Gaze Into the 2018 Fortune Crystal Ball
6. Tech’s Peril and Promise in 2018
Next year, incredible innovations, intrepid hackers, and executive infighting will leave their mark on Silicon Valley and beyond.
Facebook finally admits it’s a media company
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a tech company. Right? Facebook insists it’s not a media business, despite evidence proving otherwise: fake news frustrations, editors as employees, $ 27 billion in annual advertising revenue. Next year, look for it to drop its resistance to the moniker, even though that could open it up to more regulation.
Apple breaks records
In November, supplies of the Apple’s $ 999 iPhone X sold out in hours (only to turn up on eBay for up to $ 8,000). In 2018, expect the X to help Apple finally beat its 2015 phone sales record.
The sheer number of health apps will cause you trauma
There’s a health app for just about everything these days. Robo-therapy? Diabetes assistance? Rare disease support groups? Check, check, check. Global mobile health venture funding reached a record $ 1.3 billion last year, according to Mercom. The field will continue to boom in 2018 (the total global market could exceed $ 100 billion by 2022), especially as the FDA moves to make it easier for mobile health apps to reach the market.
Travis Kalanick resurfaces
Americans love second acts. Kalanick, the epitome for good and ill of the American entrepreneur, will get his this year. He’s still on the Uber board of directors, and IPO preparations will include Kalanick, a master fundraiser and spinner of the Uber narrative.
Bitcoin crashes! Bitcoin hits all-time highs!
It’s been a banner year for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, but mark our words: A crash is coming. Expect the price of one Bitcoin to tumble from its current heights above $ 6,500, to around $ 5,000. And then, after the fall, watch the price rebound to above $ 20,000 by the end of 2018. That’s our bet, but we wouldn’t put all our tokens on it. We’ll leave that to the institutional investors, like mutual funds and banks, who are taking cryptocurrency increasingly seriously.
Online dating pivots to video
As more media companies make the leap into video, dating apps are doing the same. In 2017, Hinge began allowing users to upload 30-second films, Bumble launched a video-chat feature, and even good old Match.com is adding a new “Story” option, with minute-long, live-action compilations. Millennials, already primed by Instagram and Snapchat to share their lives with strangers, will embrace the features as their new normal.
Amazon Keeps Eating the World
Hot on the heels of its acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Amazon will keep bolstering its physical presence to speed up delivery. That could mean buying more retail chains with big footprints like Kohl’s or Office Depot.
These Three Companies Will Make Your City Beg to Host Them
Amazon got plenty of positive press (and offers of tax breaks) when it said it was looking for another HQ. More companies will follow its lead in 2018. Looking at you, Facebook, Nvidia, and Alibaba.
Walmart snaps up more trendy companies
As Walmart revamps its website to counter Amazon, its acquisitions of small but hot online brands will continue. Expect to see deals for stalwarts like eyeglass maker Warby Parker and clothiers Everlane and Untuckit. The bids will help Walmart reach the higher-income customer it so covets.
The odds
Long shot: Bullying concerns plague a hot new Postmates/Sarahah-hybrid app, where gig economy workers hand-deliver anonymous notes.
Slam dunk: Another company with a staggering amount of your private information gets hacked.
