

Comerica (CMA -0.96%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’ at RW Baird.

NRG Energy (NRG -1.66%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

FirstEnergy (FE -1.31%) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Valmont (VMI -0.06%) lowered its fiscal 2014 EPS view to $ 8.10-$ 8.20 from $ 8.55-$ 8.65, weaker than consensus of $ 8.60.

Paulson & Co. reported a 19.8% passive stake in International Tower Hill Mines (THM +11.90%) .

Wolverine World Wide (WWW +0.37%) said it sees fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS at the high end of $ 1.57-$ 1.63 with fiscal 2014 revenue of $ 2.76 billion, more than consensus of $ 2.74 billion.

The Leverhulme Trust reported a 5.5% stake in Unilever (UL +1.53%) .

Sensata (ST -1.51%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at Stifel with a price target of $ 60.

Nokomis Capital reported a 10.1% passive stake in WidePoint (WYY -1.94%) .

SYNNEX (SNX -1.31%) reported Q4 EPS of $ 1.83, stronger than consensus of $ 1.69, and then sais it sees Q1 EPS of $ 1.49-$ 1.54, above consensus of $ 1.45.

Alcoa (AA +0.37%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, well above consensus of 27 cents.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.49%) this morning are up +10.75 points (+0.53%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.81%, Dow Jones -0.54%, Nasdaq -1.03%. Bearish factors included (1) a slide in energy producers after the price of crude plunged to a new 5-1/2 year low, and (2) trepidation and long liquidation pressures ahead of Q4 earnings season that officially started on Monday with Alcoa’s earnings report.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks at a 2-3/4 month high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday posted a 2-3/4 month high and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +15.50, FVH5 +9.00. Supportive factors included (1) the plunge in crude oil to a 5-1/2 year low, which dampens the outlook for inflation and spurs speculation the Fed may delay an interest rate increase, (2) strong foreign demand for the Treasury’s $ 24 billion 3-year T-note auction where indirect bidders, an investor class that includes foreign central banks, bought 45.8% of the T-notes at auction, the most since Aug 2011, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stocks sold off.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%)this morning is up +0.288 (+0.31%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0043 (-0.36%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.31 (+0.26%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher: Dollar index +0.048 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00053 (-0.04%), USD/JPY -0.093 (-0.08%). Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB will announce a QE program when it convenes next week, and (2) a slide in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar.

Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 -2.82%) this morning is down -$ 1.27 a barrel (-2.76%) at a fresh 5-1/2 year low and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.56%) is down -0.0325 (-2.55%) at a 5-3/4 year low. Feb crude oil and Feb gasoline on Monday closed sharply lower with Feb crude oil at a 5-1/2 year low and Feb gasoline at a 5-3/4 year low: CLG5 -2.29 (-4.74%), RBG5 -0.0487 (-3.66%). Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) the action by Goldman Sachs to lower its price forecast for WTI crude to $ 41 per barrel in 3 months, citing excess U.S. storage capacity and the likelihood for U.S. inventories to increase in the first half of this year.