Live Index – Mon, 15 Dec 2014 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.72%) this morning are up +0.80% and European stocks are up +0.46% as energy producers gained after the price of crude oil rebounded from a 5-1/2 year low. An increase in M&A activity is also pushing stock prices higher as PetSmart jumped nearly 6% in premarket trading after it agreed to be purchased by a group led by BC Partners for $ 8.3 billion. The Russian ruble plunged to yet another record low of 59.7684 per dollar on concern that sinking oil prices and economic sanctions against Russia may tip the Russian economy into recession. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.57%, Hong Kong -0.95%, China +0.75%, Taiwan -0.46%, Australia -0.64%, Singapore -0.90%, South Korea -0.07%, India -0.11%. Japanese stocks fell after Japan’s quarterly Tankan business conditions index for large manufacturers unexpectedly fell, while Chinese stocks rose, led by a rally in construction and railway companies, on speculation the government will take more steps to support growth. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF15 +0.81%) is up +0.61% and rebounded from a fresh 5-1/2 year low after Libya’s National Oil Corp. declared force majeure at the ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf with a combined capacity of 560,000 bpd after clashes with rebels at the oil ports forced their closure. Jan gasoline (RBF15 +1.19%) is up +1.03%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.78%) is down -0.89%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.09%) is up +0.07%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.24%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.01%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.22%) are down -10 ticks.

The UAE energy minister said that OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut oil output even if crude prices fall as low as $ 40 a barrel and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.

The Japan Q4 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions unexpectedly fell to 12 from 13 in Q3, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 13.

ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said the “prospect of missing our target on price stability in the longer term” in connection with low growth would be a condition that could trigger quantitative easing.

UK Dec Rightmove house prices fell -3.3% m/m and matched the Dec 2012 decline as the biggest drop in 12 3/4 years. On an annual basis, Dec Rightmove house prices rose +7.0% y/y.

The UK Dec CBI trends total orders unexpectedly rose +2 to 5, stronger than expectations of unch at 3, Dec CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly rose +8 to 7, more than expectations of -2 to -3 and the highest in 8 months.

Today’s Nov industrial production report is expected to show a strong increase of +0.7%, rebounding from October’s weak report of -0.1% m/m.  Today’s Dec Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a small +1.84 point increase to 12.00, adding to the +3.99 point increase to 10.16 seen in November.  Today’s Dec NAHB housing market index is expected to show a +1 point increase to 59, adding to November’s +4 point increase to 58.  There is only one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today:  VeriFone (consensus $ 0.41).  Equity conferences this week include: Macquarie Mobile Corporate Day on Tue, and Sanford C. Bernstein Technology Innovation Summit on Tue-Wed.

Exxon Mobil (XOM -2.91%) was upgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Underperform’ at BMO Capital.

Oracle (ORCL -1.99%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Morgan Stanley.

PG&E (PCG -1.62%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at JPMorgan Chase.

Citigroup keeps a ‘Buy’ rating on Marriot (MAR -1.11%) and raises its price target on the stock to $ 88 from $ 76.

Entergy (ETR +1.78%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at Citigroup.

Darden Restaurants (DRI -0.78%) was upgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Underperform’ at Telsey Advisory.

United Parcel Service (UPS -0.57%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Deutsche Bank.

Encore Capital (ECPG -0.99%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at Piper Jaffray.

Cirrus Logic (CRUS -0.63%) was upgraded two notches to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Underweight’ at Barclays.

Bob Evans (BOBE +0.42%) said that CEO Steve Davis will step down.

PetSmart (PETM -0.98%) is up nearly 6% in premarket trading after a group led by BC Partners agreed to buy the company for $ 8.3 billion.

Point72 Asset reported a 5.1% passive stake in Jones Energy (JONE -1.90%) .

Discovery Capital reported a 8.9% passive stake in Bob Evans (BOBE +0.42%) .

Fitch downgraded France’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’ with a stable outlook.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.72%) this morning are up +16.00 points (+0.80%). The S&P 500 index on Friday dropped to a 5-week low and closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.62%, Dow Jones -1.79%, Nasdaq -1.11%. Negative factors included (1) concerns about a global economic slowdown after China’s Nov industrial production and the Eurozone’s Oct industrial output reports were both weaker than expected, and (2) weakness in energy producers after crude oil slumped to a 5-1/2 year low. Stock prices briefly pared losses after the University of Michigan’s early-Dec U.S. consumer confidence rose +5.0 to 93.8, more than expectations of +0.7 to 89.5 and the highest in 8 years.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.22%) this morning are down -10 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday climbed to a 1-3/4 month high and closed higher: TYH5 +21.50, FVH5 +12.75. Bullish factors included (1) the plunge in crude oil to a 5-1/2 year low, which prompted the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to tumble to a 4-1/4 year low, (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 fell to a 5-week low, and (3) carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices to an all-time high.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.136 (+0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0030 (-0.24%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.01 (-0.01%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.300 (-0.34%), EUR/USD +0.00481 (+0.39%), USD/JPY +0.101 (+0.09%). The main bearish factor was short-covering in the yen ahead of Sunday’s elections in Japan where Prime Minister Abe’s party is expected to win in a landslide, which will allow him to push ahead with his fiscal policies. The dollar rebounded from its worst levels after the University of Michigan’s early-Dec U.S. consumer confidence index unexpected rose sharply to an 8-year high.

Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 +0.81%) this morning is up +35 cents (+0.61%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 +1.19%) is up +0.0164 (+1.03%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline prices Friday sold off with Jan crude at a 5-1/2 year low and Jan gasoline at a 5-1/4 year low. Closes: CLF5 -2.14 (-3.57%), RBF5 -0.0271 (-1.67%). Bearish factors included (1) the IEA’s cut in its global oil demand forecast for the fourth time in five months as the IEA said 2015 global oil demand will grow by only 900,000 bpd to 93.3 million bpd, -230,000 bpd less than previously forecast, and (2) energy demand concerns in China, the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, after the weaker-than-expected Chinese Nov industrial production report.