Live Index – Fri, 09 Jan 2015 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.33%) this morning are down -0.29% and European stocks are down -1.64% ahead of U.S. Dec payrolls. European stocks were undercut after German Nov industrial output unexpectedly fell along with speculation an ECB stimulus plan will fail to shore up the economy. According to a person who attended a meeting of the Governing Council, the European Central Bank staff presented policy makers with models for buying as much as 500 billion euros ($ 591) billion of investment-grade assets, less than expectations, especially after ECB President Draghi talked of the ECB’s “unlimited firepower.” Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.18%, Hong Kong +0.35%, China -0.35%, Taiwan -0.24%, Australia +1.56%, Singapore -0.20%, South Korea +0.86%, India +0.67%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index fell back from a 5-1/3 year high and closed lower on signs of a deeper economic slowdown after China Dec producer prices fell at the fastest pace in 2-1/4 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -0.47%) is down -0.47%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -0.28%) is down -0.09%. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.33%) is up +0.27%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.72%) is down -0.78% at a 4-1/2 year low on signs of weak demand amid increasing supplies. German and UK Nov industrial production unexpectedly declined, while weekly Shanghai copper inventories climbed +751 MT to an 8-1/2 month high of 112,666 MT and LME copper inventories surged +8,250 MT to a 7-3/4 month high of 187,475 MT. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) is down -0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.17%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.35%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.11%) are up +4 ticks.

China Dec CPI rose +1.5% y/y, right on expectations. Dec PPI fell -3.3% y/y, a larger decrease than expectations of -3.1% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 2-1/4 years.

German Nov industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, Nov industrial production fell -0.5% y/y, less than expectations of -0.6% y/y.

The German Nov trade balance shrank to a surplus of +17.9 billion euros, a smaller surplus than expectations of +20.4 billion euros. Nov exports fell -2.1% m/m, more than expectations of -1.0% m/m. Nov imports rose +1.5% m/m, three times more than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

UK Nov industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Nov industrial production rose +1.1% y/y, less than expectations of +1.6% y/y.

UK Nov manufacturing production rose +0.7% m/m and +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y.

Today’s Dec payroll report is expected to show an increase of +240,000 (private payrolls expected +230,000).   Today’s Dec unemployment rate is expected to fall by -0.1 point to post a new 6-1/2 year low of 5.7%.  There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today:  Acuity (consensus $ 1.13).  Equity equity conferences during the remainder of this week include:  Evercore ISI Utility Conference on Thu-Fri.

Eli Lilly (LLY +2.37%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Starwood (HOT +1.33%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at JPMorgan Chase.

Akamai (AKAM +2.34%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at B. Riley.

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK +1.90%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from Buy at Longbow.

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR +2.61%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at UBS with a price target of $ 182.

SandRidge Energy (SD -3.70%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, above consensus of 4 cents.

National Oilwell (NOV +2.98%) was initiated with an ‘Overweight’ at Barclays with a price target of $ 80.

Halliburton (HAL +2.16%) was initiated with an ‘Overweight’ at Barclays with a price target of $ 48.

Baker Hughes (BHI +0.99%) waas initiated with an ‘Overweight’ at Barclays with a price target of $ 65.

JPMorgan Chase reported a 4.9% passive stake in Brinker (EAT +0.76%) .

Nabors Industries (NBR +0.36%) and Helmerich & Payne (HP +2.25%) were both downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at KeyBanc.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +1.59%) reported Q3 EPS of $ 1.23, better than consensus of $ 1.19, and then said it sees fiscal 2014 EPS at approximately $ 5.05-$ 5.09, above consensus of $ 5.04.

Macy’s (M +0.38%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it gave guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS of $ 4.25-$ 4.35, below consensus of $ 4.36, and then said it plans to close 14 stores.

Helen of Troy (HELE +2.83%) gained over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $ 2.17, well above consensus of $ 1.57, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 adj EPS to $ 5.01-$ 5.11 from $ 4.55-$ 4.65, above consensus of $ 4.92.

PriceSmart (PSMT +1.92%) reported Q1 EPS of 68 cents, below consensus of 73 cents.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.33%) this morning are down -6.00 points (-0.29%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.79%, Dow Jones +1.84%, Nasdaq +1.94%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks on expectations the ECB will soon expand stimulus after ECB President Draghi said in a letter to European Parliament lawmaker Flanagan that any additional stimulus implemented by the ECB may include sovereign-bond purchases, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said “I don’t think we should be in a hurry to raise interest rates” as inflation may stay under the Fed’s 2.0% target for 3 to 4 years and a move to tighten too soon would be a “catastrophe.”

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.11%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -11.50, FVH5 -3.00. Bearish factors included (1) a rally in stocks that curbed the safe-haven demand for Treasuries and (2) position squaring and long liquidation pressures ahead of Friday’s all-important U.S. monthly payroll report.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is down -0.265 (-0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0020 (+0.17%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.42 (-0.35%). The dollar index on Thursday posted a new 9-year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.478 (+0.52%), EUR/USD -0.00468 (-0.40%), USD/JPY +0.416 (+0.35%). The main bullish factor was the fall in EUR/USD to a 9-year low on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus after Eurozone Nov PPI fell more than expected and after German Nov factory orders fell -2.4% m/m, three times more than expectations of -0.8% m/m. The dollar came off of its best levels after a sharp rally in stocks reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar.

Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 -0.47%) this morning is down -23 cents (-0.47%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -0.28%) is down -0.0012 (-0.09%). Feb crude oil and Feb gasoline on Thursday closed higher: CLG5 +0.14 (+0.29%), RBG5 +0.0058 (+0.43%). The main supportive factor was fund short covering spurred on by the sharp rally in stocks, which bolsters optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand. Gains were muted after the dollar index soared to a new 9-year high.