Live Index – Mon, 20 Oct 2014 Premarket

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.12%) this morning are down -0.07% after IBM missed on Q3 revenue estimates and European stocks are down -1.28% as SAP SE dropped over 5% after it cut its full-year profit forecast and Royal Philips slid over 4% after it reported Q3 sales and profits that were weaker-than-expected. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +3.98%, Hong Kong +0.20%, China +0.53%, Taiwan +1.77%, Australia +0.91%, Singapore +0.42%, South Korea +1.69%, India +1.23%. Japanese stocks rallied sharply after the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan’s $ 1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund will increase its allocation target for local stocks to about 25% from the current 12%. Chinese stocks gained after a government official said the PBOC is planning to inject about 200 billion yuan ($ 32.7 billion) into banks to help them prepare for year-end liquidity needs and as Communist leaders gather for a plenum that may further economic and social reforms in an attempt to spur economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 +0.35%) is up +0.05%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.03%) is down -0.14%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.51%) is up +0.30%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.92%) is down -1.03%. Agriculture prices are lower on speculation dry weather in the Midwest sped up the pace of the U.S. harvest. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is up +0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.20%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.07%) are down -2 ticks.

German Sep PPI was unchanged m/m and down -1.0% y/y, right on expectations. German producer prices have now held steady or fallen for 10 consecutive months and the -1.0% y/y drop was the largest year-over-year decline in 8 months.

The UK Oct Rightmove house prices rose +2.6% m/m, the largest increase in 5 months, and on an annual basis rose +7.6% y/y.

Japan Sep nationwide department store sales fell -0.7% y/y, the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

The Japan leading index CI was revised upward to 104.4 from the originally reported 104.0. The Aug coincident index was revised downward to 108.3 from the originally reported 108.5, the lowest level in 13 months.

There are no U.S. economic reports today.  There are 10 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today:  Apple (consensus $ 1.30), IBM (4.32), Gannett (0.55), Genuine Parts (1.24), Halliburton (1.10), Hasbro (1.45), VF Corp (1.10), Texas Instruments (0.71), Chipotle (3.83), Zions Bancorporate (0.44).  Equity conferences this week include:  LME Metals Seminar 2014 on Monday, and Latin Markets Private Wealth Latin America and the Caribbean Forum on Thu.

International Business Machines (IBM +1.23%) reported Q3 EPS of $ 3.68, well below consensus of $ 4.32.

Halliburton (HAL +2.79%) reported Q3 EPS of $ 1.19, better than consensus of $ 1.10.

Hasbro (HAS -0.66%) reported Q3 EPS of $ 1.46, higher than consensus of $ 1.45.

E-Trade (ETFC +1.21%) was upgraded to ‘Conviction Buy’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX +0.33%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at Citigroup.

Newmont Mining (NEM -1.41%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup.

Cliffs Natural (CLF -8.00%) downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup.

Swift Transport (SWFT +4.02%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup.

Anerican International Group (AIG +2.75%) rose over 1% in pre-market trading after Deutsche Bank AG upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold.’

Longview Asset reported a 9.97% stake in General Dynamics (GD +2.56%) .

RA Capital reported a 8.3% passive stake in TG Therapeutics (TGTX unch) .

Advanced Technology Ventures VIII reported an 11.8% stake in Calithera Biosciences (CALA +7.13%) .

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.12%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.07%). The S&P 500 index on Friday closed higher: S&P 500 +1.29%, Dow Jones +1.63%, Nasdaq +1.33%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks on the prospects of additional ECB stimulus after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the central bank will start “within the next days” to purchase assets in the new program to support the economy, (2) the +6.3% increase in U.S. Sep housing starts to 1.017 million, stronger etter than expectations of +5.4% to 1.008 million, and (3) the unexpected +1.8 point increase in the U.S. Oct University of Michigan consumer confidence to a 7-1/4 year high of 86.4, better than expectations of -0.6 to 84.0.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.07%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed lower. Closes: TYZ4 -13.00, FVZ4 -7.00. Negative factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Sep housing starts, (2) the unexpected increase in the Oct University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence index to a 7-1/4 year high, and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks rallied.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is up +0.024 (+0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0025 (+0.20%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02 (-0.02%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.155 (+0.18%), EUR/USD -0.00513 (-0.40%), USD/JPY +0.541 (+0.51%). Supportive factors included (1) signs of U.S. economic strength after Sep housing starts rose more than expected and the Oct University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to a 7-1/4 year high, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD on euro-negative comments from ECB Executive Board member Coeure who said the central bank will start “within the next days” to purchase assets in the new program to support the economy.

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 +0.35%) this morning is up +4 cents (+0.05%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.03%) is down -0.0032 (-0.14%). Nov crude and Nov gasoline on Friday settled higher. Closes: CLX4 +0.05 (+0.06%), RBXX4 +0.0218 (+0.99%). Bullish factors included (1) stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports on Sep housing starts and U.S. consumer confidence, and (2) the rally in stocks which bolstered optimism in the economic outlook. A rally in the dollar index took energy prices off of their best levels.